007
FXUS64 KAMA 281720
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1220 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

East and southeast winds continue to advect low level moisture into
the Panhandles.  Ongoing storms over southern Oklahoma and northern
Texas as well as the far southeast Texas Panhandle are expected to
send an outflow boundary back to the west.  Models do not agree on
how fast this outflow boundary will move.  If it moves faster and re-
enforces the cold front to our south, then the better chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon may be to our south.  If the outflow
boundary moves slower and ends up near an Amarillo to Dumas line by
mid afternoon, then thunderstorms could develop in this area by mid
to late afternoon.  If the outflow boundary moves slower it will
also give a surface low over southeast New Mexico now a chance to
move northward and be over the southwest Texas Panhandle.  This low
will provide extra convergence with this outflow boundary as it will
have a dryline trailing southward from it.  The dryline/outflow
boundary collision would likely be strong enough for thunderstorm
development.  Another round of thunderstorms are expected to move
east-southeast from northeast New Mexico late this afternoon and
this evening.  These storms would have the potential to move
northwest to southeast across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and the
Texas Panhandle.  Any storms that form will be capable of producing
large hail to around 2" in diameter, damaging winds to around 70 mph
and very heavy rain which could lead to flooding.  A tornado can not
be ruled out given the turning of winds with height.

On Wednesday, have lowered pops a bit, mainly in the south as the
airmass may be worked over depending on how much convection rolls
across the Panhandles this afternoon or tonight.  However, more
convection should roll this way from northeast New Mexico early in
the evening and these showers and thunderstorms will have a chance
to move across the Panhandles in association with another short
wave trough moving through the flow.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Thursday remains intriguing regarding the chances for strong to
severe thunderstorms, if conditions can come together. The
biggest downside factors as of latest 00z model trends appear to
be cloud cover across portions of the area, as well as lack of
higher 0-6km bulk shear, likely only on the order of 25-35 kts.
The largest upsides on the other hand, would be high moisture
content (60s dew pts and anomalously high PWATs), better dynamical
forcing from an embedded shortwave, and potentially strong
instability (>3000 J/kg) if/wherever cloud cover breaks. As the
shortwave passes overhead, a diffuse dryline/sfc trough looks to
set up around the central Panhandles, possibly even towards the
TX-NM border if more aggressive guidance is to be believed. Any
resulting thunderstorms Thursday afternoon-evening could become
severe with primarily a wind and large hail risk, but wouldn`t be
able to rule out a low tornado risk if better shear materializes.
While rain chances are currently highest in the east, that is
also where highest confidence in lingering cloud cover exists. And
unlike previous events, this setup actually looks to threaten a
larger portion of the CWA (not just the eastern Panhandles for a
change) with the dryline likely setting up further west. Overall
rain/storm chances are trending upwards area wide, ranging from
30-50% POPs in the west to 50-80% POPs in the east Thursday
afternoon and evening. Abundance of moisture in place along with
the possibility of additional overnight convection trailing over
previous areas of heavy rainfall would pose a risk of localized
flooding.

Showers and thunderstorms may persist Friday, perhaps pulsing up
again in the afternoon behind a weak front, but details will
hinge upon overnight-early morning activity. Saturday and/or
Sunday may also need monitoring for strong to severe storms when
ensembles agree instability could return in spades ahead of
additional minor perturbations, but capping could be a concern
along with a slew of other possible wrenches in the works. After
a weak cool front provides a brief cool down Friday, temperatures
quickly rebound to the 80s and 90s this weekend.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

The main forecast issue for the next 24 hours will be the
potential for thunderstorms at all TAF sites later this afternoon
into this evening. These thunderstorms may produce large hail and
strong downdrafts with erratic winds at the surface. Have
attempted to time the storms based on latest forecasts, but better
clarity should exist once storms develop. Amendments will likely
be needed. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings are possible later tonight
into early tomorrow morning.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                58  78  61  85 /  50  30  50  40
Beaver OK                  58  80  60  85 /  60  30  50  60
Boise City OK              54  79  58  85 /  70  40  40  50
Borger TX                  60  84  63  88 /  50  30  50  50
Boys Ranch TX              58  84  62  91 /  50  40  50  40
Canyon TX                  56  79  60  87 /  40  30  40  30
Clarendon TX               58  76  60  80 /  50  40  50  50
Dalhart TX                 54  81  58  86 /  60  40  40  40
Guymon OK                  56  80  59  85 /  70  30  50  50
Hereford TX                57  82  61  91 /  40  30  40  30
Lipscomb TX                59  79  62  82 /  60  40  50  60
Pampa TX                   58  78  61  82 /  50  30  50  50
Shamrock TX                59  79  61  80 /  50  40  50  60
Wellington TX              60  79  62  80 /  50  40  50  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...52