115
FXUS64 KOHX 130525
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1225 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 814 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Pretty quiet at update time, however clouds have been on the
increase over the last several hours. This is ahead of our next
weather maker and start of a relatively active weather period this
week. Latest hi-res guidance showing some light rain moving in
from the southwest after midnight and spreading across the mid-
state through the morning hours. Then, with most of the afternoon
remaining dry, a couple of showers and maybe even a rumble thunder
tomorrow evening, but no severe weather is expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday Night)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

High pressure is in place over the region and that is going to
bring great weather for this Mother`s Day. Highs this afternoon
are on track for most of the area to make it to around 80 but it
will stay a bit cooler over the Plateau. High clouds will start to
increase later this afternoon ahead of out next system that will
move in here Monday/Tuesday. Dry weather will continue into the
overnight but clouds will continue to increase with lows in the
50s.

On Monday an upper level trough will be tracking east over the
Plains and this will push a warm front into our area Monday
morning into the afternoon. We can expect periods of rain along
and ahead of this front. CAPE before Monday evening will be very
limited and we shouldn`t see any thunderstorms before that. The
rain chances and cloud cover will keep things a little bit cooler
with highs in the mid 70s. Winds ahead of the trough will be
somewhat breezy with gusts 20-25 mph in the afternoon and
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The warm front will lift north through TN Monday evening into the
overnight and we will start to see things become more humid with
dew points pushing back into the mid 60s to around 70 by mid-
morning Tuesday. The upper level trough and cold front will then
track over TN on Tuesday. This will keep showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast. We do see 0-6 km shear push to above 30 knots
ahead of the front in the afternoon but soundings show poor lapse
rates and that will really limit our chances of seeing stronger
storms. The chances still look low but if we were to see a
stronger storm it would likely be in our southeast where CAPE will
be a little higher. PWATs behind the warm front will increase
above 1.20" and that will bring a threat of heavy rain with any
convection that we see. Rain totals through Tuesday evening will
likely range from 0.70-1.50".

Dry conditions will start to set in behind the cold front but the
trough will linger over us on Wednesday with cooler air building
in aloft. This will bring scattered showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms throughout Wednesday with the afternoon seeing the
best chances. Short wave ridging and dry weather builds in
Wednesday evening into Thursday. As we head into the end of the
week into the weekend it will be somewhat unsettled as multiple
short waves push over the area. This will bring period of showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions currently. Scattered -SHRA will begin to move into
the area around to after 12Z. Confidence in coverage and intensity
is low, so have covered with mainly VCSH through the morning. Cigs
will begin to fall areawide around to after 19Z, with additional
showers moving through the area. Winds will remain generally from
the S/SE, around 10 knots and occasional gusts to 20 kts after
15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  64  78  63 /  60  60  70  70
Clarksville    72  63  76  60 /  60  70  70  60
Crossville     68  58  71  58 /  60  60  90  90
Columbia       72  63  79  61 /  70  60  60  50
Cookeville     72  61  74  60 /  60  50  80  90
Jamestown      72  58  74  58 /  60  50  90  90
Lawrenceburg   71  64  78  61 /  70  60  60  60
Murfreesboro   72  63  79  61 /  60  60  70  70
Waverly        72  63  76  60 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Adcock