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000
FXUS64 KOHX 251117
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
617 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Pretty quiet at forecast time in Middle TN.  Looking around the
region, the only thing of note right now is a batch of light rain
that has just crossed the Mississippi River and is spreading along
the MS/TN state line.  This could be part of a mid-level shortwave
attached to the larger pattern over the NE CONUS that is tapping
into what little moisture we still have lingering around.  GOES-16
water vapor imagery isn`t showing much in the way of a disturbance,
so I don`t expect these showers to amount to much.  The HRRR does
show some activity in this area, but has it petering out around 12Z
after reaching our southern counties.  Will add in a slight chance
prior to 12Z with a pre-first period in the zones.

Shy of that feature, the only thing around Middle TN this morning is
some high clouds and even those should thin out as we go through the
day.  More dry air will filter into the state and temperatures the
next couple of days are going to be magnificent. Low 80s -- a
solid 6 ot 8 degrees below normal -- for highs. The only wrench is
the forecast through Tuesday is a shortwave that could bring us
some showers early Tuesday morning. The NAM is really aggressive
with QPF but the GFS and the Euro have the energy with this wave
weakening with time and we could be lucky to get a tenth of an
inch out of it. Will maintain just a chance PoP for now, but any
rain with it should be gone by midday Tuesday.

High pressure will follow Tuesday morning`s shower activity, but it
will be very short lived.  In fact, that surface ridge gets east of
us quickly and puts right back into a southerly return flow.
Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be right back to normal
with the RH values climbing.

Models are in pretty decent agreement about rain chances returning
Friday afternoon as some diurnal activity gets a chance to rear its
head again.  This would be much closer to a summertime-like setup,
however, the trend looks like a rather disturbed pattern for next
weekend.  Will carry a chance PoP for the whole weekend for now, but
this will likely need to be increased with future forecast packages.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...High pressure is building into Middle Tennessee
from the northwest, with mainly high clouds streaming across the
mid state this morning. Dry air mass will remain in place for
several days, so we can expect VFR wx the next 24 hrs.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........08