Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 280827
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
327 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...WITH CONSIDERABLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED
ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z MODELS INDICATE FRONT WILL ENTER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE BY 15Z ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ADDED TO THE MIX FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
LATEST QPF FROM WPC INDICATES AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
THE MID STATE FOR THIS EVENT...WHICH IS ALSO CLOSELY IN LINE WITH
00Z GFS/ECMWF QPF. WITH OCTOBER 2014 ALREADY THE SECOND WETTEST
OCTOBER ON RECORD AT NASHVILLE...WE WILL MAKE A RUN FOR NUMBER
ONE AS ONLY AN ADDITIONAL 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IS NEEDED TO TIE
THE WETTEST OCTOBER EVER...WHICH WAS IN 1919 WITH 8.35 INCHES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ANEMIC SHEAR/CAPE
PROFILES...SO NO STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTIER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

ONCE PRECIP EXITS WEDNESDAY MORNING...CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. 00Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH ECMWF IN
PARTICULAR DEPICTING AN INTENSE 115KT H5 JET STREAK SWEEPING
THROUGH THE MID STATE. ALTHOUGH NO POPS ARE CURRENTLY
INCLUDED...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY DUE TO STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING
LOWS IN THE 30S FOR ALL AREAS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS AND
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 50S ON SATURDAY. THE FIRST FREEZE OF
THE SEASON CONTINUES TO APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN EARNEST BY MONDAY...WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ARRIVING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      78  50  66  41 /  80  80  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    74  46  64  37 /  80  60  05   0
CROSSVILLE     74  51  63  38 /  20  80  20   0
COLUMBIA       78  52  66  41 /  60  80  20   0
LAWRENCEBURG   77  52  66  40 /  50  80  20   0
WAVERLY        75  48  66  39 /  80  70  05   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER





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