Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

939
FXUS64 KOHX 141710 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1110 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING AND AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION IS FINALLY SPREADING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
MORNING AS SNOW IS BEING REPORTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 EXPECTED TO SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOWS.

LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...IT`S COME DOWN TO A BATTLE
OVER HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPERATURE WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND. STILL THINK THE ONGOING
FORECAST IS A REALLY GOOD ONE DESPITE THE DIFFICULTY IN
PINPOINTING CHANGEOVER TIMING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING UP
OVER 32 DEGREES IN NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ALREADY THIS MORNING...JUST THINK IT`S A MATTER OF TIME FOR THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE IT`S TREK NORTHWARD. SO WITH THAT
SAID...THINK THERE MAY ONLY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR ANY WINTRY
MIX FOR THOSE DIRECTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BUT NOT ON THE
PLATEAU...WITH ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY THIS EARLY EVENING.

AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT MORE FROM THE SOUTH...WARM AIR WILL USHER
IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL TURN
THE PRECIPITATION INTO MOSTLY RAIN BY MIDNIGHT...WITH EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON THE PLATEAU WHERE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN. OVERALL...1 TO MAYBE
2 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FURTHER
NORTH/CLOSER TO THE TN/KY BORDER. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
TURNS TO RAIN...THINK TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL ALL BUT DISAPPEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KBNA AND KCKV...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WITH MOSTLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
EXPECTED AS -SN MOVES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP IN THE HEAVIEST -SN BANDS. -SN WILL
CHANGE OVER TO -RA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.

AT CSV...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z-20Z AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS. -SN WILL THEN MIX
WITH ZR AND IP DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 10Z,
WHEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO -RA.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR CLAY-
CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-JACKSON-MACON-OVERTON-PICKETT-PUTNAM-
SMITH-TROUSDALE-VAN BUREN-WHITE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CHEATHAM-
DAVIDSON-DICKSON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-STEWART-
SUMNER-WILSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........HURLEY
LONG TERM..................10/REAGAN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.