Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 041131
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

An area of low stratus is encroaching upon the I-10 terminals
early this morning. Expect a few hours of MVFR ceilings at KJCT
and KSOA, with tempo MVFR conditions possible at both KBBD and
KSJT few an hour or two. Low clouds will lift by mid-morning with
an afternoon cu field around/above 7000 ft. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly along/south
of a KSOA-KBBD line. However, limited coverage will preclude
mention in the TAF package. Expect south to southeast winds at
generally 10 kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low stratus is developing over the Hill Country and will spread
north through the early morning hours. This may result in a few
hours of overcast conditions for some areas along/south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Ceilings will erode by mid-morning with a
diurnal cu field setting up by midday. Temperatures are forecast to
be very similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 90s. While the
upper-level ridge will keep the hot and dry conditions in place
across most of the area, increasing moisture and instability will
provide an opportunity for isolated convection this afternoon,
primarily south of a Sonora to Brady line. Coverage is expected to
remain limited if this activity develops.

Diurnal clouds and (possible) convection will dissipate quickly
around sunset. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight
with temperatures falling into the low/mid 70s by daybreak Saturday.
Low clouds will be possible once again, mainly over the northwest
Hill Country.

LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday)

Shower and thunderstorms may develop toward the middle of next
week, as the the upper ridge weakens and pushes southwest into
Mexico. A weak cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night may bring
a low level focus for storm development into Thursday. The best
rain chances on Thursday will be along the I-10 corridor, as drier
air works in behind the front. Some storms may contain locally
heavy rainfall as precipitable waters rise to 1.8 to 2.0 inches.
An isolated severe storm also possible with GFS SBCAPEs up to
1500 J/KG.

Until then, the upper ridge will suppress shower and thunderstorms,
Temperatures likely rise a couple degrees Sunday and Monday as the
upper ridge temporarily expands and an 850 MB thermal ridge builds
in from west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  74  95  76 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  74  96  75 /   5   5   5   0
Junction  96  72  94  73 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson


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