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000
FXUS64 KOHX 261135
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
635 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Our heat wave just doesn`t seem to want to let go of us, and once
these things start linger more than a week they just tend to
self-propagate. Tonight`s temperatures and dew points are running
very similar to last night`s, and overall weather regime just
doesn`t change much today, or even tomorrow, for that matter.
Thus, will continue to trend above MAV MOS numbers for high
temperatures today and again on Thursday. We could, perhaps, get
some broken cloud cover into some northern areas by late tomorrow.
However, overall, we should just see mainly another partly cloudy
day, with old sol beating down on us as feverishly as in previous
days.

With temperatures running so hot today and tomorrow, will re-
introduce the mention of maximum afternoon heat indices between
100 and 105 degrees in areas west of the Cumberland Plateau.

Still expect a cold front to drop down on us from the north
Thursday night and Friday, bringing a swath of showers and
thunderstorms across the region. Still looks like some storms
could become strong to severe, with damaging winds and torrential
downpours. Daytime heating will likely enhance convective
potential on Friday, especially over southern and eastern areas,
where the front will be slowest to arrive. SPC has the Mid-State
blanketed in a marginal-to-slight risk for severe storms in their
Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks.

Models are consistent with drying things out pretty quickly over
the weekend, as a sprawling area of high pressure builds in from
the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Afternoon high
temperatures Friday through Monday will be mainly in the 80s.
Saturday and Sunday are expected to be dry. So, it looks like
mother nature will give us a nice little break from all this
oppressive heat, and allow us to enjoy a period of more
comfortable temperatures. In fact, the Nashville airport should
finally see a minimum temperature below 70 degrees by Saturday
morning (which hasn`t occurred since July 19th, Ugh!) By Sunday
morning, readings in the lower and middle 60s will be common
across the Mid-State.

As we head through the first and middle part of next week,
temperatures will start to creep back up, with precipitation
mainly limited to isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Still looks like Nashville will see readings of 90 to 91 degrees
by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Weak surface pattern across Middle Tennessee
today will translate to generally benign weather and light wind.
There is a small chance of convection this afternoon, but leaving
storms out of the TAF`s due to the low probability. Once again,
fog was scant this morning, so will leave out of the TAF`s for
tonight.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........08