089
FXUS64 KBMX 091840
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
140 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024

Key Messages:
- Conditional risk for shower and thunderstorm activity this
  afternoon through tonight, some storms may be severe with a
  damaging wind and hail risk.

This afternoon.

The forecast area is positioned between a flattening mid-level
ridge over the Western Gulf of Mexico and a persistent upper low
over far Southeast Canada. A shortwave disturbance is moving east-
southeast over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley Region, resulting
in shower and thunderstorm activity. Further south. a well-
defined surface outflow boundary was located by visible satellite
across North Mississippi, extending into Northwest Alabama. A
surface cold front extended from the Central Plains northeast into
the Mid-Atlantic region.

So far, low-level convergence along the outflow boundary to our
northwest has not been sufficient to overcome the drier air and
poor lapse rates aloft that were sampled on the BMX 09/12z
sounding. There remains potential for an eventual overcoming of
these limiting factors with the formation of sustained shower and
thunderstorm activity. If successful, rapid upscale growth would
be favored as ample low-level instability exists with SBCAPE
values from 2000-3000 J/kg across portions of this area per latest
RAP 13 km mesoanalysis data. This area also is experiencing 0-6
km shear values from 30-40 kts which supports storm organization
and persistence through time once initiation is successful. If
activity can initiate and sustain and grow, a convective complex
of showers and storms would move east-southeast, affecting our
northwest counties initially through mid afternoon, then expanding
southeast, affecting much of our northern and central counties
through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours.
Otherwise, skies will be partly cloudy far north and mostly sunny
south with high temperatures warmer than forecast, with readings
in the mid 90s areawide if a drier scenario prevails. Winds will
remain from the west at 5-10 mph.

Tonight.

Another shortwave impulse associated with a longwave trough will
drop southeast over the Mid-South Region this evening. This
feature is supporting ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity
across portions of Northeast Arkansas and Southeast Missouri. This
activity will move east-southeast with time and it or its outflow
may result in additional shower and thunderstorm development this
evening and overnight with the nearing trough from the northwest
and the advancing surface cold front that will be positioned
roughly along the Interstate 20 corridor before midnight. Winds
will become northwest behind the front with west winds persisting
ahead of the front with speeds from 4-8 mph. Low temperatures will
range from the mid 60s far northwest to the low 70s generally
near and south of the U.S. Highway 80 corridor.

Monday.

The national flow pattern amplifies on Monday with longwave
troughing over the Tennessee Valley extending northeast toward the
upper low located just northeast of Maine while ridging builds
over much of the Plains. The surface cold front will continue to
advance south toward the Gulf Coast through the day. Decreasing
clouds are forecast across the northwest half of the area while
lingering clouds with chances for shower and thunderstorm activity
will continue across the southern half of the area through the
morning hours, becoming increasingly confined to the far southeast
counties after noontime. Dry conditions will return areawide by
the evening hours. Winds will be from the northwest areawide with
speeds from 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from the low
80s far north and in the higher elevations east to readings around
90 across the far southeast counties.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024

A significant upper-level trough east of the Mississippi River and
the associated confluence zone will support relative high pressure
moving southward into the Ohio Valley and southern states. A
cooler and much drier airmass will be advected from the north
Monday night with lows ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s
from north to south. Dry conditions and low relative humidity
values should continue Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
remains in control under northwesterly flow at 500 mb.

While moisture will gradually increase Thursday through Saturday,
the arrival of increased rain chances could be delayed. Models are
trending toward more ridging across the Deep South, keeping a
disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico south of our area through
Saturday. Our latest forecast significantly undercuts the NBM POPs
Thursday through Saturday, and it is possible that most of the
forecast area remains dry.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024

VFR conditions will continue for a few more hours across the
north and will prevail across the south through this evening. A
surface cold front will move south into the area late this
afternoon with chances for showers and some thunderstorms. This
activity is forecast to affect the northern sites as early as 23z
and persist through the night. Rain and storm chances will
decrease into the morning on Monday from north to south with much
of the activity expected to affect the southern sites as early as
12z Monday and persisting through the end of this cycle.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to remain above critical levels
over the next few days. Overnight RH recovery should be in the
upper 70s to low 90s. 20-foot winds should run at or less than 7
mph over the next few days, west-northwesterly today, and
northerly on Monday. Some showers and thunderstorms may occur late
this afternoon into tonight as a front moves across the area.
Additional isolated to scattered showers are possible Monday
afternoon across the southern half of the area as the front
finally clears the area. Dry weather is expected from Tuesday
through at least Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  83  57  84 /  60  40   0   0
Anniston    67  83  58  85 /  60  40   0   0
Birmingham  68  84  61  85 /  60  40   0   0
Tuscaloosa  70  86  61  86 /  60  30   0   0
Calera      68  85  62  85 /  50  30   0   0
Auburn      70  86  65  86 /  40  40  10   0
Montgomery  72  87  66  87 /  30  30  10   0
Troy        71  89  66  88 /  10  40  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05