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000
FXUS64 KSJT 232324
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
624 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions to prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through the period, with just a veil of high clouds spreading
across the area overnight from storms well to the northeast. Light
east and southeast winds will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

The diurnal cumulus field is not as robust as what we saw yesterday
across the region; a combination of both the subsidence associated
with the subtropical ridge and the decline in boundary layer
moisture. We certainly can`t rule out a stray shower this afternoon,
but, generally hot and dry conditions will continue through early
evening. We are keeping an eye on the MCS over eastern OK. This
cluster of storms will continue to move south this afternoon,
potentially being advected more southwesterly overnight, following
the steering flow around the subtropical ridge. However, this
activity is not expected to affect West Central TX, dissipating
before it reaches our eastern counties.

Light southeast winds are anticipated overnight with temperatures
falling into the upper 60s and lower 70s by sunrise. Weather
conditions on Thursday should be very similar to today, with a
southeast wind under 10 mph and temperatures near 100 degrees.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Hot conditions will continue into the weekend as an upper ridge
persists over the region. 850 MB temperatures climb 1 to 2 degrees
C Friday, corresponding to a 1 to 3 degree F increase at the
surface. This should bring most of region into the 100 to 103 F
range into Sunday.

The upper pattern changes in the early and mid part of next week,
however, as a large upper trough develops over the eastern half of
the United States. This will bring northwest flow and cooler air
aloft over North Texas. The northwest flow aloft, along with a weak
cold front Monday, may destabilize the atmosphere enough to bring a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the Big
Country, and including Brown and Coleman counties. A slightly
stronger cold front is possible Wednesday as the upper trough
deepens over the East. The GFS and EC models indicated mainly
isolated thunderstorms for the early/mid part of next week. The GFS
12Z model is wetter than the EC for West Central Texas, with the EC
indicating most of the rainfall farther north in the Red River
Valley. The main weather threat is the potential for strong gusty
winds near the thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73 100  75 101  76 /   5   5   5   5   0
San Angelo  71 100  73 101  74 /   5   5   5   5   0
Junction  71  97  71 100  72 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07