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000
FXUS64 KSJT 192045
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
345 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)

Currently, we have scattered showers and thunderstorms east of a
line from Abilene, to Menard, to Sonora. None of these storms are
severe yet, but with MLCAPE values of up to 2500+ J/kg across our
CWA, some of these storm could become marginally severe with wind
gusts over 60 mph, and large hail. Additional thunderstorms are
expected to develop to our west along a tightening dryline to our
west. The later development will be moving into the same
environment as these current storms, so will also have a chance
for becoming severe due to large hail and wind gusts of 60 mph or
greater. Should thunderstorms develop to our west, an MCS could
form in our western CWA, and travel south/southeast into the Hill
Country with a good LLJ aiding in sustaining thunderstorm
development. Expect that most of the thunderstorm activity will
end around midnight or shortly after. Expect lows tonight in the
low 70s for most areas.

On Wednesday, expect drier conditions over all, with continued
very hot temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

As an upper level trough deepens over the west coast, west-central
Texas will be on the eastern fringes of southwesterly flow aloft.
However, until the upper level trough moves towards the area late
in the weekend/early next week, we will remain mostly dry as
upper level high pressure centered near the Great Lakes ridges
down into the region. Although a couple of diurnal storms cannot
be ruled completely out, most areas should stay dry. As the upper
level trough and associated cold front approach the region next
week, rain chances will increase. As can be expected this far out,
there are some models differences in timing/strength, but overall
it appears that a decent chance of rain will impact the region at
the end of the long term period. Temps will continue to be above
normal, generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  73  94 /  20   5  20  20
San Angelo  74  99  74  94 /  20  10  20  20
Junction  74  96  73  93 /  20   5  20  20
Brownwood  73  97  73  93 /  30  10  20  10
Sweetwater  74  97  73  93 /  20  10  20  20
Ozona       72  95  71  91 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$