919
FXUS64 KOUN 130401
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1101 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A southerly wind will prevail tonight, with higher wind speeds
expected across parts of western and northern Oklahoma. The wind
may decrease enough across parts of western north Texas for patchy
fog to form by sunrise Thursday. At this time, it appears any fog
that forms will be shallow and short lived.

Hotter temperatures are expected by Thursday afternoon, as a mid
and upper ridge builds closer to the southern Plains. Triple digit
air temperatures are expected across parts of northern and
western Oklahoma. Although air temperatures will be less
elsewhere, more humid air will increase the apparent temperature,
particularly rain-soaked areas of western north Texas. Where the
triple digit heat is expected, a southerly wind and fairly low
humidity should provide some relief. At this time, we will not
issue any heat headlines for parts of northern Oklahoma where heat
index values will approach 105 during the mid to late afternoon.

Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop to our north and west
as a cold front approaches northern Oklahoma. Any storms that form
should not reach northern (northwest) Oklahoma until the early
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Model guidance suggest some storms will reach northwest Oklahoma
before dissipating during the mid evening.  Some of these storms
will have the potential to produce strong to perhaps damaging winds
(greater than 60 mph).

Triple digit air temperatures are expected again on Friday with
a low level thermal ridge extending into parts of northern Oklahoma.
There are low chances for a few storms to move into northwest
Oklahoma during the evening, but better storm chances are expected
to our north.

A shortwave trough is expected to move across the southern and
central Plains on Saturday.  Thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon and move into parts of northern Oklahoma during the late
afternoon or evening.  It`s possible that storms coverage, and a
strong low level jet may allow storms to develop through the evening
hours, before dissipating overnight.

After the shortwave trough moves northeast of the area by Sunday,
the mid and upper ridge is expected to become established across the
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic region of the U.S.  Perhaps a disturbance to
our southeast and/or northwest will bring better chances of
thunderstorms by early next week, but a majority of the area
may stay dry through Monday/Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period, although
The NAM still suggests some potential for reduced visibility at
KLAW. It is still an outlier model suggesting that the potential
is relatively low and have not included it in the TAFs this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  93  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         69  97  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  94  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           69 102  69  98 /   0   0  20   0
Ponca City OK     69  97  71  96 /   0   0  10   0
Durant OK         67  92  68  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...26