131
FXUS62 KMLB 120542
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
142 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Light precip south of KMCO early this morning, but will watch
heavy convective band east of KTBW if it can make it towards KISM,
KMCO. Otherwise, models suggest re-development near KMLB
southward and will monitor if this occurs ahead of sunrise. Also,
have to contend with CIG reductions to 010-020 thru the early
daylight hours. May have some improvement to CIGs later this
morning, but confidence is low here with present messy wx pattern.
The high coverage of showers (embedded thunder - esp this aftn)
continues today. Have included TEMPOs throughout the day for
higher convective coverage. MVFR CIGs look to return after sunset
this evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Scattered to numerous showers continue over south central and
south Florida, this evening, as a stationary front remains north
of the area. Invest 90L can clearly be seen spinning just off of
the coast from Tampa Bay on both radar and satellite imagery as of
around 10pm. NHC continues to give this feature only a 20% chance
of tropical formation over the next 7 days as it crosses the
Florida peninsula and enters the western Atlantic.

While showers have largely diminished north of the Treasure Coast
and Okeechobee County this evening, models forecast 90L to
finally move onshore from the GOMEX shortly after midnight, then
move northwestward across the peninsula overnight and through
Wednesday morning. As the center of the low approaches the area,
CAMs support an increase in showers late tonight from south to
north. A few lightning storms will remain possible. Will need to
watch any convection near the center of the low for enhanced
rainfall amounts, which have already been observed along the coast
of Sarasota and Manatee Counties this afternoon and evening.
Nonetheless, locally heavy rainfall will remain a threat across
the area overnight, especially in areas that see slow moving cells
or multiple rounds of stronger showers and storms. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1-2", with locally higher amounts possible,
could lead to minor flooding overnight. Morning lows are forecast
in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 417 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Tonight...Boating conditions will be poor to hazardous across the
coastal waters. Went with a short fused Small Craft Advisory for
the offshore waters of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast for
the remainder of the afternoon through much of tonight. S/SW winds
at buoy 41009 have been reaching around 20 knots already and some
guidance indicates that speeds around 20 to 25 knot will continue
into tonight. Over the nearshore waters of Brevard County and the
Treasure Coast, as well as offshore of Volusia County, small
craft should exercise caution for wind speeds up to 15-20 knots.
Across the nearshore waters of Volusia County wind speeds will be
around 10 to 15 knots. Seas will continue to build up to 3-5 feet,
with occasional seas up to 6 feet offshore.

Wednesday-Saturday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Subtle shifts
in the position of the Atlantic ridge axis and a bit of
uncertainty in the development of the disturbance/low pressure
system off the southeastern seaboard decrease confidence in the
surface wind forecast. Winds should generally remain Srly at 10-15
kts after they settle Wednesday afternoon, but how far SWrly or
SErly winds become, and further increases to 15-20 kts, will
depend on evolution of the aforementioned features. Better
confidence the period will remain wet with SCT-NUM showers and SCT
lightning storms moving offshore, and that while conditions could
become poor, they should remain below advisory levels. Seas 2-4
ft Wednesday-Thursday settle to 1-3 ft Friday-Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  73  89  73 /  70  60  80  50
MCO  87  74  86  74 /  80  60  80  60
MLB  87  74  86  73 /  80  70  80  70
VRB  87  74  87  73 /  80  80  80  70
LEE  89  76  89  75 /  80  60  80  50
SFB  89  75  89  74 /  80  60  80  50
ORL  88  75  88  75 /  80  60  80  50
FPR  87  73  86  72 /  80  80  80  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Sedlock