074
FXUS64 KBMX 071708
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1208 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024

The cold front this morning is current just across the northern
counties of Alabama but will begin to slide south through the
night and into Friday afternoon. In fact it should be along the
Gulf Coast by 3 to 4 PM. Winds will be brisk at times but
generally less than 15 mph. As we move through the afternoon, high
pressure build in and will be in place through Saturday. Highs
will be in the upper 80s to low 90s each day, with Saturday being
the warmer of the two.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024

There is significant model disagreement in the long term period,
centered around the evolution of troughing over the eastern CONUS.
On Sunday, an upper-level ridge will weaken as it gets booted
from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Gulf of Mexico by a
developing trough to the northeast. Height falls and the approach
of a cold front could trigger isolated convection in our far
northern counties Sunday afternoon and evening.

Forecast confidence drops significantly for Monday and Tuesday.
The handling of a shortwave over the southern part of central
Canada is wildly different between the ECMWF and GFS. The ECMWF
leaves this shortwave behind and develops a deep eastern trough on
Monday. The GFS is much flatter with more zonal flow as the
trough over Canada gets pulled southward toward the Mississippi
Valley. The ECMWF solution would result in a nearly dry frontal
passage on Monday followed by dry conditions on Tuesday. The GFS
is completely opposite, with the frontal passage delayed in
response to a shortwave approaching from the northwest, leading to
wet conditions on Tuesday.

In general, there is model support for low POPs on Wednesday from
both models and perhaps a slow increase in moisture content for
Thursday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle with limited areas
of scattered clouds across the east and southeast portion of the
area this afternoon followed by clear skies areawide overnight.
Some limited high clouds will move over the northern sites on
Saturday but dry conditions will persist. Winds will be from the
north today at 7-14 kts, breezy at times through the afternoon
then will be from the north at 3-6 kts overnight followed by a
more easterly flow developing during the day Saturday with speeds
from 4-8 kts.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air filters in today behind a cold front, with rain free
conditions expected areawide through Saturday night. Minimum RH
values will range from 28 to 38 percent this afternoon and 30 to
40 percent Saturday afternoon. Overnight RH values will range
from 75 to 90 percent. 20ft winds will remain from the northwest
today, at 5 to 9 mph, before becoming light and variable on
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  89  64  92 /   0   0   0  20
Anniston    58  90  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  62  92  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  60  92  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
Calera      59  90  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      62  90  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  60  90  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        61  92  65  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05