Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 130447
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1047 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.AVIATION...
TAFS 1306/1406...

A south to southwest wind will prevail through 12-18Z.
Thereafter, a wind shift will occur at all sites as
a cold front moves across Oklahoma and north Texas.
The wind shift is expected to occur across northwestern
Oklahoma shortly after 12Z and reach OKC/OUN around 17-18Z.
A brief period of southwest to west winds will occur
before the frontal passage. VFR conditions are expected
through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 851 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

UPDATE...
Temperatures have fallen quickly this evening. However with
southwest surface winds that may increase slightly overnight,
temperatures may level off or even rise in some locations
overnight. Have made some minor tweaks to lows with this in mind,
otherwise no other changes expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 614 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

AVIATION...
TAFS 1300/1324...

A weak cold front will bring a wind shift to all
TAF sites on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, a light
to moderate southwest wind will prevail.  The front
will enter northwestern Oklahoma shortly after 12z
and will clear SPS/LAW around 18-20Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather continues to be the primary forecast focus this week.

Cooler and less breezy than yesterday, Tuesday has remained calm,
with afternoon temperatures slowly creeping into the lower 50s
through 2 PM. The surface high will gradually slip southeastward
through the evening and overnight with light winds shifting to the
south/southwest through late tonight through early morning,
Wednesday.

A weak surface trough will approach through the morning hours,
Wednesday, with winds shifting to the west to northwest through the
day. Similar to Monday, winds will increase, especially across
northern and northwestern Oklahoma through the afternoon.
Temperatures will also be warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 60s
and lower 70s along the Red River Valley. In response, elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions will exist across most of
western Oklahoma into western north Texas. Will hold off on any fire
weather watch at this time, with northwestern Oklahoma being the
only consideration given winds, but confidence in reaching Red Flag
Criteria is not great enough given current data to issue a watch.

Latest mid range guidance has come in more bullish with the 500mb
pattern, both the GFS and ECMWF. A stronger 500mb trough is now
progged to dig south/southeast across the southern plains, with it`s
axis from the Mid-Missouri Valley to the Trans Pecos by Thursday
evening. This will usher in cooler temperatures, Thursday, with
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Friday will be slightly warmer
as high pressure sets in through the afternoon, with increasing
south and southwesterly flow into Saturday ahead of the primary
500mb trough moving across the western United States. This will
result in warmer and windier conditions, with another increase of
fire weather conditions to near critical to critical in some places,
primarily across western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Additionally, latest long range solutions have finally introduced
precipitation, primarily across eastern Oklahoma. Location and
duration will depend on the speed/track/strength of the trough.
However, right now, it`s looking like central and western Oklahoma
and western north Texas will remain dry through the weekend.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  33  64  36  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         31  66  35  51 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  33  69  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           31  64  35  49 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     30  61  33  47 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         34  70  37  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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