734
FXUS64 KOUN 101650
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A large area of showers/storms across parts of eastern NM, the TX
panhandle and west TX extends into SW parts of the fa early this
morning. This activity is expected to continue this morning. Heavy
rain/flooding will be the main concern with this activity in the fa.
Current radar trends appear to be showing at least a couple of MCVs
have or are in the process of developing with this area of
showers/storms in eastern NM and west TX. Showers/storms will remain
possible through the day, mainly in SW parts of the fa, as the MCVs
drift SE.

The evening is currently expected to be dry across the fa with the
loss of heating. However, additional showers/storms will be possible
overnight into early Tuesday beginning in western/southwestern parts
of the fa. Models show a shortwave moving into the southern Plains
later today and tonight. Shower/storm development to the west of the
area will be possible with this activity moving into the fa along
with additional development in the fa possible, aided by the
shortwave. Heavy rain and possibly gusty winds/small hail will be a
concern.

With cloud cover, rain, and NE/E winds behind the front that moved
through yesterday, highs today are expected to be near or below
average with temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Showers/storms will remain possible during the day Tuesday into
Tuesday night as the shortwave continues to slowly move across the
southern Plains with the highest chances in western/southwestern
parts of the fa. Rain chances are currently expected to end early
Wednesday as the shortwave moves away from the fa. Heavy rain will
be the biggest concern, especially in areas that receive several
inches of rain over the last day or two. However, a few of the
storms could produce some gusty winds or small hail.

Models show ridge beginning to build into the region Wednesday from
the southwest U.S. This will lead to a mostly dry forecast for the
last half of the work week along with hotter conditions. Models show
that the ridging over the region could be somewhat short-lived with
another shortwave moving into the Plains next weekend. However,
there are some differences on the path of this system so whether the
fa will see any rain with this system will be dependent on whether
it tracks far enough south to affect the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

MVFR ceilings will persist around the Red River region into the
late afternoon. Scattered showers and isolate thunderstorms are
expected in southwestern Oklahoma and northern Texas this
afternoon, but probably west of KSPS and KLAW; however, there is a
chance Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  82  63  84  66 /   0   0  20  10
Hobart OK         83  65  84  66 /  10  30  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  79  67  82  67 /  40  20  30  20
Gage OK           84  62  86  63 /   0  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     84  60  86  65 /   0   0  10  10
Durant OK         83  65  85  64 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...09