444
FXUS64 KSJT 151120
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
620 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Skies are clear to start off the day as a mid-level ridge was
located over the southern Plains.  Southerly flow has increased in
the boundary layer thanks to the low-level jet. Low pressure will
develop across eastern New Mexico and west Texas through the day,
which should cause southerly flow to continue increasing with gusts
over 25 MPH this afternoon.  Temperatures this afternoon should
reach the low to mid 90s once again.  Unlike yesterday, instability
looks a bit more meager south of I-20 with much more of a cap in
place in the low-levels.  Nevertheless, SPC is carrying a Marginal
Risk for this area again today for isolated thunderstorms that could
produce gusty winds, so PoPs of 10 to 15 percent were included here.
Conditions look more favorable for thunderstorm development along
and north of I-20, where instability is higher and a mid-level
impulse will pass through the area late this afternoon. Therefore,
we have gone with higher chance PoPs in this area especially this
evening.  Shower and thunderstorm coverage looks to increase
overnight for this area as the LLJ picks up again.  Cloud cover
should also increase toward sunrise with the influx of moisture
which should result in mild low temperatures in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...Severe Thunderstorms Thursday...

The next upper level disturbance/storm system(currently off southern
CA coast per WV imagery) is due in by middle of this week and at
the surface will see a weak surface cold front across the Permian
Basin to along I-20 across north Texas and a dryline across the
Trans Pecos for most of Thursday. At least the southern 2/3 of the
area will be in the warm sector, mainly along and south of I-20,
with rich low level moisture and strong afternoon
instability(SBCAPE 3000+). The Hi-Res models indicate morning
showers and thunderstorms with large hail the main threat across
the northern and eastern parts of the area. There should be enough
recovery time and surface heating for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms to develop Thursday afternoon and evening. The
buoyancy/deep layer shear profiles favor supercells in the warm
sector(the Concho Valley into the Heartland having the best
threat). The main hazards will be very large hail, isolated
tornadoes and damaging winds. These storms should congeal and move
east, becoming more of a damaging wind and hail threat during the
evening. Going with medium to high chances of rain and severe
wording in the grids for Thursday and Thursday evening.

Look for dry and hot weather this weekend through early next week
as a sub-tropical ridge builds across the area along with an 850
MB thermal ridge just west of our area. Highs will be in the 90s
to around 103 mainly across the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards
Plateau.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions with increasing southerly winds this morning.
Winds will increase through afternoon with gusts over 25 KT
possible. An isolated storm or two will be possible late this
afternoon, but this was left out of the TAF sites due to low
coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     90  65  79  60 /   0  20  80  40
San Angelo  93  67  88  60 /   0  10  60  10
Junction    95  68  89  63 /   0  10  60  10
Brownwood   89  64  77  62 /   0  20  90  30
Sweetwater  91  65  80  60 /   0  20  80  40
Ozona       90  67  91  60 /  10  20  20  10
Brady       90  66  79  62 /   0  10  80  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...SK