Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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694 FXUS64 KOUN 091956 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 256 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon across southern Oklahoma and north Texas-- near and south of the cold front. A moist and uncapped air mass south of the boundary will result in an environment capable for the development of thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts is the primary hazard with any thunderstorm given the short, chaotic hodographs and weak effective bulk shear should result in pulse-type/weakly organized multicells. These storms should be driven by diurnal heating, so any ongoing storms should weaken around sunset. Thunderstorms are also expected across eastern New Mexico and the Texas panhandle. The remnants of these thunderstorms may approach western north Texas and adjacent parts of southwest Oklahoma late tonight. Any remnant convection should be weakening as it approaches from the west. For Monday, the chance of thunderstorms appears quite limited with the relatively highest probability across western north Texas. Otherwise, light easterly winds in the post-frontal air mass will result in highs in the 80s deg F. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 By Tuesday, a shortwave trough is progged to dig into the Southern Plains. There has been a southwest shift on the track of the shortwave trough. Therefore, the highest relative chance for showers and thunderstorms is now across western north Texas and adjacent parts of southwest Oklahoma. Otherwise, temperatures will stay in the 80s deg F as the mid-level ridge will remain to the southwest. By Thursday, the Grand Ensemble mean of GEFS, ENS, and GEPS members indicate a ~596 dam mid-level ridge will develop across far west Texas/southern New Mexico. The strengthening mid-level ridge and attendant low-level thermal ridge will result in hot and dry conditions Thursday and Friday. By the upcoming weekend, forecast uncertainty increases as the ridge may weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Mahale && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 MVFR ceilings are expected most of the afternoon in northern Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are possible over southern Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening and also at KSPS into early Monday morning. Gusty northeast winds will diminish tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 62 82 63 83 / 20 10 10 20 Hobart OK 64 83 65 83 / 60 20 20 40 Wichita Falls TX 67 81 67 84 / 40 30 20 40 Gage OK 57 83 61 85 / 20 10 20 30 Ponca City OK 58 84 60 85 / 10 0 0 10 Durant OK 68 83 65 84 / 30 20 10 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...09