Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 292024
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
324 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH REGION
WITH BETTER COVERAGE LYING JUST TO THE NORTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THIS AREA LIES CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...BUT WITH THE
CURRENT INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK
COVERAGE MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BY SPC... BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WHEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS.

THIS SYSTEM APPEARS IT WILL BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT DECENT MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCREASING PW VALUES TO NEAR 2 INCHES...
AND WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW AND A SETUP CONDUCIVE TO
HEAVY RAIN...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. IN FACT...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE WEEK COULD
EXCEED 4 INCHES FOR SOME AREAS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED SHOWS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-STATE...THOUGH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
A BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR FIREWORKS FESTIVITIES AS CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  87  68  82 /  30  40  20  70
CLARKSVILLE    67  86  68  81 /  30  40  20  70
CROSSVILLE     65  80  64  78 /  30  60  30  60
COLUMBIA       68  87  67  83 /  30  40  20  60
LAWRENCEBURG   68  86  68  84 /  30  40  20  60
WAVERLY        68  86  69  82 /  30  40  20  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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