Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 241549
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
949 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED TO NEAR A
LEWISBURG TO JUST EAST OF LAFAYETTE LINE. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT HAVE DISSIPATED...BUT STILL COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH NOON MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE
CWA BY THEN. HIGHS FOR TODAY HAVE BEEN OR WILL BE SOON
REACHED...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
40S THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY
MADE MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER OUR
REGION BETWEEN A 977MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER TEXAS...CREATING THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING. SOME PEAK GUSTS NOTED ON AWOS/ASOS SITES SO
FAR HAVE BEEN 47 MPH AT SHELBYVILLE...44 MPH AT CLARKSVILLE...AND
40 MPH AT NASHVILLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...AND WIND
ADVISORY COULD BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLY DEPENDENT ON
OBSERVATIONS.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG SSW WINDS AT THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT, WILL
INCLUDE LLWS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE TAF FOR BNA AND
CKV. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS WELL, AND
WILL HANDLE THAT WITH VCSH REMARKS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS THROUGH HERE TODAY HAVE CAUGHT THE ATTENTION OF FOLKS TO OUR
NW.  BACK HOME...WE HAVE BEEN DRY-SLOTTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR MANY ACROSS THE MID-STATE TO SEE SOME STARS
TONIGHT.  AS THE COLD FRONT CREEPS CLOSER TO THE STATE AND WE REMAIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LARGE, DYNAMIC SYSTEM...WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING.  TEMPERATURE READINGS HAVE RISEN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  ON TOP OF ALL OF
THAT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY SW WINDS.
WHILE WE WON`T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH MIDDLE TN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW.  SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL START TO RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z THIS
EVENING.

THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT HAS ENCOMPASSED JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
CONUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...IT MIGHT JUST HAVE
ONE OR TWO OF SURPRISES IN STORE FOR SOME OF US. THE BIGGEST ONE
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THIS TROUGH OUT OF CANADA. WHILE THIS DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
MUCH OF A PRECIP MAKER...IT WILL CONTAIN SOME MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR...WHICH COULD SPELL SOME SNOW FOR OUR CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
CONSTITUENCY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AS EARLY AS 03Z THURSDAY...PLENTY DEEP FOR CRYSTAL
FORMATION ALOFT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THE WHITE STUFF ON THE PLATEAU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIES OUT BY 12Z
THURSDAY MORNING.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO
FLATTEN OUT CONSIDERABLY BY WEEK`S END...PUTTING US INTO A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.  WITH BOTH EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOWING A
SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO OUR EAST...WHICH WILL PUT US INTO A MODEST
RETURN FLOW...WE SHOULD WARM UP BY SATURDAY AGAIN.  OF COURSE...A
WARMUP LIKE THIS DOESN`T COME WITHOUT SOME EVENTUAL PRECIP...AND
THIS MAY COME IN THE FORM OF A WEAK FRONT DROPPING IN ON US FROM THE
NORTH.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS FRONT TO MAINTAIN LIQUID PRECIP...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORM SYSTEM TO CONTINUE PULLING EAST OVERNIGHT. WE WILL STILL
SEE A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTW...PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY AT TIMES.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY.

AS FOR CIGS...LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST BUT CIGS WILL
LIFT SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>033-
056>064-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$

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