Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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358 FXUS61 KBGM 052308 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 708 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Steadier rain and embedded thunderstorms moves through tonight into Thursday. Strong to severe storms possible for Thursday mid-morning through the afternoon. An upper level low then brings an unsettled, cooler and showery weather pattern for Friday and the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Only minor changes with the early evening update. Most of the incoming showers are on the lighter side and will only slide east through the evening. Some heavier showers do still have the potential to reach NE PA later this evening. 315 PM Update... An upper-level system will be pushing a warm front through our area in the next few hours, bringing scattered rain showers and storms through the evening. As this system approaches the area a little more overnight, another round of much steadier, heavier rainfall will push through overnight Wednesday and into Thursday. High precipitable values of 1.5 to 1.8 inches will help to bring in more intense rainfall, but the progressive nature of the front bringing the rainfall will help push things along and minimize chances for flash flooding. Though, there still is a chance for flash flooding where multiple batches of heavier rainfall occur over an area. For Thursday, rainfall will continue through the early morning hours. There may be a slight break in rain, or at least the intensity will decrease, before a line of strong to severe storms may develop and move through Thursday mid-morning through the afternoon. CAPE values jump to 500-1000 j/kg, and even some up to 1500 for northern portions of Central NY. If severe storms were to develop, the main threat will likely be strong to damaging winds. Things should be winding down towards the evening hours, with some scattered showers lingering around through Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 306 PM Update... A complex blocking pattern across Canada and the North Atlantic will result in broad troughing across the northeastern CONUS through early next week. Embedded in that pattern, a closed mid-level low will move slowly from Georgian Bay to the Ottawa Valley between Friday morning and Saturday night. Several weaker shortwave troughs will swing through our area like spokes on a wheel through the period, modulating periods of showers and thunderstorms, with cooler air aloft bringing below normal temperatures. Timing of a shortwave trough on Friday looks to be fairly well-timed with the diurnal cycle for fairly widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Bulk shear values are impressive, 50-60 knots, but instability looks to be weak, with the typically hot-running NAM suggesting max CAPE values of 300-400 J/Kg. Precip looks to die off quickly after dark as the shortwave trough pushes east of the area and daytime heating abates. Additional showers look to favor mainly areas north of the Twin Tiers on Saturday as another shortwave trough rolls through early in the day. Another more significant round of showers is possible Saturday night as a stronger shortwave trough drops through the area. Though uncertainty remains high, a narrow band of heavier precipitation is possible with this disturbance. High temps look to hang around the upper-60s to lower-70s Friday and Saturday, roughly 5 degrees below seasonal normals. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 306 PM Update... As the slow-moving upper low finally moves into the Saint Lawrence Valley Sunday, a final shortwave trough looks to dig down into the lower Great Lakes. This will bring widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region, along with continued cooler than normal temperatures. Cyclonic NW flow will persist into Monday, with additional mostly diurnally-driven showers expected. A weak shortwave trough pushing through may favor the late morning and early afternoon hours for precip, with drier conditions moving in by evening. Temperatures look to remain cooler than normal, with highs in the upper-60s to lower-70s again. Finally, a drier spell looks to set up beginning Tuesday. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 120 PM Update... VFR conditions are expected at all terminals for the next 6 hours. MVFR conditions and rain showers will move into each of the terminals, west to east, this evening. Rainfall will intensify overnight, leading to conditions falling from MVFR, to fuel alt, and then to IFR by the end of the 06/08Z for all terminals. These conditions will likely last through at least 12Z, but there`s uncertainity with exact timing of improving conditions after 12Z, so we made the decision to leave all terminals in IFR at the end of this TAF package. Outlook... Thursday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms around with MVFR Fuel Alt and even IFR restrictions likely. Lifting back to mainly VFR after around 18z Thursday afternoon. Thursday night through Sunday... Occasional showers with brief restrictions likely. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...KL/MWG SHORT TERM...MPH LONG TERM...MPH AVIATION...KL