158
FXUS61 KRLX 071004
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
604 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier Friday into Saturday under high pressure.
Precipitation chances return early Sunday with a cold front with
pop-up activity thereafter through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 605 AM Friday...

Early morning satellite trends show river valley fog present
down in the southern coalfields and faintly up into the Kanawha
Valley. Included a mention of fog in the wx grids for the next
several hours before its anticipated erosion shortly after 8 AM.
Also tweaked temperatures and sky conditions to reflect current
observations around the area this morning.

As of 125 AM Friday...

A cold front continues to make slow eastward progress through
the forecast area into the Mid-Atlantic early this morning, with
light shower activity still noted along the West Virginia
mountains at the time of writing. Once this last batch of
precipitation wanes and departs the forecast area, dry weather
prevails today under the guise of encroaching high pressure.

Low level pressure gradient tightens overhead late this morning
into the afternoon in the wake of the cold front and ahead of
the establishing surface high. Forecast soundings suggest
northwest winds of 15 to 25 kts during the day, settling back to
lighter thresholds this evening.

Fair weather cumulus deck sprouts this afternoon under a
temperature spread of low to mid 60s along the mountains and mid
to upper 70s for the lowlands. Dew points drop into the 50s
today in the wake of the cold front, relinquishing the area of
muggy conditions for the end of the work week. Cooler
temperatures anticipated for tonight, bottoming out into the 50s
for late tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 AM Friday...

Surface flow shifts more westerly through the day Saturday in
response to a relatively weak wave emerging from the Central
Rockies. This will allow moisture to start to build back into the
region Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Largely think any measurable precipitation holds off until around
daybreak on Sunday with arrival of a cold front.  Not expecting any
threat for severe storms or heavy rainfall with this activity and
the front will quickly exit to the southeast during the day
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Thursday...

The long term period will be characterized by mean troughing over
the east coast and relatively flat ridging over the western half of
the country. Seeing some differences in model solutions regarding
the western flank of elongated low pressure along the Canadian
border and interaction with the aforementioned weak ridging.
The last couple runs of the GFS have cut this feature off and
tucked it under the ridge, eventually being picked up by a
shared energy area early next week. GEFS mean, as well as the
operational EC and Canadian seem to depict a more plausible
scenario with this energy ridging the northern stream. Net
result would be slightly higher synoptically forced
precipitation chances Monday night into Tuesday with the
operational GFS. Otherwise, expect mainly diurnally driven
isolated showers and thunderstorms for much of next week.

Temperatures will generally be on a rising trend through the week
from around 5 degrees below normal to 5 to 10 degrees above normal
by Friday. If the outlier GFS solution were to be realized the
warming trend would be significantly stunted for the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 605 AM Friday...

Generally quiet conditions triumph this morning in the wake of a
cold frontal passage. Fog development has taken shape across
parts of southern West Virginia this morning, but has yet to
creep into any TAF site by the time of writing. If fog were to
reach the airfield, its longevity will be short lived as the sun
continues to rise and daytime mixing transpires. High pressure
will slowly track in from the Tennessee Valley today, promoting
dry weather through the period. May see a fair weather cumulus
deck sprout this afternoon, but should pose little to no chance
of vertical development.

Winds will be slightly breezy to gusty across the area today in
the midst of a tightened pressure gradient. Gusts on the order
of 15-25 kts were included at all TAF sites through this
evening, diminishing in intensity after sunset into the
overnight hours.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief period of fog may attempt to develop
this morning at EKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               FRI 06/07/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MEK