Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 301428 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
928 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
A TRANQUIL MORNING IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. SOME
ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG WERE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELITTE IMAGERY
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND RIVER...BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
MID-MORNING AS HEATING/MIXING BEGINS. GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
RAPIDLY WARM THIS MORNING. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S OVER A
BULK OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS
ALONG THE PLATEAU. HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME ISOLATED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
OTHERWISE WITH A CLEAR DAY EXPECTED VERY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

UPDATE...

FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...

PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...CALM WIND...
AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR/IFR FOG ONCE AGAIN 06-12Z/WED TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY
CSV/CKV. WINDS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW 6KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 4F BUT DRY AIR RESIDES JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION WILL THEREFORE BE TOUGH TO COME BY. FOG
FORMATION LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE PLATEAU
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TOVER VALUES AT CSV.

OTW...UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST FROM EASTERN TX
NORTHWARD THROUGH MN. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
WILL BE ORIENTED ACROSS THE MID STATE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...850 MB TEMPS WILL APPROACH 16C WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TODAY AND THEN THE UPPER
80S ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A GOOD 10-12F ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
US AND A STRONG COLD FRONT GAINS STRENGTH TO OUR WEST. WILL INCLUDE
LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY.

IN THE EXT FCST...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE A WEATHER
PLAYER FOR THU NT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE IT
MIGHT OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO EXIST
SO AS TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THU NT. EURO MATCHES UP
QUITE WELL WITH THE GFS SOLUTION IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND TIMING.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE RATHER HIGH POPS FOR THU NT.

THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
REPLACING AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER. OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN IN THE
40S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S. A WARMUP WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROUGHING QUICKLY PULLS OUT AND HIGHER HEIGHTS RETURN. WE SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS BACK UP CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED.

OTHER THAN THE GOOD SHOT OF RAINFALL FOR THU NT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...THE FCST LOOKS DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      86  61  88  63 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    86  57  86  61 /   0   0   0  10
CROSSVILLE     81  54  81  58 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       86  60  88  64 /   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   86  58  88  63 /   0   0   0  10
WAVERLY        86  58  87  62 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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