Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 072346
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
646 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2015


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for very challenging flight weather conditions for the next
24 hours. Thunderstorms or MVFR ceilings will dominate much of
West Central Texas for the next 24 hours. Expect some showers and
all thunderstorms to produce heavy rainfall, which will likely
reduce the visibility to less than one mile.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

With the ongoing weather, discussion will be short. Shortwave
pushing into the area along with abundant low level moisture will
set the stage for heavy rainfall. A slow moving cold front is draped
along the western border of the Concho Valley and Big Country, or
roughly from Fort Stockton to Sweetwater to Wichita Falls at 3 PM.
Boundary is acting a focus for new convective developing which has
brought heavy rainfall to San Angelo since 2 PM. The storms are
drifting north while the boundary drifts south, which means the
storms are not moving very much at all and will continue to bring
heavy rainfall to the Concho Valley and eventually back into the
northern Heartland through this evening. Have brought the Flash
Flood Watch a row of counties farther south to include San Angelo
and Brownwood, and have increased PoPs to match. Unusually high
PWAT`s will make for fairly efficient rain producers and the
threat of flash flooding will continue until the system can finally
exit to the east on Wednesday.

07

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)

.Dry and warmer weather expected into next week...

An upper level high over the southeastern states Wednesday night
will migrate westward into the Southern Plains through this
coming weekend, resulting in an upper ridge dominating the
central CONUS. This scenario will portend dry weather and warming
afternoon highs for the forecast area. Afternoon highs in the
lower 90s Thursday will warm into the mid to upper 90s by the
beginning of next week. Morning lows will be in the upper 60s to
the lower 70s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  89  72  91  71 /  80  40  10   5   5
San Angelo  70  91  72  91  70 /  80  20   5   5   0
Junction  72  90  72  91  71 /  30  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Fisher...
Haskell...Irion...Jones...Nolan...Runnels...Shackelford...
Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$






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