155
FXUS64 KOHX 092347
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
647 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

- Rain and storm chances will become more widespread this
  afternoon. The overall severe threat this week and weekend
  remains low.

- Localized flash flooding, frequent lightning, and gusty winds
  will be possible with any storms this week.

- Expect warm and humid conditions for the foreseeable future, but
  excessive heat won`t be a factor anytime soon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A weak surface boundary and upper tough are situated to the
northwest of Middle Tennessee this morning. Already, the air mass
across the mid state is plenty unstable, with Precipitable Water
values also above the 90th percentile climatologically. So the
interaction between these mesoscale features and the moist and
unstable environment will produce medium to high rain and storm
chances this afternoon and early evening. With the upper trough
coming through overnight, our rain and storm chances will drop off
some tomorrow, but we`ll still see some convective activity
tomorrow, most notably along the Cumberland Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Mainly daytime rain and storms are going to be a fixture in the
forecast for the foreseeable future, as the current air mass
stays with us. PoPs will increase again somewhat this weekend and
early next week as a series of weak shortwaves comes through
Middle Tennessee. Temperatures will start to build back up as we
head into the weekend and early next week, but excessive heat
won`t be a factor anytime soon. At this time, the risk of any
hazardous weather throughout the next 7 days is very low. The
worst we anticipate is the occasional strong thunderstorm and
heat indices climbing back into the low 100s beginning on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Storms are ongoing this evening, currently pushing east. SRB and
CSV will be impacted by thunderstorms over the next hour. Models
are coming in hot with widespread MVFR/IFR fog development
overnight tonight. The 12Z HREF is giving a 40% chance of LIFR fog
mainly at CKV, CSV, and SRB. Adjustments may be made in the next
taf issuance if this trend continues. Moving into the late
morning/early afternoon, models are focusing TSRA development
across the east. PROB30 groups have been included in the SRB and
CSV taf. For our western terminals, there is lower confidence in
TSRA development, less than a 20% chance, so thunder has been left
out of the taf.

Winds will remain light and variable through the period with a
general southwesterly direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  91  72  93 /  20  30  10  30
Clarksville    71  89  71  91 /  10  20  10  20
Crossville     66  83  65  86 /  40  70  20  40
Columbia       70  88  70  91 /  30  30  10  40
Cookeville     68  85  67  88 /  40  50  10  40
Jamestown      67  83  66  86 /  40  60  10  40
Lawrenceburg   70  88  69  90 /  40  40  10  40
Murfreesboro   70  89  70  92 /  40  40  10  40
Waverly        70  88  70  91 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Baggett