793
FXUS64 KOUN 080947
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
447 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 447 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along a
line from east central to south central Oklahoma. KFDR radar shows
a fine line extending west-southwest from the current activity and
some additional development will be possible farther southwest
this morning. Forecast soundings show a thin layer of moisture at
about 600 mb again this morning with some instability available
for parcels lifted from this layer. This moisture may hang on a
little longer this morning than yesterday, but what little
isentropic lift that is occurring now should decrease, so we do
expect a decrease in convection through the morning, but we will
include some low POPs beyond sunrise.

This afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will once again develop
on the High plains of Colorado with easterly/upslope flow expected
in Kansas and eastern Colorado north of a front that is expected
to lie across southern Kansas or possibly northern Oklahoma this
afternoon. These storms will evolve into a storm complex this
evening. Again the main signal is for this complex to move across
Kansas, but could also affect northern Oklahoma. There is some
potential for severe storms across northwest/north central
Oklahoma. The primary issue would be strong winds with this storm
complex, although some isolated hail would also be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 447 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The cold front will push south into or through the area on Sunday.
Although the models are not developing precip along the front
Sunday afternoon, this will still be an area to watch with high
instability and very little CIN, but there is little forcing
predicted along the front. But elevated instability will persist
north of the frontal boundary and many models show storms
developing north of the front Sunday afternoon. The bigger issue
with potential severe weather will be yet another complex
developing on the High Plains, this time across eastern New Mexico
with the easterly/upslope flow farther south north of the surface
front. Again this is likely to develop into a storm complex and
move east and southeast towards at least the southwestern portion
of the forecast area and where the SPC marginal risk is placed.

As we get into the work week, the models are more consistent in
pivoting the mid-level trough from southern Canada through the
Great Lakes region. A surface ridge moves into the Great Lakes
area behind this trough pushing the front and the higher low-
level moisture farther south. Shower and storm chances will
linger into Tuesday and early Wednesday with the front potentially
still nearby and afternoon High Plains storms moving toward the
area again, but the later part of the week looks drier as an upper
ridge begins to increase across the Mountain West.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Primarily VFR forecast expected with gusty south to southwest
winds. LLWS will continue through 14-15Z. Will mention VCTS at
KCSM up through KPNC first 3 to 6 hours of forecast with at least
isolated TSRA possible behind progressive outflow boundary and
with LLJ interaction. TSRA still appears possible toward and after
00Z tomorrow evening across northern Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  96  73  88  66 /  10  10  30  40
Hobart OK        101  74  93  66 /  10  10  20  60
Wichita Falls TX  99  74  96  69 /  10   0  10  30
Gage OK          101  66  82  61 /  20  40  30  60
Ponca City OK     99  70  81  61 /  20  30  40  40
Durant OK         94  72  92  70 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...11