Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 292031
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
331 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Quite the nice July day...err wait a second...that`s not exactly
right. Nashville has officially hit "at least" 91 degrees today,
on April 29th. That`s an entire month earlier than the average
first 90F temperature we typically see here in Middle Tennessee!
Now that we`ve survived through today (and again some warm and
humid temps tomorrow), we`re going to be rewarded with average to
maybe even below average temperatures much of next week. Ahhhhh...

Until then, we`ll need to get through the next 48 hours or so as
a cold front approaches Middle Tennessee on Sunday bringing
widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area. The atmosphere
should be fairly capped for much of Sunday until that front moves
closer to the area. So the main worry will be timing of the "main
line" of thunderstorms. Current thinking is that the line will be
at the Tennessee River around 5pm-7pm, I-65 around 9pm-11pm, and
the Plateau 2am-4am.

As you can see above, this line will be slow moving, so there is
the potential for heavy rainfall with this system as ample
moisture will be available. Widespread 1-2 inches is expected with
locally higher amounts definitely possible. The good news is that
the severe weather threat will be winding down as the line
weakens as it moves east, so think the main threat for any severe
weather development will be west of a line from Clarksville to
Centerville to Pulaski. The main threat will be damaging winds.

Sunday will not be nearly as hot as today as additional cloud
cover will help things some. However, gusty southerly winds will
be an issue as gusts up to 35mph will definitely be possible.
Not confident enough to issue a Wind Advisory as things look
borderline at best.

Monday...rain finally exits Middle Tennessee by mid day as much
more seasonable (and reasonable) air filters into the area. Highs
will likely struggle to reach the 70 degree mark by Monday
afternoon under clearing skies. Lucky for us, the taste of early
spring won`t stop with Monday as medium range models are depicting
a cut off upper low traversing around the Southeast U.S. for much
of next week leaving Middle Tennessee under cool north/northwest
flow. The chance for rain will remain in the forecast for
practically every day into next weekend. What`s even better? The
cool temperatures all next week might make you forget how brutal
and unforgiving this hot and humid weekend has been...unless you
participated in the Nashville marathon today...then you likely
won`t forget...but a HUGE congrats as this was easily the hottest
one on record!

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions at all three sites will persist through the TAF
period. Strong southerly winds gusting to near 30kts today are
expected to gust to near 35kts tomorrow after 14Z. Current obs
indicate steady winds of 10-15kts which is surprising since it`s
pretty windy everywhere else, especially south where a few obs
along the Tennessee River in Northern Alabama show gusts of
25-30kts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  86  56  71  50 /  10  40 100   0   0
Clarksville    71  83  54  67  49 /  10  60 100   0   0
Crossville     67  82  57  68  47 /  10  10 100  40   0
Columbia       70  85  55  71  49 /  10  60 100   0   0
Lawrenceburg   70  85  56  71  49 /  10  40 100   0   0
Waverly        71  82  54  68  49 /  10  80 100   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Hurley
AVIATION........05


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