Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 290436 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1136 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016
.AVIATION...29/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
Tricky aviation forecast ahead. Expect VFR conditions to prevail,
at least through the morning hours for most sites. Scattered thunderstorms
will continue across western north Texas and slowly lift northward
into far southwestern Oklahoma through the evening. In the early
morning, some light fog may develop across portions of central and
northwestern Oklahoma, impacting KOKC/KOUN/KGAG/KWWR. At the same
time, expect MVFR ceilings to gradually increase from the
northwest, with scattered thunderstorm chances increasing through
the morning into the afternoon across much of the region.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 728 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
Made some minor adjustments to POPS tonight and tomorrow morning.
Convection has started a bit earlier than most of the Hi Res
models have, so we may see some isolated rain and thunder in
western north Texas before sunset. Overnight and into tomorrow
morning, confidence is low for showers and storms, especially as
Hi Res models show little to no convection. Kept some 30s in the
northwest where the NAM is more aggressive with precipitation.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
AVIATION...29/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the
first six hours of the period. Increasing cloud cover will develop
overnight, from west to east across the region, as a weak upper
level low pressure system moves in from the west. Scattered
thunderstorms may develop through the morning hours; most likely
impacting airfields across portions of western Oklahoma and as far
south as the Red River. In response, ceilings and visibility will
decrease, most likely to MVFR, with periods of IFR possible.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
Heavy rain potential will be the main impact the next several
days...culminating Tuesday into Wednesday with strong frontal
intrusion and cooler/drier weather thereafter. Two areas to watch
this evening and tonight will be potential for storms to form well
to our southwest and on the high plains of eastern New Mexico.
Both areas...or remnants of...could affect western north Texas and
Oklahoma overnight and Sunday. With moisture return and low
amplitude southern stream s/wvs tomorrow into Monday/Tuesday,
relatively high pops will continue with in the forecast with
daily thunderstorm/MCS activity likely. there are fairly diverse
solutions on details of timing and location of this thunderstorm
activity. this diversity will preclude a flood watch with this
issuance but highest rainfall amounts appear to be most likely
over the southern portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas.
This will be approached each shift and when better consistency in
model output and confidence increases, watches may be issued. with
all of that being said...most widespread and heavy rainfall will
likely be seen Tuesday into Wednesday with slow frontal passage.
Severe weather likely accompany this activity.
Severe weather potential appears to be increasing for Sunday and
Sunday night with possible MCS intrusion across mainly western
Oklahoma. Although some guidance suggest an early timing,
westward extension of dryline and need for diurnal heating to help
with initiation, current thinking is that it will be mainly an
evening and overnight event for much of the CWA.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 65 83 65 82 / 20 40 40 40
Hobart OK 65 84 64 83 / 20 50 60 40
Wichita Falls TX 67 86 65 84 / 30 40 60 30
Gage OK 61 82 61 82 / 20 60 40 30
Ponca City OK 63 83 64 81 / 10 50 30 50
Durant OK 68 85 67 83 / 20 20 40 30