Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 222040
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
240 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...

After the band of scattered-to-numerous showers moved across our
area late last night and early today, most locations were able to
enjoy a respite from the rain this afternoon. However, another
band of showers and isolated thunderstorms is now lurking just to
our south, and area radars showed it slowly pin-wheeling up this
way.

Due to thinning in the clouds and showers, temperatures recovered
quite nicely, and by 2 pm were mainly in the lower and middle 60s.

Believe showers will become numerous over southern and eastern
parts of the Mid-State tonight, as upper low and attendant
surface low track eastward through 06z, then lift lift northward
toward the Central Appalachians between 06z and 12z. Can`t rule
out some isolated thunderstorms over southern and eastern sections
this evening, but most precip should be in the form of just plain
ol` showers. A lesser chance for measurable rain is expected over
northwestern and north-central areas, where mainly just scattered
showers are expected.

As upper low pulls east tonight and Monday, look for north winds
to increase and become gusty. MOS shows sustained winds of 15 to
20 mph by 12z, Monday at BNA, with gusts likely to be close to 30
mph. That wind promises to make our highs around 50 tomorrow seem
a lot chillier than they might otherwise feel.

Rain will diminish from the west on Monday and Monday night,
although skies will likely remain mostly cloudy over at least the
eastern half of the Mid-State through Monday night.

Dry weather returns for Tuesday and Tuesday night. However, a weak
front brings at least a small chance for showers Wednesday and
Wednesday evening (especially southern and eastern sections). You
might want to enjoy those highs in the lower and middle 60s on
Wednesday, because a general cool-down still looks to be in play
for the last half of the week and next weekend.

.LONG TERM...

As broad upper trough develops over the eastern United States late
next week, high temperatures in our neck of the woods will drop to
the upper 30s to middle 40s. Lows will drop back into the 20s,
which is certainly more normal for this time of year--especially
compared to the 40s and 50s we`ve had over recent nights.

A canopy of cold air stratocumulus will likely sag southward into
the Mid-State Wednesday night and Thursday and, perhaps, bring a
few showers to the Cumberland Plateau. Clouds will linger into
Thursday night, but should diminish and allow for more sunshine
on Friday. Right now, next weekend is looking dry, but cool.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Current MVFR to VFR conditions will eventually erode to IFR to
MVFR conditions later this evening as potent low pressure center
moves across the deep south. Models show rain likely pushing into
CSV later this afternoon while showers develop later in the
evening for BNA. CKV may be too far north of the low to see much
shower activity. Winds will increase during the evening hours and
back to the NNW. Overnight gust will pick up to the 20-25 kt range
and possibly closer to 30 kts. Model soundings show low level
moisture trapped under a stout inversion for the remainder of the
taf period leading to continuing IFR to MVFR ceilings.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      47  52  36  59  49 /  60  20   0   0  10
Clarksville    46  49  34  58  48 /  40  10   0   0  10
Crossville     47  50  36  52  44 / 100  70  30   0  10
Columbia       47  51  36  58  48 /  80  20   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   48  51  37  58  48 /  90  30   0   0  10
Waverly        45  49  35  58  49 /  50  10   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........Reagan


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