Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 250742
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
242 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Another warm...muggy night across the area out ahead of a surface
front to our northwest draped from lower Lake Michigan down
through central Missouri then across Kansas. Squall has fired
along and just ahead of the boundary. Models break scattered
convection south of the line this morning with the line extending
from just south of Cincinnati to just south of Paducah Kentucky
at 00z today. Models seem to be having a hard time keeping the
squall line intact as it moves this way especially the farther
south it gets. Temps today in the lower to mid 90`s west of the
plateau with heat indicies 100 to 103 west of the plateau with
scattered thunderstorms. Scattered thunderstorms around tonight
but fewer in number. I think surface frontal boundary will likely
get down along the Ohio River by 12z Tuesday then become
stationary. Upper ridge that has been over our area for the last
several days has finally retrograded allowing for a trough to
develop over the eastern U.S. I can see a series of disturbances
in the models that will be working subtly through the trough that
should provide enough lift especially when conbined with
afternoon heating along with with the proximity of the frontal
boundary to keep an ongoing chance for thunderstorms over the next
several days. Precipitable water will be just under 2 standard
deviations above normal for much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...Radar scope is now PPINE and operating in clear air
mode with earlier convection having entirely dissipated. Radiation
fog is already developing at CSV, so will leave in reduced VSBY
there overnight. Otherwise, TAF`s are VFR. Scattered afternoon
convection is expected on Monday and will cover this for now using
"VCTS" and "CB" remarks.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  75  93  75  92 /  40  40  50  30  50
Clarksville    91  74  90  73  89 /  40  40  50  30  50
Crossville     88  70  87  70  86 /  50  40  60  40  60
Columbia       94  74  93  73  92 /  40  40  40  40  40
Lawrenceburg   94  74  93  73  91 /  40  40  40  30  40
Waverly        92  74  92  74  91 /  40  40  40  30  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........07


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