447
FXUS62 KMLB 301848
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
248 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...Hot temperatures Continue this Afternoon, with Mid 90s over the
interior...

...Onshore Breezes Will Lessen Heat Impacts this Weekend, and Drier
Air Limits Rain Potential...

Current-Tonight...Afternoon temps realizing in the U80s to L90s near
the coast and generally M90s inland. Peak heat indices in the 90s,
but will approach 100F toward Lake Okeechobee. A weak, hard to
discern frontal boundary from yesterday lingers across south-central
FL with moisture pooling along it. The moisture gradient will be
fairly tight with highest PWATs from 1.70-2.00 inches south from
near Melbourne. As such, greatest afternoon-early evening
convection potential (20-30pct) will exist south of Orlando and
southwest of Melbourne. Primary storm concerns will be lightning
strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Some mid-level
energy, cooler temps aloft (-8.0C to -10.0C), and the inland
moving ECSB will aid in development. Activity that does develop
will wind down by mid-evening. Otherwise mainly dry elsewhere and
continued hot. Conditions remain warm/humid overnight with mins
in the U60s to L70s and M-U70s for the barrier islands.

Fri-Fri Night...Surface high pressure builds out of the Ohio Valley
and toward the mid Atlc and SE coast. With lower pressures
southward, this will create a tightening pressure gradient
producing breezy/gusty NERLY winds, pushing a diffuse ECSB
quickly inland with the collision occurring on the western half of
the peninsula. The earlier onset of the sea breeze will finally
provide a small amount of relief from the heat with highs in the
u80s to near 90F along the coast and L-M90s inland. Rain chances
10-20pct across coastal counties and only up to a 30-40pct threat
into the far interior (Kissimmee River and Lake County). Overnight
mins remain persistent and in the U60s to L70s.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified...

Sat-Wed...High pressure ridge builds into the western Atlc and
considerable dry air is forecast to move in from the east. Have a
small PoP southward Sat/Sun, but confidence is low. The east
coast sea breeze will remain dominant in prevailing onshore flow,
increasing 15-20 mph this weekend, with higher gusts. Stronger
onshore flow will help to keep high temperatures near normal, in
the mid to upper 80s coast and near 90/lower 90s inland. The dry
airmass will gradually modify next week with rain chances slowly
increasing 20-30 percent Mon, 30-40 percent Tue/Wed. Temperatures
will also begin a slow climb but not getting as hot as it has
been.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Remainder of Afternoon-Tonight...Any precip chances will remain
across the Treasure Coast waters but percentages are low. Onshore
flow this afternoon 10-12 kts becoming light/variable this evening
and overnight. Seas continue 1-2 ft, perhaps up to 3 ft at times
well offshore Cape northward.

Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion...

Fri-Mon...Boating conditions will deteriorate slightly into this
weekend, as high pressure builds south down the eastern seaboard
then shifts off the Carolina coast. Onshore winds increase 15 kts
and even 15-20 kts at times Fri night/Sat. Slight rain chances,
mainly over the Gulf Stream. Seas 2-3 ft Fri will build 3-5 ft Fri
night-Sat, and 3-4 FT Sun-Mon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Remainder of afternoon...Min RH values are forecast to reach
between 25-30% north of I-4 corridor, especially Lake County while
rising to 40-50% along the coast. Onshore afternoon (northeast to
east) winds 10 to 15 mph, with Very Good to Excellent dispersion.
There will be a small threat for ISOLD-WDLY SCT afternoon-early
evening lightning storms mainly in Osceola and Okeechobee
counties.

Fri-Mon...Min RH values will hold around 35% Fri over the interior
and this will persist through the weekend. Very sensitive fire
weather conditions will continue, as onshore winds are forecast
to increase to around 15 mph and gusty while rain chances remain
very low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Northeast winds this
afternoon will increase to around 12 KT with gusts up to 20 KT
possible, especially across the Treasure Coast. Few mid to high
level clouds streaming overhead today. Winds will become light
and variable tonight before becoming NE once again around 10 KT on
Friday. Breezy conditions are expected to develop Friday
afternoon, with winds increasing to 10-15 KT in the mid morning
with gusts to around 20 KT possible, especially in the afternoon.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible Friday
afternoon, especially across the interior. Have included VCTS for
MCO starting at 18Z and will likely add VC wording for the other
sites in later packages. TEMPOs may be added later depending on
timing and coverage confidence.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  88  72  85 /  10  20   0  10
MCO  71  92  72  87 /  10  30  10  10
MLB  73  88  74  86 /  10  20  10  10
VRB  71  89  72  87 /  10  20  10  20
LEE  71  93  70  89 /  10  30   0  10
SFB  71  91  70  88 /  10  20   0  10
ORL  73  92  72  88 /  10  30  10  10
FPR  71  89  72  87 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Watson