287
FXUS64 KOUN 041836
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
136 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Main short term focus will storms late this afternoon into the
overnight period, bringing both severe and flooding hazards.

Storms are expected to initiate near a cold front / dryline triple
point in west-central Oklahoma, then expand south and eastward
through the evening. Continued moisture return and at least some
diurnal warming will result in a highly unstable environment; this
combined with adequate deep layer shear (~30 knots 0-6 km bulk
shear) will result in an initial large to very large hail risk. Any
discrete storms along the front will also have a low tornado risk.

Low level shear will initially be low, ramping up with the low level
jet around 00-02z. As storms form into a complex this evening
(transitioning to a heavy rain and damaging wind threat), this will
support MCS maintenance down through south central Oklahoma. This
complex will likely take a similar path to last night`s complex,
hitting areas that are already plenty saturated (1 and 3 hr flash
flood guidance ranges from less than an inch to 2 inches through
this area). Thus, a flood watch will be issued for parts of central
and south central Oklahoma for tonight.

Storms should exit the area by around 4am.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

With the passage of Tuesday`s cold front, most of the moisture
should be pushed out allowing for a couple of dry days in the
forecast.

Ridging will impinge from the southwest late this week, though that
won`t completely keep out the possibility of northwest flow. Low
rain chances (20-30%) return Thursday night and continue through
early next week, mainly during the overnight periods (it`s MCS
season).

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

MVFR ceilings and some lower visibility will remain possible this
morning and may linger into the afternoon wrt ceilings. Isolated
storms this morning should remain outside the TAF sites. More
storms expected to develop across north-central into central
Oklahoma late this afternoon and then traversing south/southeast
this evening and overnight. South winds will shift to the north
behind a front that will enter northwest Oklahoma later this
morning and move through all but DUA by this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  88  68  93 /  60   0   0  10
Hobart OK         69  93  68  97 /  20   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  70  91  68  96 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           63  93  68  94 /  10   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     65  89  65  88 /  60   0   0  10
Durant OK         70  88  66  93 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning
     for OKZ025>032-040>043-047-048-051-052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30