Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 182112
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
312 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON EVENTHOUGH
EARLIER PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA. COLD SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT SO WE WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT. MODELS BACK OFF A BIT FROM THE CLOUD
COVER BY FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE...BUT THEN WE PICK UP SOME
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
WEATHER SYSTEM.

THAT NEXT SYSTEM WILL TAKE THE FORM OF A GULF LOW WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA FRI NT.
TN IS DISPLACED A GOOD DISTANCE FROM THE LOW AND THE SYSTEM IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE TO BEGIN WITH. THEREFORE...WITH THE NAM LEANING
TOWARD THE DRY SIDE...I WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY BELOW THE LIKELY
CAT. AS FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP POTENTIAL...850MB WET BULB ZERO TEMPS
ARE AT OR ABOVE 0 EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW NORTH FOR LATE FRIDAY NT EARLY SAT MORNING.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A CONCERN AT THIS POINT. THE SYSTEM
WILL EXIT ON OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED. FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
THE 2-5 PDS.

IN THE EXT FCST...GENERALLY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED. THE
GULF WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL EAST
OF TN. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
TUESDAY AND PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEHIND THE
FROPA...UPPER TROUGHING LOOKS SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE WITH APPRECIABLE
AMPLITUDE NOTED. THE SHARP THERMAL TROUGHING WILL ENTICE A GOOD DEAL
OF CURVATURE AND SHEAR ON THE PERIPHERIES OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO COLDER TEMPS WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE
TUESDAY NT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS WELL NORTH OF TN.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SOLUTIONS LEAN TOWARD
NOTICEABLY COLDER CONDITIONS WITHIN THE GRAPHICAL PARAMETERS. WILL
THEREFORE UNDERCUT THE TUES NT AND WED TEMPS IN PARTICULAR.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      28  45  32  47 /  05  10  40  30
CLARKSVILLE    25  42  29  45 /  05  10  40  30
CROSSVILLE     27  44  34  46 /  05  10  40  40
COLUMBIA       30  46  33  48 /  05  10  50  30
LAWRENCEBURG   31  45  33  49 /  05  20  60  30
WAVERLY        27  43  29  46 /  05  10  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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