Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 211136
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE EARLY IN THE PD. LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICNITY OF WEAK
SURFACE FROM SW CRNR OF OK NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDEPSREAD RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH LOW
ALREADY COVERING CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AND SPREADING INTO THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...ESP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW INTO
NCNTRL OK. CONTINUED ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. UPPER
LOW OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING FAR SW TX BY SAT MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SW PARTS OF THE FA AIDED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. UPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INTO SCNTRL/SE OK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM SW TX TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DROPS QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED AND PERIODIC WEAK COLD
FRONTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  52  62  51 /  30  60  80  40
HOBART OK         56  46  62  47 /  10  50  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  55  64  48 /  10  80  90  30
GAGE OK           52  38  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  47  62  51 /  50  50  60  40
DURANT OK         64  55  62  52 /  30  70 100  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02



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