489
FXUS64 KSJT 010459
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1159 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The latest severe weather/mesoanalysis analysis shows a dryline
well to our west over the Trans Pecos to a weak surface low near
Fort Stockton and a stationary front near the I-20 corridor form
the Permain Basin eastward across the Big Country. To the south of
the front across the southern 2/3 of the area, there is moderate
to strong instability in place, most unstable across the Northern
Edwards Plateau and effective shear bulk shear values of 35 to 45
knots over the southern half of the area.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly south of I-20 late this
afternoon and evening. Any storm that does develop will rapidly become
severe due to strong/locally extreme instability and good deep layer
shear. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds.
Otherwise, going with low chance Pops for tonight, mainly during the
evening. For Saturday, looks mainly dry for much of the day. However,
storms will fire to our west along the dryline during the afternoon. A
few storms will probably move into our western counties by late
afternoon with an isolated severe storm possible. Expect warm and
humid conditions with highs Saturday in the 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A familiar pattern for this time of year will set up across West
Central Texas this weekend and into early next week, with weak
ridging and nearly zonal flow aloft with a warmer and unstable
airmass building near the surface. However, models are showing
this setup to be slightly weaker than what we have seen this past
week so far. We`re generally expecting some diurnal showers and
isolated thunderstorms lingering into Saturday evening through
Monday, before a drier and even warmer airmass takes over and
begins to cook parts of West Central Texas under triple digit
high temperatures again. Ridging aloft will continue to strengthen
across the area, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper
90s to 106 range on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions currently present across the area. A complex of
storms is moving southeast out of Lubbock towards our area. Have
included a TS group for KABI with VCTS for KSJT as a gradual but
slow weakening trend is expected as this complex progresses. MVFR
to IFR ceilings are expected to build north during the early
morning hours, mainly impacting our southern sites. Confidence in
this stratus building all the way to KSJT is medium-low at this
time but a brief MVFR group may need to be added with the next
update. Ceilings will lift back to VFR by the late morning with
wind gusts picking up out of the southeast during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     84  67  88  69 /  50  20  10  20
San Angelo  87  69  93  69 /  30  20  10  20
Junction    91  70  94  71 /  30  20  10  20
Brownwood   81  67  87  69 /  50  20  10  20
Sweetwater  82  67  89  69 /  60  20  10  30
Ozona       90  70  91  69 /  20  10  10  30
Brady       82  68  86  69 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...50