Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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178
FXUS64 KOHX 261009
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
509 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The broad area of showers that moved over our area Saturday
evening has moved north into Kentucky this morning. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible for the
remainder of the morning. Thunderstorm chances will increase
slightly in the afternoon...mainly east of I-65, but nothing is
expected to be severe. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid
70s for most of the area today. For areas west of I-65, you have
a decent chance at seeing a pleasant and mostly dry afternoon
today. From 7pm tonight to 7am Monday morning, we should be mostly
dry across Middle Tennessee. However, precip chances will quickly
increase Monday morning as a low pressure system approaches the
mid Mississippi Valley. Gradient winds will likely pick up Monday
morning ahead of this system, creating gusty southerly winds
around 15 to 20 knots. Thunderstorm coverage will spread from the
west throughout the afternoon and evening. The NAM is still
bullish with it`s instability, showing around 1500 j/kg of CAPE
over northern Middle Tennessee and into Kentucky Monday
afternoon/evening. The GFS seems to be on a similar, less intense
track and is showing around 700 j/kg of SBCAPE Sunday afternoon.
The NAM is hinting at the best timing for severe to be in the
evening, while the GFS brings the moisture and peak instability in
the afternoon. For this forecast, I`ve kept the best chance of
precip in from 7pm to midnight, but based on forecast soundings I
think there could be a few afternoon storms that become strong to
severe west of I-65 before 7pm. SPC has highlighted mainly the
western half of Middle TN in the Day 2 slight risk area. Areas
east of I-65 aren`t completely out of the woods and still have the
potential of seeing some strong to potentially severe storms
Monday night just ahead of the frontal passage. The main threat
will be damaging winds and hail.

Temperatures should cool a few degrees in the wake of the cold
front. Highs will go from the mid to upper 70s on Monday to upper
60s and low 70s on Tuesday. A few light showers may take their
time exiting the Plateau on Tuesday. Tuesday night through most of
Wednesday night is looking dry under the influence of weak upper
ridging. The next upper low moves off the Rockies Wednesday
afternoon and spreads showers and thunderstorms across the Plains
as it moves east. Precip is expected to enter our area Thursday
morning. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger into
Friday as the upper low heads northeast. Models aren`t in very
good agreement next weekend, but dry weather and seasonable
temperatures should be around for the first half of the weekend at
least.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Exiting widespread precipitation leaving MVFR cigs around the
mid-state...and these cigs expected to remain through much of the
morning hours. Isolated showers and storms are expected to linger
throughout the day but improving conditions are expected in the
afternoon. Patchy fog may develop after 06z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......11
AVIATION........07



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