Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 221757 AAB
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1257 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Aviation forecast is problematic with cloud ceilings and duration
of low cloud cover this afternoon and again overnight and Tuesday
morning. Cloud ceilings have been slow to improve, and at midday
today still have IFR ceilings at all TAF sites except KABI.
Ceilings will lift into the 2500-3500 ft range later this
afternoon and evening, and some partial breakup of low cloud
cover is also expected. Showers and thunderstorms should develop
west of our area and track into west central Texas this evening
through early tonight. Carrying VCTS groups to account for this
anticipated convection. Temporary reductions in ceiling and
visibility are possible in locally rain accompanying the
convection, and gusty winds will be possible at the onset.
After the convection dissipates or moves out of the area, low
cloud development is anticipated again overnight, with low cloud
ceilings persisting into Tuesday morning. With the arrival of a
cold front Tuesday morning, winds will shift to the north. Showers
and thunderstorms may accompany this front, and VCTS groups are
being carried at our TAF sites around the expected times of
frontal passage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 610 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus is resulting in IFR/LIFR conditions at all sites this
morning. In addition, brief MVFR/IFR visibilities will be
possible. Expect skies to become MVFR by late morning or early
afternoon. Brief VFR conditions will be possible this afternoon at
KSOA, with generally MVFR prevailing at the other sites. Showers
and thunderstorms will approach the TAF sites from the north and
west this evening. Given the continued uncertainty on timing and
coverage, VCTS groups were included at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers continue across our eastern counties early this
morning, as an upper level shortwave trough exits the region.
Some of this activity may linger through mid morning, with mainly
dry conditions expected from late morning into the afternoon
hours. Extensive cloud cover will once again result in below
normal high temperatures today. Expect highs in the mid 70s to
near 80 degrees. Winds will be from the southeast at 4 to 8 mph.

West Central Texas will be in west northwest flow aloft during
the overnight hours, with intermittent disturbances moving across
the region. One such disturbance is forecast to move across
Southeast New Mexico/West Texas during the evening hours according
to several high resolution models. This will result in shower and
thunderstorm activity to our west, which is then forecast to move
east southeast across the region this evening into the early
morning hours Tuesday. a few strong to severe thunderstorms will
be possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main
hazards. A cold front is then forecast to move into the Big
Country after midnight and into the Concho Valley shortly before
sunrise. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along the front, along with cooler temperatures and wind
shift to the north.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Weekend)

Early Tuesday morning, a cold front will be moving into the area.
Showers and thunderstorms may accompany this cold front as it
moves through the region, especially during the morning hours, so
will carry at chance of showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday
for this. Precipitation will move south of the forecast by Tuesday
evening.

Dry northwest flow will transition to southwesterly flow by the
end of the work week. Temperatures will warm well above normal
Thursday into the weekend. Highs will be in the 90s for nearly the
entire area Thursday through Saturday, with a few readings near
100 possible Friday and Saturday. On Friday, a dryline may sharpen
up, and result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms generally
east of an Abilene to Junction line. During the weekend,
additional rain chances will impact the area as a cold front moves
into the area, combining with plentiful low level moisture, and
passing shortwaves in southwest flow.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  71  51  84 /  60  40   5   0
San Angelo  61  73  52  85 /  50  50   5   0
Junction  62  75  50  85 /  40  50   5   0
Brownwood  59  71  49  84 /  50  50  10   0
Sweetwater  58  68  53  84 /  60  40   5   0
Ozona       61  74  51  83 /  40  50  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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