Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 231907
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
207 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE EAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIPS TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS, EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO ACCELERATE, AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POP`S WILL FURTHER INCREASE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MID STATE.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN SITUATED
TO OUR WEST UNTIL A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND FINALLY BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, WITH DWINDLING POP`S THEREAFTER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE
AGAIN SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY DURING
PEAK-HEATING HOURS, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC HAS US ONLY UNDER GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERITY AT THIS POINT.
ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY DRAMATIC FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE, WITH
SUMMER-LIKE READINGS IN STORE AS WE REACH THE END OF MAY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  86  68  78 /  10  10  30  40
CLARKSVILLE    60  83  68  78 /  10  20  40  60
CROSSVILLE     55  78  63  75 /   0  10  10  30
COLUMBIA       63  86  69  78 /  10  20  30  40
LAWRENCEBURG   63  84  68  79 /  05  20  40  40
WAVERLY        63  84  69  78 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE



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