Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 050048
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
648 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.EVENING UPDATE...

Early this evening the upper low is located just south of the Big
Bend region of Texas and is continuing to move to the northeast.
By daybreak the center of the upper low will be crossing over the
middle Rio Grande Valley and should be approaching our
southeastern counties by noon. Have updated precipitation chances
given the movement of the upper low and the shower activity
experienced over the last several hours. Areas north of the
Interstate 20 corridor are not expected to see any shower
activity for the remainder of the evening and through the
overnight hours. The best chance for meaningful rainfall through
tonight will be along the Interstate 10 corridor with lesser
amounts expected between the I-10 and I-20 corridors.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 541 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Main impacts tonight will be CIGs and VIS approaching IFR and
possibly LIFR conditions. Currently, CIGs and VIS are MVFR at all
TAF sites and light rain is falling at KSOA and KJCT. CIGs should
become IFR through this evening and overnight as light rain
continues to move northeast into the area. VIS will vary between
IFR and MVFR through tonight. LIFR CIGs are possible at KSOA
tonight. In addition to the light rain, a few tstorms at KJCT are
possible tonight and tomorrow morning. Have not mentioned them in
this package yet, but beware. Winds may be gusty and variable near
these storms and VIS will be quite low in the heavy rain.

Look for improvement towards the end of this TAF period as the
upper low exits to the northeast and low level west winds filter
into the area.

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1215 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

UPDATE...

The regional radar mosaic indicating that West Central Texas is
remaining dry early this afternoon. Updated grids and zones to
trim Pops down. Going with a dry forecast across the Big Country,
to chance Pops across Concho Valley and much of the Heartland.
Will continue the likely Pops along the I-10 corridor, as some
light rain may move in by late this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1131 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours
as a moist low level airmass remains in place across West Central
Texas. However, a few hours of VFR are possible at the KABI
terminal late this afternoon and evening. Models are indicating
showers moving back north across southern half of the area late
this afternoon and tonight. The winds will be north at around 10
knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 536 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR ceilings this morning will rise to MVFR by noon at KABI and
KSJT. KABI will likely see VFR conditions mid afternoon. Southern
terminals, including KJCT and KSOA may rise to MVFR temporarily,
but kept ceilings IFR as a band of showers moves in, with
ceilings and visibilities varying between IFR and MVFR. The
showers should spread north to KSJT and KBBD by 00Z Monday. An
isolated thunderstorm is possible with the late afternoon and
overnight showers, put potential is too low to include in the
TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 457 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(time period)

An upper low over northern Mexico will move northeast toward the Big
Bend area tonight, bringing West Central Texas into an area of upper
level divergence and potential rainfall. The best rainfall will be
south of the Big Country.

This morning, rainfall amounts will be light, with southeastern
sections, east of San Angelo to Sonora line, having the best chance
of measurable rainfall. As the upper low approaches, however,
heavier rainfall will spread north into the I-10 corridor this
afternoon, possibly reaching San Angelo late. Tonight, the heavier
rainfall will likely spread northward into the Concho Valley and
Brownwood areas.  Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are possible
with locally heavy amounts of 2 inches along the I-10 corridor.
Again, the Big Country will likely miss out on the heavier rain. The
main impact will be street flooding as the rainfall should be
spread over several hours.

Cool and cloudy skies will otherwise continue with highs around 50
this afternoon and lows in the lower 40s tonight. North to northeast
winds of 10 to 15 mph will decrease to 5 to 10 mph tonight as the
center of surface high pressure builds over the region.

LONG TERM...
(Monday)

Rain Chances Linger...

As the upper low moves across Texas, from west to east and just
south of or across our southern counties, rain will end Monday.
The NAM solution is very close to the ECMWF, and both bring the
center of the upper low across the southern extent of our
Heartland counties. The GFS takes to low`s center nearly east, and
it just misses our Heartland counties. The GFS ends QPF over our
eastern counties by 00Z; the other two models continue some QPF
into Monday night. The general consensus is to end weather at 00Z;
so, will maintain that scenario. Highs on Monday may be a little
warmer than today, with numbers in the lower to mid 50s likely.

(Monday night through Saturday)

Dry and Unseasonably Cold...

The remainder of the longer term remains dry, with temperatures
mainly below seasonal normals. Another cold front will sweep
across West central Texas late Monday night into Tuesday. This
front will have limited impact on temperatures; however, it will
set the stage for another colder front on Wednesday. Wednesday`s
front will bring gusty winds from the north and a cold blast of
Polar air. Temperatures, post front, will likely be the coldest
so far, with highs Thursday mainly around 40 and highs Friday
mainly in the mid to upper 40s. Lows will be cold, especially
Wednesday night and Thursday night, when numbers mainly in the mid
20s look likely. For Saturday, surface winds from the south will
help initiate a warming trend and produce highs closer to seasonal
normals, mainly in the mid 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  40  53  40  53 /  40  50   5   5
San Angelo  40  55  42  58 /  70  50   0   0
Junction  43  54  41  64 /  90  80   0   0
Brownwood  42  52  41  57 /  70  90   5   5
Sweetwater  39  53  41  52 /  30  40   5   5
Ozona       41  56  40  64 /  80  60   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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