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057
FXUS64 KSJT 281138 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
638 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low cloud development/expansion over our southern and some eastern
counties will affect our southern TAF sites, with KSJT near the
northern edge of the low cloud field. KJCT and KSOA will have
ceilings between 600 ft and 1200 ft, while KBBD and KSJT can
expect occasional MVFR ceilings. A resumption of VFR conditions
is expected by late morning with low cloud cover either breaking
up or ceilings increasing to/above 3000 ft. Winds will be mainly
from the south and will increase today, with gusts 18-20 knots
expected at KABI and KSJT by midday or early afternoon. Mostly
clear skies are expected through most of tonight, although patchy
low cloud development with MVFR ceilings may affect KBBD and KJCT
toward morning. Mainly south winds will continue tonight at 10-15
knots at KABI, 5-10 knots at KSJT, and around 5 knots at our
southern terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Subtropical high will remain centered over northern Mexico today and
tonight, with our area on its northeastern periphery. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer for highs today, as a low-level thermal
ridge begins to build east into our area. With lee surface trough
developing across eastern New Mexico and increased surface pressure
gradient, south winds will increase across our area today.
Low cloud cover will develop/expand north across much of the area
southeast of a Baird to San Angelo to Iraan line early this morning.
Low cloud cover should break up by mid-to-late morning, with clear
to partly cloudy skies expected this afternoon.

Lows tonight will be a little warmer than the previous night as
south winds continue. Skies will be mostly clear through most of the
night, with patchy low cloud cover developing across some of our
eastern and southeastern counties toward morning.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Hot and mainly dry forecast to continue across West Central Texas
through the 4th of July, with a brief exception on Friday and
Saturday. Upper level ridge to remain the main player, with the
ridge centered over the Southwest US and ridging into West Central
Texas. An upper level trough will drop into the Plains for Friday
and Saturday, weakening the eastern portion of the ridge. This
weakening of the ridge will combine with a cold front dropping
into the Big Country Friday night to allow for a few thunderstorms
across the northern portions of the area. Main focus for these
storms will be Friday Night across those areas north of I-20,
although some additional isolated activity will be possible as far
south as the Concho Valley and Heartland. GFS and ECMWF have their
differences on just to what extent the ridge builds back into the
area early next week, although differences do not make a huge
difference in the weather for West Central Texas at this point.

Temperature wise, warming conditions continue for Thursday and
Friday ahead of the weak front. Did boost temperatures a couple
degrees across the Big Country Friday afternoon, with the
possibility of some compressional warming ahead of the front. Many
locations across the Concho Valley and Big Country may end up
very near the 100 degree mark.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  73  99  75 /   5   0   0   0
San Angelo  95  72 100  75 /   5   0   5   0
Junction  92  71  96  74 /   5   0   5   5
Brownwood  92  70  98  75 /   5   0   5   0
Sweetwater  94  73 101  74 /   5   0   0   0
Ozona       93  70  98  73 /   5   0   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation and Short Term: 19
Long Term: 07