140
FXUS64 KTSA 201531
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1031 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have exited the area this morning which
will give way to a mostly clear and dry day for this afternoon.
Warm and humid conditions will be the story for today, with high
temperatures again topping out near 90 degrees. Southerly winds
will also be gusty again this afternoon, with gusts around 30 mph
for most of eastern Oklahoma with less breezy conditions across
northwest Arkansas. Going forecast looks in good shape with only
some minor updates to hourly grids to incorporate latest trends
and obs.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase again late
Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday evening as mid level
temperatures cool and a cold front begins to move into the area
from the north. Some of these storms will likely be severe, with
all severe weather hazards possible.

The frontal boundary will stall by late Wednesday across the
southern part of our forecast area, and will be the focus for
another round of showers and storms on both sides of the front.
Severe storms will again be possible, with hail being the main
threat on the cool side of the front. Locally heavy rainfall will
also be possible with this round of storms.

The front will lift north as a warm front later Thursday, and
another round of showers and storms will erupt as an upper wave
traverses the area.

Shower and storm chances will continue Friday through the weekend,
but confidence in location and timing of the best storm potential
is low at this time range. Long range models suggest the stormy
weather pattern may finally break early next week, and this
pattern change may be the beginning of the annual trend away from
severe storms and towards summer heat that normally starts taking
place just after Memorial Day.

Lowered NBM high temperatures late this week through the weekend
towards the MOS guidance numbers as the NBM seems to be
kickstarting the summer heat a bit too quickly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Decaying cluster of thunderstorms will continue over northeast
OK, with some re-generation of cells possible early in the
forecast period. Still could see strong gusty winds at
KBVO/KTUL/KRVS associated with any storm. Most likely, any storms
should dissipate before reaching northwest AR. Aside form that,
VFR conditions will prevail with gusty south winds from mid-
morning until around sunset Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  73  90  64 /  10   0  20  50
FSM   92  70  90  71 /  20   0   0  30
MLC   89  72  87  70 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   89  70  90  61 /  10   0  20  50
FYV   88  67  87  66 /  20   0  10  50
BYV   88  69  87  66 /  20   0  10  50
MKO   88  72  88  68 /  10   0  10  50
MIO   88  71  87  62 /  30   0  20  60
F10   88  72  87  66 /  10   0  10  40
HHW   87  69  86  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14