Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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341 FXUS64 KOUN 021736 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER... Issued at 1059 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Near-term forecast has undergone some complications this morning. Convection across the eastern Texas panhandle, rather than dying out, has intensified and begun propagating eastward across the Red River Valley of southwest Oklahoma. The likely culprit appears to be two-fold - first, a surge of greater boundary layer moisture with dewpoints in the low 70s in southern Oklahoma; and secondly, the development of an MCV from the panhandle storms to aid in forcing for convection to develop. While no convection-allowing models have handled this turn of events well, short-range guidance shows MLCAPE increasing from 1,500-2,000 J/kg this morning to nearly 4,000 J/kg (almost certainly overdone thanks to widespread anvil shading in reality, but still a signal of the increasing moisture/lapse rates aloft) by noon. The ongoing storms will continue to propagate eastward along the developing MCV throughout the rest of the morning and into early this afternoon. The severe risk will be on the sporadic side due to the weak nature of overall deep-layer shear. Still, hail to the size of quarters, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, frequent cloud-to- ground lightning, and heavy rainfall will all be possible with this activity as it approaches I-35 along and south of I-40. It`s possible the activity will begin to weaken this afternoon as it approaches southeast Oklahoma. Then our eyes will turn to potential next rounds of severe weather. Meister && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 The next chance for storms after this early round won`t wait long, as another round of convection is expected to work in this evening from the Texas panhandle. Some questions exist about how much of our area will experience storms this evening due to the steady push of outflow southward into western north Texas. However, West Texas Mesonet obs show winds north of the boundary from the east and winds south of the boundary from the south - an indication that perhaps the boundary is stalling or "washing out". Dewpoints have dropped to near 60 on the north side, but it is June so we will have to monitor for evapotranspirative recovery in western Oklahoma. For now, the greatest risk for storms this afternoon will be in western north Texas along and south of the outflow boundary. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially if storms can attain a more supercellular structure and remain close to the boundary. This evening, activity will approach western Oklahoma and western north Texas from the Texas panhandle after firing off of the dryline. Uncertainty is extremely high given the current presence of the cold pool/stable air. However, the low-level jet will be active this evening, which lends some concern to the notion that we could re-destabilize this evening in advance of another MCS. Trends will be watched closely. Believe it or not, there is actually a signal for yet another MCS this evening to come southeastward out of Kansas. This one might be impacting our area late tonight through daybreak tomorrow. Beyond that, there is so much mesoscale uncertainty that it just bears waiting to see what will happen. Meister && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 May have a triple point to play with Monday afternoon across northwest Oklahoma with a weak surface low connecting both the weak front across Kansas and a dryline that will be located across western Oklahoma. Storms may form by afternoon near this intersection and then expand east and southeast into central and then eastern Oklahoma by evening. Surface boundary will still be in place as we go through the day Tuesday, along with the dryline and may see more isolated development along these boundaries Tuesday afternoon and evening from central into northeast Oklahoma. Does appear to be some upper support as trailing end of shortwave trough traverses the area. By the middle of the week mid-level ridge builds east out of the Rockies into the Plains as large upper low moves through the Great Lakes region. This will initially bring warmer temps to the area with most of Oklahoma and north Texas warming into the 90s with only minimal rain chances. We also remain on the fringe of northwest flow and by late in the week models bring another surface front south into the area, which may bring slightly cooler air and at least some additional rain chances for the end of the week into the following weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Low clouds have developed across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas this morning with mainly VFR to near MVFR ceilings. Thunderstorms are moving across far northwest Oklahoma so have added a mention of TSRA at WWR through about 14Z. A breezy southerly wind will develop at all sites this morning and continue through the afternoon. Thunderstorms may develop across West Texas this afternoon and move into western and central Oklahoma after 00Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 68 85 71 92 / 40 50 20 10 Hobart OK 67 93 69 97 / 40 20 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 69 91 73 96 / 40 20 10 0 Gage OK 65 93 66 97 / 40 20 10 10 Ponca City OK 68 84 69 89 / 40 50 30 20 Durant OK 69 86 72 89 / 40 40 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...06