800
FXUS62 KTAE 081843
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
243 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

High pressure will remain in control through Sunday. Expect mostly
sunny skies and dry weather. While highs will be well above normal
in the middle and upper 90s, low to mid-level northwest flow will
maintain a more continental air mass, with an unseasonably dry air
mass away from the coast (especially north of I-10). So, apparent
temps/heat index will not stray far from the actual temperatures.
Some patchy fog is possible tonight in the FL counties, thanks to
a bit more moisture from the inland penetration of the seabreeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A weakening upper-level ridge with dry mid-level
flow will be conducive to benign weather and notably hot
temperatures on Monday. A large trough initially over the Great
Lakes will dip down across the US Southeast and weaken the ridge
that has been overhead for a while. At the surface, southwesterly
flow will develop enabling moisture return across the region,
increasing dewpoints into the mid to upper 70s across our FL
counties with upper 60s to low 70s across our GA and AL counties as
a weak frontal boundary gradually sags south. Additionally, this
frontal boundary may interact with the seabreeze and provide just
enough forcing to spark storms across the area with 40-50% PoPs
across the forecast area. Maximum temperatures will reach the low
90s across SE AL, SW GA, and the FL Panhandle with upper 90s across
the FL Big Bend. These temperatures coupled with higher dewpoints
will yield heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s across our FL
counties and southernmost SE AL and SW GA counties. Low temperatures
in the overnight hours are expected to be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

On Tuesday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will
continue sliding south resulting in lower PoPs inland. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms increase closer to the coast where the
frontal boundary may slow down / temporarily stall and interact with
the seabreeze, particularly along the FL Big Bend. Additionally,
temperatures will cool down somewhat with max temperatures in the
low to mid 90s.

Our heads immediately turn to the surge of tropical moisture that is
expected midweek through possibly as long as the weekend. Typical
summertime convection is expected to continue, though the surge of
tropical moisture with the possible formation of a large cutoff low
over the Gulf of Mexico may lead toward a notably wet pattern.
Uncertainty still remains quite high with how this may evolve,
though localized flooding remains possible with this setup.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions through the period with winds less than 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Favorable boating conditions are expected to continue
through the remainder of this weekend with wave heights around 1 to
2 feet and light winds. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
increase on Monday as a frontal boundary slides south and will
remain elevated throughout the week with the arrival of tropical
moisture. Beginning Wednesday, wave heights will see an increase
with cautionary conditions possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Dry weather continues through Sunday with unseasonably low afternoon
RH values in the upper 20s to lower 30s away from the Gulf Coast, and
light winds. Moisture increases on Monday with the return of wetting
rains. Seasonably high mixing heights combine with westerly transport
winds between 10 and 15 mph for high mixing heights around the I-75
corridor of GA and Eastern FL Big Bend Sunday afternoon, and possibly
Monday afternoon across portions of Southeast AL and Southwest GA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Dry weather is expected to continue through the remainder of
this weekend with no immediate hydro concerns. Beginning Monday, a
wet pattern will begin as a frontal boundary slides south followed
by tropical moisture arriving over the Gulf. It remains quite
uncertain how much rainfall will occur with this event at this time
and is highly dependent on how long the moisture will linger over
the region. Currently, a few rivers along the Suwannee remain in
action stage and are expected to continue lowering over the next few
days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   71  97  74  96 /   0   0   0  50
Panama City   75  89  77  90 /   0   0  10  40
Dothan        68  95  73  92 /   0   0  10  50
Albany        67  96  74  93 /   0  10  10  40
Valdosta      70  96  74  95 /   0   0   0  50
Cross City    72  94  73  94 /   0  10  10  40
Apalachicola  75  89  77  89 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Worster