288
FXUS64 KFWD 311814
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
114 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Saturday Night/

After a period of very active weather, North and Central Texas
will have the better part of today and tonight with generally
quiet conditions as morning thunderstorms have left a relatively
stable airmass in its wake. A weak upper disturbance is also
pulling off to the northeast as evident in water vapor imagery
suggesting that any additional ascent will be departing the
region. Early afternoon surface analysis indicates a high theta-e
boundary draped across our southwest counties and this is really
the only area where isolated convection may occur through the rest
of the afternoon. Otherwise, we`ll keep PoPs at 10% or less.

Later tonight, thunderstorms should develop well off to the
northwest across the Panhandle and given the modest northwest flow
aloft, should make a run at North Texas late tonight. Unlike the
last few nights though, instability is considerably weaker and
these storms should weaken as they approach. We`ll have 20% PoPs
across the northwest initially spreading throughout the rest of
the CWA during the day Saturday. Depending on whether or not these
storms make it into North Texas will impact PoPs on Saturday with
a remnant boundary likely resulting in a little better coverage
of afternoon scattered showers and storms. Low storm chances will
continue into Saturday night with the overall severe threat rather
low. With wet grounds throughout North and Central Texas, any
additional rainfall could cause some flooding issues.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 302 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/
Update:

The overnight suite of forecast data did not change significantly
from what is discussed below, therefore no major changes have
been made to the forecast at this time.

With that being said, the long-range ensemble mean guidance does
have a better signal of northwest flow aloft late next week into
next weekend. Depending on how far east the upper ridge over the
Western CONUS builds and how deep the Eastern CONUS trough digs,
there is a 30% chance an unsettled weather pattern returns, or
even continues, into next weekend.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion:
/Saturday Through The Upcoming Week/

An unsettled pattern will continue through the upcoming weekend,
with convective activity mainly concentrated along two regions
across our area. The first of which will be along our western
counties as dryline convection continues to propagate to the east
overnight, with the second being along the Red River and across
North Texas through the morning hours on both Saturday and Sunday.

Additional convection will push through portions of the region
once again through the start of next week as the pattern will
remain largely unchanged. With several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms moving through overnight into the morning hours each
day, strong to severe weather will be possible. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threats, with a very low chance
for tornadoes. Of course, these specific hazards will depend on a
variety of factors. Placement of surface boundaries and outflow
boundary interactions will largely influence the extent and
coverage of any severe weather. These features will be closely
monitored each day as real-time analysis and high-res model
guidance allow us to get a much better handle on potential hazards
through the upcoming days. Conversely, it is also possible that
mesoscale interactions lessen the severe threat - such as is the
case with outflow dominant, multi-cell thunderstorms that lack a
substantially strong cold pool. It`s difficult to nail these
specific mesoscale phenomena several days out, which only adds to
the emphasis to continue to remain weather aware through the next
several days as details can be further refined and the forecast
gains additional value. Furthermore, the threat for additional
flooding will remain in place through the start of next week as
well as heavy rainfall will be possible at times. It won`t take
much to cause issues, so stay on your feet for additional flooding.

A potential pattern shift may be on the horizon, which would
lessen our chances for showers and thunderstorms considerably.
This would also lead to an increase in afternoon highs, with
temperatures gradually climbing through the end of next week. This
is the direct result of the mid level ridge currently located
across our west strengthening and pushing more into the
Central/Southern Plains. This will effectively cut off the
unsettled pattern that we`ve been in as of late, or at least slow
it down considerably. Our attention will begin to turn toward the
potential heat, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and
dewpoints lingering in the low to mid 70s. This could result in
heat indices reaching between 100 to 105 through the end of the
week, which may begin to cause issues related to heat illness.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Morning convection has exited the area and generally resulted in a
stable environment in its wake. Some MVFR cigs have persisted
across the D10 airspace this afternoon, but VFR should generally
prevail through the rest of the afternoon into the evening.
Increasing southerly flow and some airmass recovery will lead to
some morning MVFR stratus. Otherwise we`ll be watching the
potential for a few storms to spread into the D10 airspace late
tonight from the northwest, but coverage should be considerably
less than last night.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  70  87  73  88 /  30  10  20  10  30
Waco                82  70  85  73  87 /  60  10  20  10  30
Paris               79  66  85  70  85 /  80  10  20  10  30
Denton              82  66  86  70  87 /  20  10  20  10  30
McKinney            81  67  85  71  87 /  50  10  20  10  30
Dallas              82  70  88  73  89 /  40  10  20  10  30
Terrell             81  68  85  71  87 /  70  10  20  10  30
Corsicana           82  70  87  74  89 /  80  10  20  10  30
Temple              82  70  86  73  89 /  70  20  20   5  30
Mineral Wells       82  68  87  71  87 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$