835
FXUS64 KOHX 271956 AAA
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
256 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

With some "Pinpoint Convection" developing to our west over the
last hour, introduced a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
through remainder of afternoon hours across mid state region as
weak upper level shortwave is expected to move across our area
during this time period. Convection should end by around sunset
tonight. Increased cloud coverage slightly through remainder of
afternoon hours also. Remainder of forecast continues to be on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

CAMs hinting at maybe some isolated convection developing upstream
from mid state region in a quasi upper level zonal flow pattern
and traversing west to east across our area as afternoon hours
progress today. As of this time, will continue with dry conditions
and reevaluate this possiblity based on regional radar mosiac
imagery and latest CAMs trends per next scheduled grids update
between 2 PM - 3PM this afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions look
to prevail through Tuesday as dry surface cold front continues to
push southeastward across our area eventually moving southeast of
mid state region by the mid afternoon hours today. Surface high
pressure influences to our west will move eastward into our area
as Tuesday progresses with a reinforcing colder high pressure
airmass centered across southern Manitoba, Canada continuing it
shift southward. Aloft, a more southwesterly dry flow aloft
pattern will develops as tonight into Tuesday progresses. With all
this said, still expecting highs later today to top out in low to
mid 80s, upper 70s to around 80 for locations across and just
west of Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows tonight will be around
seasonal normal values ranging upper 50s to lower 60s, mid 50s
Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs on Tuesday look like they will be
a carbon copy of those experienced this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Lows Tuesday night will range from upper 50s to lower 60s, mid
50s for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau
Region as a cold air advection pattern begins. These Canadian
based high pressure influences will broaden out across much of
eastern CONUS and slowly shift southeastward as long term
forecast period progresses. Dry northwesterly flow continues aloft
will continue at least through the afternoon hours on Thursday.
As a result, highs are expected to be a few degrees below seasonal
values on Wednesday afternoon ranging mainly in upper 70s, mid
70s Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows Wednesday night will really
reflect brunt of this cold air advection pattern scenario with
lows quite seasonably cool ranging mid 50s, even down into upper
40s to lower 50s Upper Cumberland Region. It could be worse, our
friends across Upper MI near surface high pressure center will be
experiencing temperatures Wednesday Night in the upper 30s!
Coldest highs of entire forecast period look to occur on Thursday
with highs mainly mid to upper 70s, and a carbon copy of Wednesday
Nights lows again look to be experienced Thursday night across
our region too. Eventually these surface high pressure influences
will shift into central Atlantic states area by Sunday and then
off the U.S. East Coast by early next work week. This will result
in a more southerly low level atmospheric flow pattern developing
across much of eastern half of CONUS with possibly a weak surface
frontal system approaching from southern MS River Valley Region by
shortly after sunrise on Sunday morning. Building out of the
central CONUS, a pronounced upper level ridging influences should
continue to keep mid state dry through Friday evening. However,
look for a warming trend to commence as Friday progresses with
temperatures rising to around seasonal normal values by next
Monday afternoon. As those upper level ridging influences shift
eastward Friday evening, and a more disorganized upper level
pattern prevails across our area, shower and thunderstorm chances
will return to mid state region late Friday night and continue
through weekend into first part of next work week. Despite this
unsettled weather pattern developing across our area, total
expected rainfall amounts from late Friday night through first
part of next work week look initially to only range from around
0.25" eastern portions of our area to approaching around 0.75" TN
River Valley Region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Lingering MVFR cigs from this morning will gradually improve
through early this afternoon with VFR then prevailing. Westerly to
northwesterly winds will be gusty through sunset near 20 knots at
times. Patchy fog is possible along the Plateau after 06Z.
Confidence is low in how widespread it may be, but did include
patchy fog and MVFR visibilities for KCSV and KSRB until sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  85  60  80 /  20   0   0   0
Clarksville    61  82  58  78 /  20   0   0   0
Crossville     56  77  53  74 /  20   0   0   0
Columbia       61  84  58  80 /  20   0   0   0
Cookeville     58  79  55  75 /  20   0   0   0
Jamestown      56  77  53  74 /  20   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   61  83  58  80 /  20   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   61  84  58  80 /  20   0   0   0
Waverly        61  83  58  79 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Clements