Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 262056
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
256 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WHILE WE THANKFULLY WON`T BE GETTING THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THOSE IN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE GETTING...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE MIDDLE TN.  THIS WILL BE
CAUSED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LARGER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE MID-
STATE...INCLUDING THE METRO AREA...BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE PLATEAU AFTER 6 PM THIS
EVENING. MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED...BUT WE MAY VERY WELL
SQUEEZE OUT ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW BEFORE 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING. ONE
HALF INCH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WILL NOT LIKELY CAUSE TOO MANY
ISSUES...BUT SOME LESS-TRAVELED ROADWAYS...ALONG WITH BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...MIGHT BECOME SLICK TONIGHT ON THE PLATEAU AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES. KEEP THIS IN MIND IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUT TONIGHT
AND DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

THURSDAY WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND WITH THE
BULK OF THE SYSTEM REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...RAIN TOTALS WILL BE
VERY LIMITED.  LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE.  AS
WE HAVE SEEN WITH MANY OF THESE WINTER SYSTEMS...COLD AIR USUALLY
WRAPS IN BEHIND THEM AND GIVES US A SMALL CHANCE OF THE WHITE
STUFF.  FORTUNATELY WITH THIS ONE...IT LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN...AND IT
SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE BY FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING.  IF THERE`S ANY
GOOD NEWS WITH THIS SYSTEM IT`S THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF IT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT COOLER AND AS WE ROLL INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WE START LOOKING UPSTREAM TO OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER MAKER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
GREATLY IN QUESTION...BUT THE FOCUS IS COMING A LITTLE CLEARER
THAT BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL START MOVING INTO
MIDDLE TN. THE QUESTION IS...WHAT KIND OF PRECIPITATION WILL WE BE
GETTING?

AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DEEP, COLD AIR TO WARRANT AT LEAST A MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.  QUICKLY
THOUGH...IT SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO ALL
LIQUID SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AND THEN AS IS THE NORM...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE COLD
AIR ON THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME COLD AIR THAT WILL
WORK ITS WAY IN...BUT ATTM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT VERY
QUICKLY. WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE SATURDAY
NIGHT-SUNDAY SYSTEM.  SOME TEENS MIGHT HAPPEN ON THE PLATEAU...BUT
WE`VE SEEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALREADY THIS SEASON.  FOR NOW...THE
COLD AIR LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY MORNING NEXT WEEK...AT THE EARLIEST.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY MVFR TODAY FOR KCKV AND KBNA WITH IFR/LIFR AT KCSV. CIGS
WERE HINTING AT GETTING INTO VFR FOR KCKV AND KBNA THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THAT LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED IF IT DOES OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
FOR KBNA AND KCKV AROUND 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN INTO THE EVENING...AND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL IMPACT KCSV AFTER 00Z OR
SO AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
CIGS WILL BE IFR AT BEST WITH LIFR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AFTER
03Z AT KCSV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      32  43  27  48 /  20  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    31  41  26  47 /  20  10   0   0
CROSSVILLE     27  36  21  44 /  50  30   0   0
COLUMBIA       31  43  26  49 /  10  10   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   32  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0
WAVERLY        33  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27




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