Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 190346
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AFTER 01Z.

MBS

&&


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
CLOUDS COMING IN THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS COULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. HOWEVER IF
CLOUDS THIN AND/OR CLEAR TEMPS COULD STILL DROP SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT NORTHWEST
OF KLAW-KOKC.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...MAKING FOR A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND HAIL AND WIND ARE THE ONLY
EXPECTED HAZARDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE VERY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
DANGER WILL ALSO BECOME HEIGHTENED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA. WHILE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME SEVERE THREAT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF TIMING/LOCATION
AND SUFFICIENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU UNTIL
MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  77  58  79 /   0   0  20  40
HOBART OK         52  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  79  60  81 /   0   0  20  40
GAGE OK           53  78  58  80 /   0  10  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     50  79  57  78 /   0   0  10  40
DURANT OK         50  76  56  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



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