Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 270459
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1159 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX THIS TAF PD. WEAK NW FLOW WILL
RESULT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ISOL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
PLATEAU BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. OTW...PATCHY FOG AGAIN EXPECTED
TOWARD 12Z FOR ALL THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION FROM EARLY TODAY ALMOST DIED OFF AS DIURNAL AFFECTS
KICK IN...AND LITTLE IF ANY REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE MID-STATE WILL HOWEVER REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AS
UPPER HIGHS HOLD IN THE PLAINS. THIS MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR NORTHWEST
MIDDLE TN EARLY MONDAY AS SHORT RANGE MODELS HINTING AT DEVELOPING
COMPLEX UPSTREAM RIDING DOWN JUST AFTER 12Z. SEEMINGLY THIS
WARRANTS SMALL MORNING POPS WHICH HAVE BEEN ADDED. PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE...ALSO ADDED. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION 00Z UPDATE...
UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX THIS TAF PD. WEAK NW FLOW WILL
RESULT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. OTW...PATCHY FOG AGAIN EXPECTED TOWARD 12Z FOR ALL
THE TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LITTLE MCS THAT COULD STILL HANGING
ON AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST MID TN. ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND EXPECT MCS TO FALL APART PRIOR TO
OR NEAR THE I-40 WEST/I-65 NORTH CORRIDORS. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO
NOTED IN FAR EASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE GONE BY 00Z SO WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS FOR TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TX/OK...WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER OUR FORECAST RISING TO AROUND 593-594DM BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL ALLOW RISING TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
HAVE KEPT TEMPS/DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE CONSISTENTLY
TOO WARM MEX MOS AND CLOSER TO THE SUPERBLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE
WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. IN ADDITION...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES WHICH WILL
BE LESS INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE. BY THURSDAY...MODELS DEPICT
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING WESTWARD AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FORCE A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OF THE WEEK ANTICIPATED THAT DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT DID NOT GO
NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF RAW NUMBERS WHICH SHOW
DEWPOINTS FALLING WAY DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK THIS WAY NEXT WEEK...SO FOR NOW
LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST FULL
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      73  94  75  94 /  10  10  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  10  20  10  20
CROSSVILLE     69  87  69  88 /  10  30  20  30
COLUMBIA       72  94  74  93 /  10  10   0  20
LAWRENCEBURG   72  93  73  94 /  10  10  10  20
WAVERLY        73  93  74  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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