228
FXUS64 KOUN 071915
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
215 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

High clouds (remnant from last night`s thunderstorms and this
morning`s showers) continue to gradually shift east with the upper
flow and slowly dissipate (this morning`s shower activity has kept
cirrus coverage up more than it would have been otherwise). An MCV
can be seen in satellite moving east toward Greer county with
little impact expected outside of localized cloud cover and
perhaps a few sprinkles. Breezy winds will build in from the
northwest this afternoon, then diminish this evening.

Showers and storms are expected to form off the high plains this
afternoon, then make their way as a complex south toward our
forecast area this evening. Most of the CAMs confine this activity
mostly to Kansas, however, a strong low level jet tonight could help
sustain these storms into northern Oklahoma. Instability and shear
drop off fairly quickly after sunset, so while there may be an
initial risk for marginally severe storms in the evening, storms
should quickly diminish in intensity after the sun sets.

Temperatures peak tomorrow afternoon with highs in the mid 90s to a
few degrees above 100. A few sites in northern Oklahoma may approach
heat advisory criteria.

A front will nudge into northwest Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon. This
will provide a focus for a few isolated diurnally driven
thunderstorms around peak heating. With instability marginal and
shear lacking, severe storms will be unlikely; though with inverted-
v soundings, we could see a few strong downburst gusts.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

As the 500mb high shifts southeast from central Texas, flow around
the periphery will keep us under the gun for MCSs through the
weekend. With the upper flow a bit farther south, storms will have a
better chance Saturday night (compared to Friday night) to dig south
into northern Oklahoma.

A cold front is expected to surge south Saturday night, slowing down
south of I-40. This will both set up a north-south temperature
gradient for Sunday afternoon (80s north / 90s south) and provide a
focus for additional thunderstorms along and near the front during
the day (especially with the help of diurnal heating).

Another wave is expected to move through and dig deeper Sunday
night, bringing a storm complex off the high plains from the west.
Models continue to differ in how fast to bring that shortwave
through (and thus how long precipitation chances may linger).

After this system moves through, models suggest a relative minima in
precipitation chances (though, chances do not go to zero) around
midweek. Monday is expected to be the coolest day following the cold
front, with a gradual warmup through the week after that.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR category is expected at most terminals during the period.
Areas of widely scattered precipitation/thunder continue to decay
across portions of western/northern Oklahoma early this
afternoon. Showers/storms in the vicinity of CSM/PNC cannot be
ruled out this afternoon, though probability is too low for
mention at this update.

Otherwise, an additional semi-organized round of convection is
expected to spread into portions of northern/north-central
Oklahoma this evening (after 00-02 UTC/8th). Impact is most likely
at WWR, though at least some chance will continue towards
northeastern Oklahoma early on Saturday morning. Low-level wind
shear is also expected at most sites early Saturday morning.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  97  73  89 /  10  10   0  30
Hobart OK         77 102  74  94 /   0   0  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  76  99  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           74  99  66  83 /  30  10  40  30
Ponca City OK     74  99  70  84 /  10  10  30  40
Durant OK         74  94  72  91 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...34