Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 222051
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
251 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Radar imagery this afternoon shows bulk of rain has moved east of
our forecast area. However, models show redevelopment of showers
along a weak cold front that is currently crossing the Tennessee
River. Will show low pops through the evening to account for this
activity, mainly east of I-65. Otherwise, gusty south to southwest
winds up to 35 mph will continue into the early evening as an
area of low pressure moves through the Midwest.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 30s to around 40 in the
wake of the cold front, but that actually seems warm compared to
the Arctic cold earlier this month. In fact, temperatures for the
rest of the forecast period looks to remain near to above normal
for this time of the year - a welcome change from the well below
normal conditions much of this month. Wraparound cloud cover will
affect the area Tuesday into Wednesday, keeping temperatures cool
with highs only in the 40s both days. A few isolated showers
look possible in the northern Plateau counties from Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening, and as temperatures cool late in
the day cannot rule out a snow shower mixing in. Nothing
significant and certainly no accumulations are anticipated
though.

Later in the week, a return to sunny skies and much warmer
temperatures are expected as a large H5 ridge builds over the
eastern CONUS. Highs will warm well into the 50s on Thursday and
likely the 60s by Friday, with no precipitation anticipated. By
Friday night into Saturday, global models begin to diverge with
our next system with the 12Z GFS around 24 hours faster and much
weaker than the slower and stronger ECMWF. Nevertheless, appears
a decent chance of rain is in store for Middle Tennessee over the
weekend as a large H5 trough swings by, so will show high chance
to likely pops in line with neighboring offices. Does not appear
to be enough cold air in the wake of this system for any
changeover or chance for wintry precip attm - and with the next
system not anticipated until late next week, snow lovers will
likely have to wait until at least February for any more wintry
stuff.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Rain will continue to affect BNA, MQY, and CSV for the beginning
of this taf period. Rain will cut off this afternoon with a
narrow band of MVFR cigs behind it. Clearing will quickly follow
the MVFR clouds and VFR conditions will prevail through the
evening and nighttime hours for all terminals. MVFR cigs will
return for all terminals by the 11z-15z timeframe. Winds will
continue to be in the 10-15 kt range with gusts up to 25kts. Winds
will gradually veer to the WSW 12z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      39  47  29  47  28 /  20  10  10  10   0
Clarksville    37  44  27  44  27 /  10  10  10   0   0
Crossville     36  41  27  40  26 /  50  20  20  10   0
Columbia       37  46  27  47  27 /  10   0   0  10   0
Lawrenceburg   37  47  28  48  27 /  20   0   0  10   0
Waverly        37  44  28  46  28 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Shamburger
AVIATION........Reagan



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