Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
778 FXUS65 KVEF 070757 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1257 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will hold over the region today, then will gradually break down this weekend as a trough approaches the West Coast. High temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal can be expected today, with a few record highs and record warm lows possible. Temperatures will slowly retreat over the weekend, but will remain above normal into next week. && .SHORT TERM...through Sunday night. Midnight satellite loop showed mid level convective debris clouds over the southern Great Basin and cirrus clouds pushing northward into the Mojave Desert. Surface obs showed generally light winds and temperatures running a few degrees above 24 hours ago, on average. Forecast HeatRisk values for today and Saturday have come down a fraction, but the Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory will remain unchanged. Today will be the third day of dangerous heat for much of the region, prolonging the exposure for those at risk. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be another concern. Yesterday, showers developed in Lincoln County and as far south as the Spring Mountains, overperforming even the high resolution models, which are usually overdone with coverage and/or amounts. Looking back, this seems best correlated with a small finger of precipitable water at or above 200 percent of normal for early June. This afternoon, the best PWs stretch from the southern Sierra through the Nevada National Security Site, and manually increased PoPs there. A small secondary PW axis lies over San Bernardino County, but 500 mb temps are a couple of degrees warmer there, which could inhibit convection. Most of the better moisture lifts north out of our area Saturday and especially Sunday, quashing PoPs. Temperatures will come down a little more on Saturday and be noticeably less hot on Sunday (for example, 103 in Las Vegas as opposed to Thursday`s 111). .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday. Trough moving into the west coast will help develop a cutoff low off the southern California coast Monday and remain nearly stationary before being caught up in mean flow Wednesday or Thursday and pushed northeast into the Desert Southwest. There is no indication at this time that we will see any moisture influx with this low, but as the previous shift mentioned, there are often surprises with these systems. The latest extended model ensembles show a broad trough digging into the western US late next week. Although we could see a slight bump in temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, it looks like temperatures could fall closer to normal toward the end of next week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will remain light, 10 knots or less, and will follow typical diurnal directional trends through mid- afternoon when breezy southwesterly winds will pickup. These 15 to 20 knot breezy southwesterly wind gusts will continue into the evening hours before dropping off, with winds maintaining a more southwesterly direction through the overnight hours. Similar to yesterday, convection may pop up in the higher terrain around the Las Vegas Valley this afternoon. Any showers that do develop shouldn`t move off the terrain and make it to the terminal area. However, it is possible that outflow winds may result in wind shifts. This afternoon convection will be driven by diurnal heating and will dissipate shortly after sunset. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Similar to yesterday, KBIH, KHND, and KVGT may see afternoon convection in the higher terrain surrounding the Owens and Las Vegas Valleys. Low confidence in any showers or thunderstorms moving off the terrain and impacting the terminal areas. However, outflow winds could result in breezy winds from varying directions. Otherwise, winds at these TAF sites will remain light, 10 knots or less, and will follow typical diurnal directional trends through mid- afternoon. Breezy southerly-to-southwesterly winds will pick up around mid-afternoon with 15 to 20 knot wind gusts continuing into the evening hours before dropping off. KDAG will favor a more westerly to west-southwesterly direction with 20 to 30 knot wind gusts picking up this afternoon. The Colorado River Valley TAF sites will see light and variable winds pick up and swing around to the south. The 15 to 20 knot wind gusts associated with this wind shift will continue into the evening hours before dropping off. && .CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures and record high minimum temperatures have been tied or broken this week. The table below shows the daily record high temperature and record high minimum temperature for June 7 and June 8. RECORD HIGH FRI, JUNE 7 SAT, JUNE 8 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 109(2013) 112(2013) Bishop 103(2013) 105(2016) Needles 117(2013) 118(1955) Barstow-Daggett 112(1985) 113(2013) Kingman 106(2013) 107(1955) Death Valley 123(1995) 123(2013) RECORD WARM FRI, JUNE 7 SAT, JUNE 8 LOW Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 86(2010) 84(2016) Bishop 61(2016) 64(2014) Needles 95(2016) 85(2013) Barstow-Daggett 81(2002) 77(2016) Kingman 74(1928) 74(1927) Death Valley 93(2006) 94(2022) && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Morgan LONG TERM...Gorelow AVIATION...Stessman For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter