749
FXUS64 KOUN 091111
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
611 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers/storms will remain possible this morning as
outflow/effective front continues to move across the area. This
boundary could become a focus for additional storm development later
this afternoon/evening. Where the boundary will be at that time is a
bit uncertain and will depend on how much of a push it continues to
get from ongoing convection although current thoughts are somewhere
near or south of I-40. Instability is expected to be sufficient
later today for severe storms to be possible with damaging winds and
hail possible. Additional storms are expected to develop to the west
of the fa later today. These storms could move into parts of OK and
western north TX tonight. Some severe storms could be possible with
this activity as well.

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected north of the boundary
today with highs in the upper 70s/80s. Highs in the 90s will be
possible south of the boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers/storms will remain possible Monday/Monday night although
where will likely be dependent on what occurs tonight with any
lingering MCV and/or outflow boundary providing a focus. Storms that
develop west of the fa may also make it far enough east to move into
parts of the fa Monday night.

Models show a shortwave moving across the southern Plains Tuesday
providing lift to the area for shower/storm development. With the
shortwave, more of the fa could be affected. Rain chances will
continue Tuesday night into Wednesday.

After Wednesday, models show ridging building into the region which
should lead to a generally dry and warmer forecast Thursday into
Friday. Current models show the ridging should be short-lived with
another shortwave approaching and moving into the central/southern
Plains next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A cold front will move south through the forecast area, bringing
breezy northerly winds and brief MVFR ceilings behind it. A few
storms could develop along the front this afternoon, but chances
of affecting any particular TAF site are fairly low.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  63  80  65 /  30  40  30  20
Hobart OK         91  64  80  65 /  30  60  50  40
Wichita Falls TX  96  68  80  68 /  20  40  40  30
Gage OK           81  58  80  61 /  20  50  30  40
Ponca City OK     79  59  83  61 /  40  20  10  10
Durant OK         92  69  82  66 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14