Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 271743 AAB
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1243 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

The Northland can expect warm weather today. West-southwest flow
will develop as an upper-level trough approaches from the west.
While mid to upper level cloud cover will spread through the
region this morning and early afternoon, there should be better
sunshine later this afternoon. Temperatures will likely climb into
the lower 70s for much of the region. Low chances of showers and
weak storms are forecast for the northwest forecast area very late
this afternoon and this evening when a cool front approaches the
region.

The cool front and a more potent upper-level trough will move
through the Northland tonight and Sunday. This will bring chances
of showers. The best chances will be late Sunday morning and
Sunday afternoon because of the widespread instability likely to
develop in the cool west-northwest flow. Daytime heating should
result in scattered showers and isolated/scattered thunderstorms
for Sunday. There could be up to several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE,
but the threat of strong storms will be hampered by the lack of
deep layer shear. Brief small hail is possible, though, with the
stronger storms. High temperatures should range from the upper 60s
in northwest Wisconsin to the low 60s in the northwest forecast
area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

An upper level low over northwest Ontario Sunday evening will
move slowly toward northern Lake Superior by Monday evening. A
shortwave will move around the low and continue to bring a chance
for showers and a few thunderstorms to the Northland Sunday night
into Monday. Chances for rain will be highest over far northern
Minnesota. The low will deepen some as it reforms just west of
Hudson Bay on Tuesday. A couple more shortwaves will affect the
area Monday night into Tuesday evening keeping the chance for
showers going for most areas. Widespread heavy rainfall will be
unlikely Sunday night through Tuesday evening.

A relatively dry period is then expected Wednesday through Friday
under northwest flow aloft. A low level ridge will also be moving
over the region by late in the week. There may be a period of low
coverage light showers during the mid to late week time but no
significant rainfall is expected.

High temperatures will start off cool with highs Monday and
Tuesday in the mid fifties to around sixty. Temperatures will then
gradually warm through the week reaching the upper sixties to
lower seventies by Friday. As temperatures warm late week the flow
will switch to off of Lake Superior keeping those areas cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

VFR conditions expected for this afternoon and into tonight. A
trough will begin to move in from the west later this afternoon,
bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms, but this activity
is expected to remain west of the terminals. Clouds will work in
overnight and Sunday morning bringing some MVFR ceilings. Showers
will also be possible Sunday morning across the Minnesota
terminals. West to southwest winds will be seen this afternoon
with some gusts to 15 to 20 mph before diminishing this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  47  64  46 /  10  20  50  50
INL  71  46  62  46 /  20  30  60  60
BRD  74  49  67  49 /  10  30  40  40
HYR  73  47  68  47 /  10  10  50  40
ASX  71  48  67  47 /  10  10  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...BJH



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