623
FXUS64 KOUN 092318
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
618 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
to develop this afternoon across southern Oklahoma and north Texas--
near and south of the cold front. A moist and uncapped air mass
south of the boundary will result in an environment capable for the
development of thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts is the primary
hazard with any thunderstorm given the short, chaotic hodographs and
weak effective bulk shear should result in pulse-type/weakly
organized multicells. These storms should be driven by diurnal
heating, so any ongoing storms should weaken around sunset.

Thunderstorms are also expected across eastern New Mexico and the
Texas panhandle. The remnants of these thunderstorms may approach
western north Texas and adjacent parts of southwest Oklahoma late
tonight. Any remnant convection should be weakening as it
approaches from the west.

For Monday, the chance of thunderstorms appears quite limited with
the relatively highest probability across western north Texas.
Otherwise, light easterly winds in the post-frontal air mass will
result in highs in the 80s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

By Tuesday, a shortwave trough is progged to dig into the
Southern Plains. There has been a southwest shift on the track of
the shortwave trough. Therefore, the highest relative chance for
showers and thunderstorms is now across western north Texas and
adjacent parts of southwest Oklahoma. Otherwise, temperatures will
stay in the 80s deg F as the mid-level ridge will remain to the
southwest.

By Thursday, the Grand Ensemble mean of GEFS, ENS, and GEPS
members indicate a ~596 dam mid-level ridge will develop across
far west Texas/southern New Mexico. The strengthening mid-level
ridge and attendant low-level thermal ridge will result in hot and
dry conditions Thursday and Friday. By the upcoming weekend,
forecast uncertainty increases as the ridge may weaken as a
shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing the next 2 to
3 hours, especially near KCSM, KLAW, and KSPS. Additional showers
and thunderstorms may approach far western north Texas and
southwest Oklahoma later tonight. PROB30 was included for Wichita
Falls to account for this possibility. There is a chance the
showers and thunderstorms may affect KLAW and KCSM; however, the
probability is too low to include in the TAFs for now (any showers
and storms will likely be weakening as they approach these
terminals).

Stratus clouds will develop across southern Oklahoma and north
Texas tonight with MVFR to IFR ceilings (~700 to 2500 ft AGL) that
will affect KDUA, KSPS, and KLAW.

Breezy northeast winds will will weaken this evening and
gradually veer to the east through the TAF period.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  82  63  83 /  20  10  10  20
Hobart OK         64  83  65  83 /  60  20  20  40
Wichita Falls TX  67  81  67  84 /  40  30  20  40
Gage OK           57  83  61  85 /  20  10  20  30
Ponca City OK     58  84  60  85 /  10   0   0  10
Durant OK         68  83  65  84 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10