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000
FXUS64 KOUN 100529
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1129 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS MOVING EAST FROM THE PANHANDLES COULD DESCEND
TO A HIGH MVFR LEVEL BY LATE MORNING /BEST CHANCE AT KGAG/...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS POSSIBILITY IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE WAS LOCATED ALONG TEXAS PANHANDLE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BORDER THIS EVENING. AFTER A GUSTY AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE DROPPED
TO AT OR BELOW 5 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH WILL SLIP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE ADVANCING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LOCALLY-RUN 4 KM WRF
MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND BRINGS THICKER
CLOUDS TO NEAR WOODWARD...EL RENO...MARIETTA LINE BY 09Z. THE
PROGRESS OF THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A MAJOR INFLUENCE ON HOW COLD
TEMPERATURES CAN GET TONIGHT UNDER WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD BE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE KEPT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR PREVIOUS VALUES OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...BUT LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR LONGEST. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST.

QUICK LOOK AT NEW NAM SHOWS TONIGHT`S RUN REMAINS GENERALLY
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN...THOUGH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY SLOWER.
PATH OF UPPER SYSTEM IS STILL WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUGGESTING
AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS ON OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SMALL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALL SITES
EXCEPT PNC WILL SEE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/

DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA CURRENTLY CONTINUES TO
SPIN OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND DIG TO THE SOUTH. THE
NUMERIC MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FARTHER
SOUTH WITH CURRENT NAM AND GFS MOVING THE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK PREDICTED... POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AS THE
PRIMARY AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD STILL APPEARS TO
BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND IS STILL WORTH KEEPING SOME
HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE PACKAGE IN THE SOUTH. LOW-LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO KEEP A EAST-NORTHEAST COMPONENT IN THE
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WHICH WILL HAMPER THE
RETURN OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE... SO AT THIS TIME TO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW AMOUNTS.

AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM... ANOTHER STRONG MID-LEVEL
VORTEX MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL OF THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH... ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MAINLY REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  19  35  27  40 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         20  37  25  36 /   0   0  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  25  42  30  39 /   0  10  20  50
GAGE OK           15  36  25  41 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     12  34  25  39 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         24  43  30  39 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

16/03/03
TAYLOR