708
FXUS64 KFWD 310802
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
302 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 204 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/
/Today and Tomorrow/

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across
North and Central Texas in the pre-dawn hours, with additional
rain and storm chances later in the day and overnight. The overall
trend early this morning is that there is much more instability
across the Southern Big Country and Western Central Texas, with
weakening instability further east. Using this as the baseline,
there is currently a weakening line of showers/storms moving into
East Texas, largely producing brief heavy rain and wind gusts to
around 25 mph. The main impact from this will be across Central
Texas, where some backbuilding is taking place on the upshear
flank of the cold pool that could create localized flash flooding.
Another complex of storms is moving into Western North and Central
Texas that has become better organized in the past hour or two
west of our forecast area. We will approach this complex in two
parts, the northern and southern, using I-20 as a decent
delineating line between the two. The northern part of the line
has remained sub-severe, and although an isolated severe storm
can`t be ruled out...it should largely remain sub-severe as it
moves east across North Texas early this morning. Winds could gust
as high as around 40 mph and may contain small hail. The line is
producing heavy rain and may lead to short-lived minor or flash
flooding.

Our main concern early this morning will be the southern part of
the complex of storms as it moves across the southwest part of our
forecast area. The cold pool/stable air from earlier storms
extends from about Eastland->Waco. The air to the southwest of
this line remains largely undisturbed, and therefore has a higher
severe potential. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts,
with a lower threat of large hail. Expect the line to move ESE
through the pre-dawn hours and move southeast of our area after
sunrise. This line would reinvigorate flooding issues across parts
of Central Texas that receive training storms where the initial,
weakening, cluster of storms is ongoing.

After the aforementioned complexes move east, forecast confidence
takes a dive. The region will remain under broad mid-level ascent
and northwest flow aloft today, keeping the door open for more
storms today. The first of these potential clusters of storms is
expected to develop over West Texas along a cold pool stalled near
Lubbock. The CAM guidance is all over the place, but largely has
storms developing along this boundary sometime near sunrise. After
the storms develop, they should congeal into a line of storms and
move ESE, moving across the southwestern half of our forecast are
in the mid-morning to early-afternoon. The severe threat will
depend on how much time passes between the early-morning storms
and this line. More time would result in a higher severe threat.
Additional isolated to scattered storms may develop across North
Texas in the afternoon that would have a severe threat as well.
The storms would need a surface boundary to develop along and
that is hard to pinpoint, even at this time.

Subtle mid-level ridging looks to build into the region tonight,
helping lower precip chances to around 20% areawide. We`ll have to
keep an eye on any weakening MCSs that develop over West Texas in
the afternoon/evening, but the overall threat for strong to severe
storms and flooding will be much lower Friday night than it has
been for much of the week.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The overnight suite of forecast data did not change significantly
from what is discussed below, therefore no major changes have
been made to the forecast at this time.

With that being said, the long-range ensemble mean guidance does
have a better signal of northwest flow aloft late next week into
next weekend. Depending on how far east the upper ridge over the
Western CONUS builds and how deep the Eastern CONUS trough digs,
there is a 30% chance an unsettled weather pattern returns, or
even continues, into next weekend.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion:
/Saturday Through The Upcoming Week/

An unsettled pattern will continue through the upcoming weekend,
with convective activity mainly concentrated along two regions
across our area. The first of which will be along our western
counties as dryline convection continues to propagate to the east
overnight, with the second being along the Red River and across
North Texas through the morning hours on both Saturday and Sunday.

Additional convection will push through portions of the region
once again through the start of next week as the pattern will
remain largely unchanged. With several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms moving through overnight into the morning hours each
day, strong to severe weather will be possible. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threats, with a very low chance
for tornadoes. Of course, these specific hazards will depend on a
variety of factors. Placement of surface boundaries and outflow
boundary interactions will largely influence the extent and
coverage of any severe weather. These features will be closely
monitored each day as real-time analysis and high-res model
guidance allow us to get a much better handle on potential hazards
through the upcoming days. Conversely, it is also possible that
mesoscale interactions lessen the severe threat - such as is the
case with outflow dominant, multi-cell thunderstorms that lack a
substantially strong cold pool. It`s difficult to nail these
specific mesoscale phenomena several days out, which only adds to
the emphasis to continue to remain weather aware through the next
several days as details can be further refined and the forecast
gains additional value. Furthermore, the threat for additional
flooding will remain in place through the start of next week as
well as heavy rainfall will be possible at times. It won`t take
much to cause issues, so stay on your feet for additional flooding.

A potential pattern shift may be on the horizon, which would
lessen our chances for showers and thunderstorms considerably.
This would also lead to an increase in afternoon highs, with
temperatures gradually climbing through the end of next week. This
is the direct result of the mid level ridge currently located
across our west strengthening and pushing more into the
Central/Southern Plains. This will effectively cut off the
unsettled pattern that we`ve been in as of late, or at least slow
it down considerably. Our attention will begin to turn toward the
potential heat, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and
dewpoints lingering in the low to mid 70s. This could result in
heat indices reaching between 100 to 105 through the end of the
week, which may begin to cause issues related to heat illness.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 204 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

The current cluster of storms moving across the D10 terminals will
largely consist of stratiform-region rain with embedded storms for
the next hour or so. Another broken line of stronger storms should
approach D10 around 08-09Z and move east after 09-10Z. For ACT,
off and on storms should continue to produce moderate to heavy
rain for the next couple hours. A line of storms with gusty
northwest winds and heavy rain will move through around 11Z and
move east after 13-14Z.

Yet ANOTHER cluster of storms is expected to develop well to our
west early this morning and move across the region in the mid-
morning to early-afternoon. We are not very confident of where
this cluster will develop, what time it will move across the
region, or even if it will develop at all. Therefore, we have
introduced VCTS from 15-19Z for the D10 TAFs and -SHRA at ACT, but
this will likely need updating with future TAFs as confidence
(hopefully) grows.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  69  86  73  88 /  40  20  30  20  30
Waco                81  69  84  73  87 /  70  20  40  10  30
Paris               80  66  85  69  85 /  90  30  30  20  30
Denton              81  66  86  70  87 /  40  20  30  20  30
McKinney            80  67  85  71  87 /  50  20  30  20  30
Dallas              82  70  87  73  89 /  40  20  30  20  30
Terrell             81  67  85  72  87 /  70  30  40  20  30
Corsicana           82  69  86  74  89 /  80  30  50  10  30
Temple              81  70  85  73  89 /  60  20  40  10  30
Mineral Wells       80  66  86  71  87 /  50  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-
129>135-144>148-159>162-175.

&&

$$