748
FXAK67 PAJK 231244
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
444 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday night/ Rather wet day in store
for the panhandle as a front moves through the panhandle today.
Rain has already started across most of the area but has yet to
reach Haines and Skagway as of 4 am. Satellite imagery also shows
at least one weak low center embedded in the front just off Cape
Edgecombe this morning. This whole mess is expected to lift ENE
across the area through the day with rain gradually diminishing
from W to E tonight (though showers will stick around as onshore
flow continues). Expected rainfall through tonight is around a
quarter to three quarters of an inch.

Despite the front moving through, winds have been rather light
especially in the inner channels. Most areas have only been
showing 15 kt or less of wind with the highest winds seen in
Clarence Strait. That is expected to remain the case for the
inner channels through tonight. The gulf waters will be a little
more frisky as westerly winds behind the front are expected to
pick up to 25 kt by midday for the near coastal waters south of
Cross Sound and will remain around 20 kt through tonight as well.


.LONG TERM.../ Friday through Monday night / Once the rain moves
through and accompanying low diminishes into a weak broad open
trough, skies are set to progressively clear out by Friday morning.
This will allow for potential fog development in areas which can see
maximized radiational cooling in the overnight hours along with
light winds. Clearing skies on Friday also means warmer temperatures
once more, with daytime highs rebounding back to upper 50s and near
60 for the majority of the panhandle. Temperatures are not expected
to go any higher than this despite clearer conditions due to
unseasonably cold air aloft at 850 mb.

Unfortunately unsettled weather combined with the cooler air aloft
will lead to a rather wet and cool holiday weekend overall. An upper
level low is set to drift over the northern gulf with an
accompanying surface low, which will stagnate and continue to throw
light precipitation towards SE AK starting late Friday night into
Saturday, continuing into the start of next week. Overall this
system is not expected to have strong winds associated with it,
though expect some localized gusty winds near ocean entrances and
the potential for winds up to 25 kt along the NE gulf coast Saturday
afternoon/night.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions continue to deteriorate this morning as our
system moves across the Panhandle. Expect mostly MVFR with CIGS FL010
to FL025. Under heavier bursts of rain we will see IFR. Expect
some improvement for a few hours later this evening but MVFR
conditions expected to persist, with the potential for IFR CIGS
and BCFG by early Friday morning. Low level turbulence below
ridges also expected today but not enough to warrant LLWS in the 12z
TAF package.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...AP

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau