Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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898 FXUS62 KMLB 090621 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 221 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 153 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light WNW-WSW winds once again favor a diffuse WCSB, forecast to reach KLEE ~17Z and increase winds to 5-10 kts. ECSB reaches the coastal terminals between 16Z-20Z, earliest to the south, shifting winds initially ESE ~10kts then veering to SE-SSE at 10-15 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts by around 22Z. Sea breeze collision forecast near KSFB and near or east of KMCO/KISM ~23Z-00Z. Winds become light/VRB after 02Z. ISO TSRA/SHRA expected along the sea breeze collision generally west of the coastal terminals and south of the inland terminals, but can`t rule out a brief TSRA impact so continuing with VCTS mention at all terminals but KLEE/KDAB. && .UPDATE... Issued at 946 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Current-Tonight... Similar to yesterday, with hot and humid conditions prevailing and a slight downward trend in convection. High temperatures reached in the mid to upper 90s today, with record high temperatures reached at Ft. Pierce, Sanford, and Leesburg. The east coast sea breeze formed this afternoon and pushed inland, with isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms forming along the sea breeze, outflow boundaries, and collisions late this afternoon and into the evening. The majority of convection occurred across the southern portion of the CWA, with activity moving up from south Florida into the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee counties. These storms produced gusty winds, frequent lightning and moderate rainfall. Activity has diminished this evening, with any lingering activity expected to dissipate or push offshore over the next hour or two. Overnight, expect mostly dry conditions, with rain chances 10 percent or less. Southeast winds around 10 mph this evening will become light and from the southwest overnight with mostly clear skies after midnight. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Due to the light winds and high humidity, patchy fog will be possible across portions of east central Florida late tonight and into early Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Tonight-Sunday...Favorable boating conditions persist outside of convection with light offshore winds becoming southeast 10-15 knots in the afternoon with seas 2 ft. Most likely area for lightning storms will be south of Sebastian Inlet today and tomorrow. Monday-Wednesday...WSW surface flow continues thru midweek with winds backing SE and increasing to 15-17 kt each afternoon/evening behind the sea breeze. Generally favorable boating conditions are expected, though the chance for locally heavy rain and lightning storms increases each day through the period. Seas 2-3 ft, except where locally higher in the vicinity of lightning storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Today-Monday...Fire sensitive conditions will continue over the next couple of days as abnormally hot temperatures combine with lower dewpoints as well antecedent dry soil. Sensitivity will be enhanced by the daily threat for lightning storms, driven by the sea and lake breeze interactions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 97 74 96 74 / 10 0 40 40 MCO 97 76 95 76 / 20 10 60 50 MLB 93 76 93 75 / 30 10 70 50 VRB 93 75 93 74 / 30 20 70 60 LEE 98 75 96 76 / 10 10 40 40 SFB 99 75 97 75 / 10 10 50 40 ORL 98 76 96 76 / 20 10 50 40 FPR 93 75 93 74 / 30 20 70 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Watson AVIATION...Haley