300
FXUS64 KOUN 031134
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
634 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Complex, low confidence forecast continues today.

Still appears that a complex of storms will slide south out of
Kansas into northern Oklahoma around sunrise and then translate
south/southeast through the morning hours. Some severe will be
possible with this activity. This activity will also likely produce
an outflow boundary that will act as a focus for additional
convective development as we approach midday or early afternoon.
Exactly where this boundary will be is a tough question to answer,
but could be somewhere from east-central or southeast into central
then back northwest into northern Oklahoma. Abundant instability
will be in place by this time for any storm that does develop to be
severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts. Heavy rainfall will
also be a concern as precipitable water remain high.

Models also continue to show scattered afternoon activity farther
west, near the dryline as well. More concentrated late today and
evening convection may develop across northern Oklahoma, which then
moves south/southeast across portions of central into southeast
Oklahoma Monday night.

Otherwise, expected precip and cloud cover to keep temps a few
degrees cooler today, much like yesterday, than what was expected a
day or two ago. However, out west, where more insolation may occur,
afternoon temps may climb well into the 90s this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

May catch a break for much of the day on Tuesday with regards to
storms. However, a shortwave trough will move through the northern
and central Plains during the day and the associated surface front
will move south toward the area late in the day and Tuesday night.
Storms along this boundary to our north during the day will develop
further south, into Oklahoma by Tuesday evening. Main impacts will
be across the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma. This activity will
move out of southeast Oklahoma by early Wednesday morning.

In the wake of this system, mid-level ridging will build into the
Plains for mid/late week which should limit overall rain chances and
temperatures will rise. However we will be on the fringe of
northwest flow and models do depict a surface front working south
into the area. Models do differ with regards to potential impacts
and timing of these impacts. GFS becomes more aggressive with rain
chances Thursday and Friday near this boundary, where the ECMWF has
a bit more dominate ridge and washes this boundary out with another
dropping south into the area by late in the weekend. ECMWF develops
more precip with this second front, keeping the late week period
much warmer and drier than the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Scattered thunderstorms that developed over central Oklahoma
several hours ago, are now approaching the DUA site and will
bring a chance of storms through 13-14z. Elsewhere, a line of
strong to potential severe storms is moving across far northwest
Oklahoma. This convection is expected to move across most
terminals through the morning/early afternoon. The exception may
be LAW and SPS. By late afternoon, additional thunderstorms, some
severe, may form along an outflow boundary in western Oklahoma,
but coverage of storms should be limited.

Low clouds with MVFR ceilings should redevelop late this
evening and overnight, especially across southern and central
Oklahoma.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  86  69  91  70 /  70  40  10  50
Hobart OK         93  68  97  68 /  50  20   0  30
Wichita Falls TX  93  71  97  72 /  20  20   0  20
Gage OK           92  65  94  64 /  80  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     84  67  88  66 /  90  30  20  60
Durant OK         86  70  89  73 /  50  30   0  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06