434
FXUS62 KMLB 251456
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1056 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Forecast remains on track for a stormy afternoon for some, and a
hot day for everyone. SPC has expanded the Marginal risk (level 1
of 5) for severe thunderstorms west a bit, now including all of
Okeechobee and southern Osceola counties to the Kissimmee River.
Strong to marginally severe winds remain the primary threat due to
the potential for dry air entrainment to enhance downdrafts
(DCAPE values 1,000-1,500 J/kg), producing gusts 40-50 mph and
possibly locally damaging gusts over 60 mph. There could be a very
localized threat for hail up to 1", with mesoscale guidance
periodically analyzing SHIP bull`s eyes up to 1.0 along the sea
breeze from Melbourne south, but increasing mid-level
temperatures will keep this hazard fairly limited. There should be
enough low-level westerly flow to help storms move along and
offshore, but can`t rule out some near stationary back builders,
which combined with heavy rainfall as PWATs approach 1.6", could
lead to some localized minor flooding. All storms will be capable
of occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning.

As for the rest of the forecast, hot. Southwesterly to westerly
flow will push temperatures inland into the M-U90s, and hold off
the east coast sea breeze long enough for the coastal corridor to
reach the U80-L90s by around 2 PM, which then drop back a bit once
the sea breeze pushes inland. For what it`s worth, all climate
sites are forecast 3-5 degrees short of their high temperature
records, so not quite record breaking heat, but still plenty hot
enough folks should be mindful of how long they`ve been in the
sun, drink plenty of water, and take breaks in the shade.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1053 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Rest of Today-Tonight...Favorable winds and seas, but isolated to
scattered offshore moving lightning storms are expected to push
offshore in the late afternoon and evening, then work eastward
across the waters through the early overnight. Some of these
storms could become strong, capable of gusty winds over 35 kts and
locally higher seas. The ridge axis of weak, broad high pressure
will remain south of the local Atlantic waters, producing light
SW-WSW winds this morning that back to SE-ESE at around 10 kts in
the afternoon after the sea breeze develops, returning to light
SW-WSW late tonight. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 734 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Light SW-W winds today will favor the WCSB and slow the ECSB,
resulting in a collision near MCO/ISM around 21Z. Coastal
terminals turn onshore at around 10 kts around 17Z, KSFB around
19Z, while MCO/KISM/KLEE remain W 5-10 kts. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA
INVOF the sea breeze collision starting around 19Z. Higher
confidence of SCT coverage from KMLB south, so have shipped
TEMPOs for TSRA impacts at KMLB-KSUA, but keeping terminals to
the north at VCTS with this package. TSRA/SHRA clear by 00Z-02Z,
then VFR conditions with light and VRB winds prevail overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Warm temperatures across the Florida peninsula will persist this
weekend into the beginning of next week, leading to sensitive fire
weather concerns. Across the interior, minimum RH values between 35
to 45 percent are forecast each afternoon through at least Thursday.
Winds are forecast to remain below 15 mph through the period.
Lightning storm development will be possible today and again Tuesday
through Thursday along the sea breeze.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  71  93  72 /  20  10  10   0
MCO  95  72  97  73 /  30  10  20   0
MLB  90  73  90  74 /  30  20  20  10
VRB  91  71  92  73 /  40  20  20  10
LEE  94  73  95  74 /  20  10  10   0
SFB  95  72  95  74 /  30  10  10   0
ORL  95  73  96  75 /  30  10  20   0
FPR  92  71  93  72 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Leahy