116
FXUS62 KTAE 091734
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
134 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

High pressure will remain in control through Sunday. Expect mostly
sunny skies and dry weather. While highs will be well above normal
in the middle and upper 90s, low to mid-level northwest flow will
maintain a more continental air mass, with an unseasonably dry air
mass away from the coast (especially north of I-10). So, apparent
temps/heat index will not stray far from the actual temperatures.
Some patchy fog is possible tonight in the FL counties, thanks to
a bit more moisture from the inland penetration of the seabreeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Forecasts have trended a little wetter for Monday afternoon as the
combination of a weakening frontal boundary, seabreeze
convergence, and the upper level support of a passing trough
combine to produced scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
forecast area on Monday. Rain chances will likely be greatest
along the front, but the low-mid level northwesterly flow will
likely aid in uplift as the seabreeze develops in the afternoon
hours. Temperatures will again be hot, but the increased
cloudiness and higher rain chances should keep us from reaching
the upper 90s across Georgia and Alabama, but whether we hit the
upper 90s in Florida will be depend how quickly and how
widespread the coverage of storms is.

For Tuesday, rain chances have come down as there is greater
confidence in drier mid-level air moving in from the west and
northwest behind the trough as well as a shortwave ridge building
in to the region. Did leave some rain chances for the the
southeast Big Bend and southern Georgia forecast areas as low-
level moisture lingers.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The extended forecast from Wednesday onwards continues to remain
very uncertain for the area, moreso than usual. Most of the
uncertainty revolves around how quickly, and even if, deep-layer
tropical moisture can work its way into the northern Gulf and into
the forecast area during the middle to latter part of the upcoming
week. Recent deterministic and ensemble guidance has trended down
for rainfall amounts across the area late in the week and possibly
into the weekend. With the active northern stream retreating
northwards the mid-upper level pattern looks to become tricky as
steering currents weaken in the sub-tropics, especially with
respect to a potential cut-off low across the Gulf of Mexico.
Past guidance has been more aggressive in cutting off this upper
level low, which allowed the tropical moisture to advect
northwards more quickly, but recent deterministic and ensemble
guidance has become less confident in this developing as quickly
so it`s possible forecast for Wed/Thurs will trend drier. However,
guidance still suggest into the end the week and upcoming weekend
that deeper tropical moisture could lift back north so rain
chances in the long-term remain above normal.

It should still be noted that forecast confidence in the extended
period remains below normal and a heavy rain threat, or just a
more favorable summertime pattern, are all still on the table at
this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.
Showers north of DHN and ABY may begin to approach these terminals
by the end of the TAF period. Confidence is low on any impact
before the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Quiet marine conditions continue through today and into Monday
with light west and northwesterly winds likely and seas around 1
foot. A weakening frontal boundary will bring increased chances of
showers and thunderstorms on Monday. These rain chances continue
into the middle of the week with chances greatest in the overnight
hours. Increasing tropical moisture and southerly swell/winds
will possibly bring cautionary/advisory level conditions by the
middle of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Transport winds at around 5-10 mph will primarily be out of the west
today across the entire region. With high pressure still fixed over
the region, mixing heights will once again be around 6000-6500ft
areawide. This will generally lead to high dispersions; however,
headline level dispersions are not expected except for areas along
and east of the I-75 corridor. With deep layer mixing forecast
combined with continued dry air entrenched over the region, expect
minimum RH values to fall into the upper 20s to low 30s this
afternoon across the region. Overall, there are no fire weather
concerns today outside of high dispersions in the aforementioned
areas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Riverine flooding concerns aren`t expected through the next 5
days, but some riverine concerns are possible later this week and
into the weekend as we potentially see heavy rain as deep-layer
tropical moisture moves northwards. However, confidence on
where/if this heavy rainfall develops still remains highly
uncertain.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  96  73  93 /   0  40  30  30
Panama City   77  89  74  91 /   0  40  30  20
Dothan        73  93  69  89 /   0  40  20  10
Albany        74  93  69  90 /   0  50  30  20
Valdosta      74  96  71  92 /   0  40  40  30
Cross City    72  94  72  93 /   0  30  40  50
Apalachicola  77  90  76  88 /   0  30  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs