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000
FXUS64 KOUN 240450
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING...DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
CURRENTLY...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PERSIST. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING...SOME
LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING...DECIDED NOT TO MENTION IT FOR
THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS

DISCUSSION...
VERY TRICKY FORECAST THIS EVENING...WITH A MYRIAD OF BOUNDARIES
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 60S ACROSS OK
AND THE TEXOMA REGION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...A ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WRN OK AND WRN N TX...THE WEATHER REMAINS RELATIVELY
QUIET...HOWEVER A WEAK UPDRAFT DEVELOPED OVER COMANCHE COUNTY NEAR
LAWTON...BUT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE INITIAL WEST
TEXAS LINE OF CONVECTION. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS STRUGGLING IN
THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE LUB CWA...THESE UPDRAFTS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE BUT MAY MAKE THERE WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WRN N TX...
AND REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N TX...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OF WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  77  63  81 /  30  40  30  20
HOBART OK         64  84  64  84 /  60  40  40  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  88  66  88 /  50  30  50  30
GAGE OK           59  80  62  84 /  50  30  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     58  75  62  83 /  70  30  20  30
DURANT OK         65  82  63  84 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$