158
FXUS64 KSJT 041128
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
628 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Temperatures will be well above normal for much of West Central
Texas today, as an 850 mb thermal ridge continues to build over our
area. West/southwest winds at the surface will bring hot,
downsloping air into West Central Texas. The dry line will push east
into our area this afternoon. Temperatures to the west of the dry
line are forecast to be in the 103 to 107 range. Temperatures will
be a bit cooler to the east of the dry line, but moisture will be
much higher, and heat indices could reach to near 108 in our
southeastern counties. A Heat Advisory has been issued for counties
south of the Big Country. This is not to say that the Big Country
won`t be hot today, because it definitely will be (record breaking
to be exact), but it`s looking like it will sit right below Advisory
thresholds or only hit it for a short period of time. The forecast
high today in Abilene is 3 degrees higher than the record for this
date (101 set in 2013). The forecast high in San Angelo is
equivalent to the record for this date (107 set in 1916). So we
could see another record breaking day today.

Precipitation chances will remain low today. Strong storms are
expected to our east/northeast this evening. There is a small chance
the storms could clip the northern Big Country, but storms don`t
look likely right now. We could see an boundary push through late
this evening and overnight, bringing gusty north winds for a few
hours after its passage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A generally hot and dry, but typical, pattern is in store for the
over west central Texas for the Wednesday through Sunday timeframe.
A 590 dam height ridge at the mid-levels will begin to set up over
New Mexico and far west Texas on Wednesday and persist through at
least Friday. West central Texas will be on the east side of this
ridge and shortwaves embedded in northwest flow aloft may help to
generate thunderstorm chances for the Big Country on Wednesday and
Friday.  A weak cold front should dip as far south as the Concho
Valley on Wednesday and could hold high temperatures down into the
mid 90s.  In the same token, cold pooling from thunderstorms over
southwest Oklahoma and north Texas on Friday could also provide some
relief from the heat. However, this will fully depend on how
mesoscale features develop that day. Otherwise, high temperatures
will be in the upper 90s to around 100 through Saturday.

Looking ahead to Sunday through early next week, global models show
a closed upper low near Baja California getting absorbed into a
deepening trough over the West Coast.  This would allow the mid-
level ridge to begin to break down over the central US.  Chances for
showers and thunderstorms should increase during this time period,
especially as a stronger front comes through on Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Low clouds and MVFR ceilings are present across our southeastern
counties, including KBBD and KJCT. Low clouds will lift over the
next couple of hours, leaving VFR conditiions for the rest of the
day. Gusty southwest winds are expected for much of the afternoon.
Winds should start to decrease after sunset. We could however see
an outflow boundary or two from storms to our east, which could
cause quick wind shifts and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    104  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 107  74 102  73 /   0   0  10  10
Junction   103  76 102  73 /  10   0  10  10
Brownwood   98  73  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater 103  71  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona      103  73 102  73 /   0   0  10  10
Brady      100  74  96  72 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for Brown-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Irion-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Sterling-Sutton-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...AP