Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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386 FXUS62 KMLB 110553 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 153 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 150 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Generally VFR conditions become MVFR at most sites beyond 12z. VCSH looks most probable thru this time as well, with a gradual uptick in SHRA/VCTS 12z-15z and beyond. IFR CIG/VIS is possible due to pockets of heavier RA and isolated TSRA, with decreasing TS/VCTS coverage 21z-00z. Winds remain 10-12 kt with gusts 15-20 kt thru the day, gradually veering from SSW to S by 21z. Lower confidence in SHRA exists after 00z, though the highest chances appear to be from MLB southward. This is handled by VCSH until confidence increases in lower rain chances. && .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop on lingering outflow boundaries from earlier convection as of around 930pm. Locally heavy rainfall has already been observed over portions of northeastern Orange and southeastern Seminole Counties, where rainfall totals have reached up to 5-5.5" in some spots. Rain chances will continue overnight, with CAMs supporting repeated rounds of showers, with embedded lightning storms. PoPs overnight generally 40-60%, with the highest coverage expected south of Orlando. A brief lull in activity will be possible after midnight, before coverage increases once again towards daybreak. Gusty winds and lightning strikes will remain possible in any thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall will be a threat in areas that see multiple rounds of showers and storms or persistent cells, as has been the case in Orange and Seminole Counties this evening. Precipitation and high cloud cover will keep overnight lows in the lower to mid-70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Tonight...Poor boating conditions offshore this evening, as southerly winds increase up to 15-20 knots, mainly offshore of Volusia and Brevard counties. Otherwise, wind speeds 10-15 knots as they veer to the southwest overnight. Seas 2-3 feet. Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and storms will continue through this evening, with a few stronger storms possible. Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Pattern remains fairly static through Friday. SWrly winds Tuesday shift to Srly Wednesday and Thursday, then start to shift to the SE Friday as high pressure over the Atlantic builds back. Winds speeds increase up to 15-20 knots into Tuesday night, but otherwise will generally range from 10-15 knots. High rain chances through the period with rounds of SCT- NUM showers and lightning storms. High cloud cover will prevent meaningful development of the sea breeze. Seas generally 1-3 ft outside of storms, increasing up to 2-4 ft Tuesday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Increased moisture and shower and storm chances, as well as greater cloud cover will lead to near to below normal highs in the mid to upper 80s through the remainder of the week. This will keep Min RH values well above critical levels. Improvement of drought conditions will also occur across areas that receive heavier rainfall. Main concern from storms will be lightning strikes that may be able to start new fires, and gusty winds that could lead to control issues from any existing brush fires. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 73 87 73 / 80 60 80 60 MCO 84 74 86 74 / 90 70 90 70 MLB 85 74 85 74 / 90 80 90 70 VRB 85 73 86 73 / 90 80 90 80 LEE 87 76 89 75 / 80 60 80 60 SFB 86 74 88 74 / 80 60 80 60 ORL 84 75 87 75 / 90 60 90 60 FPR 84 73 86 73 / 90 80 90 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Leahy AVIATION...Schaper