564
FXUS63 KDLH 270528
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1228 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms through
  Tuesday over portions of the Northland. The threat for severe
  thunderstorms is low.

- Dense fog is expected tonight.

- Frost is possible Tuesday and Wednesday night for portions of
  the Northland.

- A dry period will occur Wednesday and Thursday before heavy
  rain potential returns for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Todays system will cross NW WI this afternoon but latest model
runs have the heaviest precipitation largely missing us to the
south as the highest PWATS remain to our SE. This system will
ramp up the pressure gradient along Lake Superior and will
funnel a quick burst of wind and cooler temperatures inland this
afternoon. This should eventually turn into low stratus and fog
overnight as winds weaken overnight and dry air aloft allows for
good radiational cooling to help form dense fog. Issued a Dense
Fog Advisory in preparation for the strong model trends towards
this occurring especially with the busy travel weekend to allow
for better planning.

A fast-moving clipper follows for a little more rain on Monday
with instability building as CAPE values creep into the 1000
J/kg territory near the Brainerd Lakes region though with little
shear to work with any storms should be up and down as the
updrafts get squashed by the rain shafts. An upper low on
Tuesday will give more shower activity similar to Monday just
further east in NW WI.

A colder air mass settles over the region Wednesday and
Thursday with high pressure building and dry air aloft allowing
for good cooling at night. Frost is looking likely for portions
of the Arrowhead and NW WI.

Rain returns for the start of next weekend with another hefty
plume of high PWAT air jetting northward increasing the threat
for heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR to start the forecast period off with some VFR stratus building
across the Arrowhead. Models have greatly backed off the fog
forecast for later this morning. I haven`t fully bought into this
solution as our dewpoint depressions are almost within a few degrees
of each other. Rather then pull the visibility restrictions completely
from the forecast I opted to bring them to the MVFR/IFR category.
Should fog form it will dissipate quickly after sunrise. Rain enters
from the west later this morning with a few thunderstorms possible
for BRD. Isolated rain showers will remain possible through the
afternoon hours across the region.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Winds are expected to quickly accelerate this afternoon causing
conditions hazardous to small craft. As the northeasterly winds
bring in the cool, moist lake air, there should be fog formation
overnight, so have a Marine Dense Fog Advisory in effect
tonight. High pressure should briefly build tomorrow before an
incoming system brings a threat for thunderstorms Monday
afternoon near the Twin Ports.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ012-019-
     020-035>038.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>003.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-
     143>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Wolfe