Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 311144
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
644 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Northeast
winds of 5 to 10 knots this morning will increase to around 10
knots later this morning with a few gusts to near 20 knots
possible, especially along the I-10 corridor at KSOA and KJCT.
Expect winds to diminish during the afternoon hours, and remain
light overnight with continued clear skies, save for a few upper
level clouds. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet weather is expected in the short term behind the cold front
that moved through last night. Much drier weather is moving into
the area behind the cold front today. Dewpoint values are already
in the 30s from Interstate 20 corridor northward, and this drier
air will continue to filter into the area behind the front today.
So, with highs ranging from the 60s north to the mid 70s south,
highs will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than Thursday.

The main concern for the short term will be how cool temperatures
will get tonight. Overnight, surface winds will diminish to less
than 10 knots. Skies will be mainly clear, and a much cooler/drier
air mass will be in place as well. All these factors point to a
situation where temperatures will be able to drop into the 30s
across much of the area, and possibly into the mid 30s in valley
areas. Have lowered temperatures a few degrees as a result. With
this setup, frost will be a possibility for eastern valley
locations, and areas mainly north of Interstate 20. Although we
will hold off on issuing an advisory at this point, one may be
issued later today.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday and Sunday)

Looks like a nice weekend with seasonable temperatures. Low level
southerly flow will pick up on the back side of surface high to
our east and lee trough to the west.

(Monday through next Friday)

There is a good chance of rain early next week with beneficial
rainfall amounts possible. The combination of an upper level
trough moving across the Central and Southern Plains, and a cold
front will bring showers and thunderstorms to West Central Texas
Monday and Tuesday. Other favorable factors going for potential
heavy rainfall include a slow moving frontal system, elevated
convection behind the front and right rear entrance region of 250
MB jet. Also, low level southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico
along will help increase low level moisture and some mid and upper
moisture connection from Tropical Storm Vance. The PW values will
increase to 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches
are possible, especially across southern and eastern parts of the
area. The highest rain chances(likely POPS) are Monday night and
Tuesday. Looks like mainly a dry forecast for Wednesday through
Friday, even through the medium range models indicate an upper
level low over the area with the possibility of lingering showers.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  66  37  64  47  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  71  38  68  49  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
Junction  73  37  67  47  70 /   5   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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