Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
126 FXUS64 KFWD 031047 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 547 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected through Friday with the highest rain chances (40-60%) west of Highway 281. - Severe storms are not expected, but gusty winds, outflow boundaries and isolated lightning may impact outdoor festivities. - Occasional rain chances continue through the weekend and into next week with seasonable high temperatures remaining in the 90s. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 119 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025/ /Today through Friday Night/ Overcast skies are in place tonight with a few showers ongoing primarily across the western/SWern periphery of the forecast area. This will be the favored location for precipitation over the next few hours, with a gradual expansion eastward heading into the morning as a weak disturbance moves through, rounding the western periphery of the ridge. An area of enhanced low level moisture transport will support showers and a few storms developing towards the I-35 corridor closer to mid/late morning, with a weakening trend farther east as the activity encounters stronger subsidence. Convection should be somewhat similar to Wednesday with showers and a few isolated storms developing, with a relative lull in activity on the radarscope potentially setting up midday/early afternoon. Latest high-res guidance is favoring western Central TX for an additional wave of convection blossoming by late afternoon and gradually shifting eastward again in the evening and overnight hours. The highest rain chances (40-60%) are still favored across the Big Country, but 20-30% PoPs are maintained across the rest of the forecast area in the afternoon with the best chances being west of I-35 Thursday evening and night. Severe weather is not expected but gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and lightning will all be hazards with any storms that develop. As the upper level trough lifts into the Plains Thursday night into Friday morning, 925-850 mb moisture transport will become maximized across the western half of the region from the increased low level southerly flow. An embedded disturbance moving through as the trough shifts into the Plains will continue to support scattered showers and storms mainly through Friday morning, although 30-50% PoPs are maintained through the afternoon hours for those near and west of I-35. Any showers and storms are likely to diminish by the evening, but this will have to be watched closely for the timing of this round and any associated impacts to outdoor festivities for Independence Day. Otherwise, from the increased cloudiness and scattered showers/storms tomorrow, highs will mostly be in the 80s, with readings as much as 10 degrees below normal. Friday will be slightly warmer with upper 80s/low 90s and continued elevated humidity along with mostly cloudy skies becoming partly sunny. Gordon && .LONG TERM... /Issued 119 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025/ /Saturday Onward/ The influence of the upper level ridge will increase over the weekend, but with it becoming centered over the Desert Southwest, the opportunity for showers and storms will continue Saturday and Sunday. Guidance is shifting towards weak mid level troughing persisting compared to previous runs, with disturbances moving through the northerly upper level flow. Rain chances this weekend will again be favored for western portions of the forecast area before increased subsidence arrives late in the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures in the low/mid 90s this weekend will warm into the mid/upper 90s by next week with triple digit heat indices becoming more likely Monday onward. Conditions are favored to be drier during this time period, but rain chances won`t be entirely shut-off either given the overall pattern. Gordon && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Showers have continued to develop across much of Central Texas and the Big Country this morning with pockets of MVFR cigs/vis as showers move through. Main timing window this morning for D10 for these showers will be ~14-17Z, and have included a TEMPO for high-end MVFR cigs/vis during this time. Occasional lightning strikes cannot be ruled out, but the thunder potential remains too low to include any TSRA. Scattered showers and a few storms will still be ongoing across the region beyond this time period, but will have to monitor trends and update as needed, since activity beyond midday is favored more towards Central TX and less certain for D10. VCSH has been maintained through 03Z for DFW sites to account for the break in activity expected, but timing will need to be refined. An additional precip mention will also likely br needed in future issuances to account for Friday`s activity at all sites, but confidence is low in timing/coverage for that time period. For Waco, the TEMPO for MVFR will continue through mid-morning before a lull in activity is expected, with VCSH through 19Z. Another round of showers and potentially TSRA may develop and impact KACT ~03Z and beyond, but the eastward extent of this activity is less confident. Have only included VCSH for now, as well as a SCT025, given additional MVFR potential during this time (likely closer to 09Z and later, if it were to occur). Gordon && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 75 90 76 93 / 30 30 20 5 10 Waco 88 75 90 75 93 / 40 30 20 5 10 Paris 88 73 89 73 92 / 30 20 20 5 5 Denton 86 73 90 75 94 / 40 30 30 5 10 McKinney 87 74 90 75 92 / 30 30 20 5 5 Dallas 88 75 91 76 94 / 30 30 20 5 5 Terrell 89 74 91 74 93 / 30 20 20 5 5 Corsicana 92 75 91 75 94 / 30 20 20 5 5 Temple 88 73 90 72 93 / 50 30 20 10 10 Mineral Wells 86 73 89 73 93 / 50 40 40 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$