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000
FXUS64 KSJT 211112
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
612 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus will be possible across the Interstate 10 corridor
this morning, but is not expected to affect any of the TAF sites.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.
Expect south winds of 6 to 12 knots through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level ridge centered across the Southeast United States
will stretch into Texas today and tonight, resulting in generally hot
and dry conditions for West Central Texas. Any convection that
develops across far West Texas is forecast to remain to our west.
Highs today will be above seasonal normals, in the mid to upper 90s.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Although some mid and
upper level cloud cover from convection to our west may stream
across the area this morning, generally mostly sunny skies are
forecast by late morning and into the afternoon hours. This should
result in fairly good viewing conditions for the upcoming eclipse.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday-Sunday)

A weak cool front and outflow boundary/ies in advance of the next
approaching front could impact the Big Country, north of I20, by
Tuesday evening, and the rest of West Central Texas on Wednesday.
Continued 30 to 40 Pops for that period as scattered convection
seems to be more likely, because an upper level ridge of high
pressure aloft could limit thunderstorm coverage. By Thursday,
chances decrease to 20 Pops with 30-40s across the Northwest Hill
Country counties.

By Friday into Saturday, the GFS and ECMWF were in close
agreement, showing a tropical disturbance reaching the lower Texas
Coast by Friday morning. Tropical moisture associated with this
system could reach West Central Texas this Friday into Saturday.
With much uncertainty, we`ll continue some Pops and monitor
products from the National Hurricane Center as they closely
monitor this system.

High temperatures in the mid 90s on Tuesday will continue their
decline into the upper 80s to near 90 by Thursday into this
weekend as rain chances continue and sky cover increases. Surface
winds will remain rather light through much of this week.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  74  95  73 /   0   0   5  30
San Angelo  99  73  96  73 /   0   0   5  20
Junction  97  72  96  73 /   0   0   5  10
Brownwood  96  73  95  73 /   0   0   5  20
Sweetwater  95  74  93  71 /   5   0  10  30
Ozona       93  71  93  72 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels