833
FXUS64 KOUN 052337
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
637 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The rest of today and tonight will remain mostly clear and
seasonable, with light winds becoming southerly.

Tomorrow, another cold front will enter northern Oklahoma, gradually
sinking southward through the day. With the southerly flow ahead of
the front, models suggest moisture pooling along the front resulting
in elevated PWATs. CAMs (particularly the HRRR) suggest some
isolated to widely scattered storms developing along the front in
western / southwestern Oklahoma during the afternoon. Daytime
heating should help erode any capping, though height rises through
the day suggest a lack of upper level support. Instability and shear
will support strong to marginally severe storms.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Rain chances over the weekend have come up a tad as models are now
showing a few shortwaves moving through the northwest flow. Right
now, Saturday and Sunday nights stand out as showing the highest
chances for rain (30-50%).

Models diverge on the upper flow pattern for early next week. A
deeper wave is supposed to move around the Great Lakes low pressure
system, but models differ on timing, depth, and proximity to our
forecast area. For now, we continue to maintain low PoPs through
this period (20-30%).

Mid to late week, it does appear the ridge finally starts to build
in, though ensemble cluster analysis does show that some solutions
continue zonal or northwest flow.

Temperatures peak on Saturday (90s with a few 100s), followed by
slightly cooler temperatures next week after a cold front Saturday
night (80s and 90s).

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected for most terminals through
the TAF period. Winds will gradually veer to the south to south-
southwest ahead of a northerly wind shift that will enter
northwest Oklahoma tomorrow morning. This wind shift will slowly
move southward and is forecast to be near KCSM to KOKC by mid-
afternoon.

There is a 20 to 30% chance that thunderstorms may develop along
the wind shift across west central into central Oklahoma after 20
UTC. PROB30s were included at KCSM to KOKC/KOUN, southward to
KLAW to account for this probability. Any thunderstorms could be
strong to severe with gusty winds (50 knots or higher) and large
hail (1" or larger) along with a brief reduction in visibility

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  93  66  88 /  10  20  20  10
Hobart OK         68  97  68  93 /   0  30  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  67  97  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
Gage OK           68  90  65  93 /   0  10  20  20
Ponca City OK     65  87  63  88 /  10  10  10  10
Durant OK         65  93  68  90 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...10