Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 131112
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
512 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

It was clear and cold across the Mid-State early this morning,
with 4 am temperatures in the middle teens to lower 20s. However,
a rapid and windy warm-up is on tap for later this morning, after
the sun comes up.

Southwest winds will become gusty today, ahead of an approaching
shortwave out of the Midwest, and a Wind Advisory has been issued
for our extreme northwestern and north-central counties, where
sustained winds of 25 mph and gusts to around 40 mph are expected
this afternoon. Winds will also be quite gusty elsewhere over the
Mid-State, with frequent afternoon gusts of 30 to 35 mph.

Highs today will quickly climb out of the 20s and through the 30s
and 40s, and top out this afternoon in the middle 40s to middle
50s.

Our weather pattern doesn`t change a lot over the next several days,
with a parade of shortwaves continuing to drop southeastward out
of the Midwest and Mississippi Valley. The one that sweeps across
our area tonight, will bring an increase in clouds, but no
precipitation. Mostly cloudy skies linger into Thursday morning,
but skies will become partly cloudy by the afternoon. It`ll be a
little cooler tomorrow, as winds return to a northerly direction
behind our passing shortwave. Highs will top out mainly between 40
and 45 degrees.

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night. However,
another shortwave moves in on Friday and pushes the clouds off to
the east. It will remain seasonably cool, with highs once again
mainly in the lower and middle 40s.

The weekend starts off mostly sunny on Saturday, with highs
in middle 40s to middle 50s. A large surface high pressure system
over the Gulf Coastal states keeps us high and dry.

The latter part of the weekend still looks wet, as an upper trough
digs across the western U.S. and puts us in a moist southwest flow
aloft. By late Saturday night, clouds will already be increasing,
with light showers likely pushing into at least our western
counties by sunrise on Sunday. The showers rapidly overspread the
Mid-State on Sunday, with possibly some moderate to heavy
downpours.

Models differ on how rapidly the western trough moves eastward,
and a lot will depend on whether the southern part closes off.
Right now, prefer the more "open" and progressive solution of the
ECMWF. Even with the ECMWF, however, the clouds and showers stick
with us into Sunday night and early Monday.

Northwest upper flow re-establishes itself by Tuesday, with a mean
trough axis once again from Hudson Bay southward into the
Tennessee Valley. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool in our
neck of the woods, with highs Tuesday between 50 and 55 and lows
in the lower and middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...It`s a clear start to the day, with VFR
conditions and light wind...but not for long. Look for the surface
pressure gradient to tighten up dramatically during the next few
hours ahead of a dry cold front that will sweep across Middle
Tennessee during the evening. Despite VFR conditions persisting
through the TAF period, strong surface winds will affect the
terminals from late morning, through the afternoon and into the
evening. Look for significant LLWS at CSV after 00Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
Montgomery-Robertson-Stewart-Sumner.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........08


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