Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 291726 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1126 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ADJUST SKY CONDITIONS...EMPHASIZE GUSTS TO
30 MPH...AND TWEAK HRLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...AT MID MORNING...SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM THE PLATEAU BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS HAD ENDED AND SKIES
HAD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WILL
SPREAD TO THE PLATEAU AND WILL LAST ACROSS THE MID STATE INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL START TO RETURN AS A COLD FRONT
REACHES OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY AFTERNOON...AND CROSSES ALL
OF THE MID STATE BY EVENING. WE WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE GUSTING OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES
FROM THE SW...HELPING WARM TEMPS INTO THE 50S. A WIND SHIFT TO NW
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH...AND
TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S AS THE FRONT PASSES.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS WORKING ITS
WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING, WITH THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT STILL SITUATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVERS. LOOK FOR
FROPA LATER TODAY, WITH BRISK WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW, AND VFR
CIGS PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT AT BNA & CKV, DROPPING TO MVFR
AT CSV BY AFTERNOON.

ROSE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH ON ACROSS OTHER
SECTIONS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. BY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE WEST AND END IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. WE`RE ALREADY STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH READINGS
IN THE 40S!

PRECIP MIGHT END AS A SPIT OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT, BUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST.

IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WE SEE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR QUITE A LITTLE WHILE, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CONSISTENTLY CHILLY WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY BETWEEN 40
AND 45 DEGREES, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S
ON SATURDAY.

RAIN BECOMES LIKELY IN THE MID STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT SWINGS EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW WILL BE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-24, WITH PERHAPS AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND (IN SIMILAR FASHION TO OUR LAST
SNOWFALL EVENT).

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, MUCH COLDER AIR ROLLS IN ON GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ON MONDAY, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE
20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY MORNING LOWS, WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NUDGING THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND
BAJA FOR WEEKS ON END WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND EJECT EASTWARD BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CREATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH THEN TRACKS TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A NOR`EASTER. A
WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
TURN ANY PRECIP IN OUR FA TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK, SO THE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER
IN THE MID STATE LOOK SOMEWHAT SLIM. HOWEVER, THAT SYSTEM CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS, AS DO ALL GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL SYSTEM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,  AND BY
THURSDAY HIGHS IN OUR AREA WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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