Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 171144
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
644 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Isolated showers continue to move across the area early this
morning near the KABI terminal. Farther south, MVFR to LIFR CIGS
are beginning to affect our southern terminals. KBBD has a ceiling
of less than 500 feet, and KJCT has intermittently had an MVFR CIG
of of less than 3000 feet. Although low clouds haven`t yet fully
moved into KSOA and KJCT, observations sites south of these
locations have seen low clouds begin to affect them in the last
couple hours, so we are still expecting to see some of these low
clouds continue moving north into our southern sites, so will have
a TEMPO for low clouds through the first few hours at KJCT and
KSOA. Will keep only the SCT group at KSJT as low clouds likely
won`t be able to make progress that far north. Although we have
scattered TSRA and SHRA in the forecast, the areal coverage is
likely not going to be enough to warrant more than a mention of
VCTS or VCSH in area TAFs. Winds will remain light throughout the
forecast period. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Wed SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The forecast will continue to be warm and humid, with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Tropical Storm Odile,
which is currently slowly moving northeast across the Gulf of
California into northwest Mexico. Tropical moisture also continues
to move across Texas due to the storm. Shortwave trough energy will
move southeast across Texas today away from the storm. This energy,
combining with a very moist and unstable atmosphere will likely
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms again today. Models
agree that the track of this energy will be southeast across the Big
Country, so have the highest PoPs across areas generally north of a
Sterling City to Brownwood line, but have chance PoPs everywhere.
Overnight, will keep precipitation chances going, and have the best
chances indicated in our southeastern counties following the path of
shortwave trough energy. Some of these showers and storms could
produce heavy rainfall with moisture content much higher than normal
at this time, and considering that most of the activity will likely
have slow storm motions as well.

As far as temperatures go, have warmed highs today closer to what
we saw Tuesday as conditions will not be much different, and we
should see enough breaks in cloud cover to warm into the upper 80s
to near 90 degrees again today. Overnight lows will be around 70
degrees.

20

LONG TERM...
(Thursday into Tuesday)

Not much change to the prior forecast where remnants of Odile are
expected to move northeast across New Mexico on Thursday and into
the northern part of the Texas Panhandle on Friday. The forecast
area will be under a southwest flow aloft through Friday where
periodic disturbances will track over rich tropical moisture
complements of the remains Odile. Bands of showers and thunderstorms
are expected to move eastward into West Central Texas during this
period. Precipitable water amounts of nearly 2 inches will keep the
potential for locally heavy rainfall for the forecast area,
especially during the afternoon hours.

A cold front is still expected to move through the CWA on Sunday.
This will continue the possibility for localized flooding over West
Central Texas through Sunday night. Models are divergent Monday and
Tuesday with the GFS keeping rainfall in the forecast and the ECMWF
with drying conditions. Will keep the forecast dry for Monday and
Tuesday while awaiting future model runs.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  88  71  83  69  85 /  50  40  50  40  50
San Angelo  89  71  86  70  87 /  30  40  50  30  40
Junction  90  72  86  71  88 /  30  40  40  30  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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