059
FXUS62 KMLB 101955
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

-Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop through late
afternoon and this evening, with a few stronger storms possible.

-Higher coverage of showers and storms from Tuesday onward this week
will produce rounds of heavy rainfall and lead to the potential for
localized flooding.

-Increased cloud cover and rainfall will lead to a drop in maximum
temperatures through the rest of the week, with highs near to below
normal.

Currently-Tonight...Showers and storms will continue to increase in
coverage through the remainder of the afternoon, becoming scattered
to numerous. Some stronger storms will still be possible, especially
with storm/boundary interactions with the east coast sea breeze.
Main threat will continue to be frequent lightning strikes, gusty
winds up to 40 to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall. This activity
will largely diminish or push offshore through late evening, but
there will be some lingering shower and storm chances overnight, as
deep tropical moisture continues to lift northeast across the area.
CAM guidance seems to indicate there will at least be somewhat of
a break initially, but then showers and storms begin to increase
once again late in the night toward daybreak Tuesday, pushing
east- northeast into the area. Gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall will again be possible with any persistent or repeated
rounds of storms. Mostly cloudy conditions forecast overnight,
with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Friday...Models show an area of low pressure developing
along a weak front north of the area early Tuesday, with this
feature shifting eastward in the morning. The pressure gradient
tightens between this feature and subtropical high pressure
southeast of Florida, with low level S/SW winds increasing and
pulling deeper tropical moisture northward into the area. PW values
rise up to 2.2-2.5 inches, with moisture remaining elevated across
the area through late week as the weak front remains just north or
begins to push into northern portions of east central Florida. Rain
chances remain high through the period (PoPs up to 80-90 percent)
each day, with repeated rounds of showers and storms possible. Main
storm threats will be gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes and
locally heavy downpours.

Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts up to
4 inches will continue to be possible each day. Forecasted total
amounts for Tuesday through Friday night have been nudged down
only slightly, with amounts of 4-7 inches from Osceola/southern
Brevard counties southward and 2-3 inches across northern portions
of east central FL. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a
Marginal to Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across all of ECFL
through the period. While convection will be enhanced during the
daytime period, there may be some continuation of showers and
storms through the overnight hours. Very dry antecedent
conditions with moderate to severe drought conditions in place
will initially be able to handle some of the heavier rainfall, but
localized urban and poor drainage flooding concerns will continue
to grow through mid week onward, depending on overall amounts.

Increased cloud cover and greater coverage of showers and storms
will allow maximum temperatures to drop to near to below normal
values, ranging from the mid to upper 80s for most areas. The moist
humid airmass will maintain mild overnight lows in the low to mid
70s.

Saturday-Sunday...(Previous Discussion) Guidance has further
diverged and further decreased forecast confidence going into the
weekend. GFS develops a surface cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico,
while the ECM develops little more than a wave. This results in a
much drier solution from the GFS while the ECM keeps some moisture
across the area and continues rain chances. Official forecast
reflects a compromise blend between the two, keeping relatively
high rain chances and near to below normal temperatures through
the weekend, but changes are likely as we drawn nearer.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Tonight...Poor boating conditions offshore this evening, as
southerly winds increase up to 15-20 knots, mainly offshore of
Volusia and Brevard counties. Otherwise, wind speeds 10-15 knots
as they veer to the southwest overnight. Seas 2-3 feet. Scattered
to numerous offshore moving showers and storms will continue
through this evening, with a few stronger storms possible.

Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Pattern remains
fairly static through Friday. SWrly winds Tuesday shift to Srly
Wednesday and Thursday, then start to shift to the SE Friday as
high pressure over the Atlantic builds back. Winds speeds increase
up to 15-20 knots into Tuesday night, but otherwise will
generally range from 10-15 knots. High rain chances through the
period with rounds of SCT- NUM showers and lightning storms. High
cloud cover will prevent meaningful development of the sea breeze.
Seas generally 1-3 ft outside of storms, increasing up to 2-4 ft
Tuesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Increased moisture and shower and storm chances, as well as
greater cloud cover will lead to near to below normal highs in the
mid to upper 80s through the remainder of the week. This will
keep Min RH values well above critical levels. Improvement of
drought conditions will also occur across areas that receive
heavier rainfall. Main concern from storms will be lightning
strikes that may be able to start new fires, and gusty winds that
could lead to control issues from any existing brush fires.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VCTS at all terminals this afternoon. TSRA TEMPOs from SFB southward
this afternoon including MVFR VIS and CIGs. A seabreeze has
developed from MLB southward backing winds onshore. Southwest
winds around 8-10kts ahead of the seabreeze. VCTS diminishing to
VCSH around 02/04Z. High coverage of -RA with occasional VCTS is
forecast early Tuesday morning along with prevailing MVFR CIGs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Record high temperatures (including last year set) for today,
June 10th:

Daytona Beach  100 1981
Leesburg        96 2007
Sanford         99 1985
Orlando         99 1907
Melbourne       96 1981
Vero Beach      95 2007
Fort Pierce     97 1948

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  73  89 /  40  80  50  80
MCO  76  85  74  86 /  50  80  50  80
MLB  75  86  73  87 /  60  90  70  90
VRB  74  86  72  87 /  60  90  70  90
LEE  76  89  76  90 /  40  70  40  80
SFB  76  88  75  89 /  40  80  50  80
ORL  77  86  75  88 /  50  80  50  80
FPR  74  86  72  87 /  60  90  70  90

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Law