Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 281118
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
518 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR NEAR KOKC...KOUN...KSPS...KLAW...AND KPNC BEFORE
16Z AND AFTER 23Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

TODAY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR UNDER SUNNY SKIES. WINDS
WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS. USED A
BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS WITH A SLIGHT PREFERENCE TOWARDS
THE WARMER NUMBERS DUE TO PLENTY OF SUN.

SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH MANY LOCATIONS RISING INTO
THE 70S. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY. MAY BE NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...THOUGH MAY ARRIVE IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AROUND BY LATE MORNING AND MOVE THROUGH DURANT BY 6 AM
MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON SUNDAY MAY
BE TRICKY DUE TO FRONTAL POSITION WITH A STRONG GRADIENT NEAR THE
FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES MAY SOAR INTO THE 70S TO
NEAR 80. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THINKING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE QUITE STRONG. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE A BRISK ONE.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS NEAR OR
JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MAINLY EAST
OF I-35. KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY EAST OF A
MADILL TO ADA TO SEMINOLE LINE. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT AS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE VERY SHALLOW. PRECIPITATION
TYPES COULD BE NEARLY ANYTHING BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY EAST OF I-35.
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE MAY INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD.

MBS

FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY CONDITIONS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
SEEM UNLIKELY AS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED WHERE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE HIGHEST. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  45  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         68  43  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73  38  76  35 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  42  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         66  50  74  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17



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