Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 250824
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
324 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The forecast for next 24 hours will be essentially a repeat of the
forecast for the last 24 hours. The only difference is we will
continue a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly along
and south of a line from San Saba to Ozona, for this afternoon and
this evening. Models continue to bring a weak disturbance aloft from
Mexico north over the next 24 hours. The HRRR, which at this time
projects our to 21Z this afternoon, indicates little if any chance
for convection there. Plus, the NAM doesn`t either. Nevertheless,
will continue 20 PoPs along and south of this line, for continuity.
Otherwise, look for another dry 24 hours, with highs this afternoon
in the lower to mid 90s and lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s.
Winds today will be from the southeast or south, in the 10 to 15 mph
range, with gusts around 20 mph. For tonight, winds will diminish
but continue from the southeast in the 5 to 10 mph range.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

An upper low over the Big Bend region will continue to drift
northward and will be over our western CWA during the day on
Sunday. Looking for rain chances associated with this upper low on
Sunday for most of the CWA with the better chances over the
western half of the forecast area nearer to the upper low.

The first of the coming week will see an upper high now centered
over southern California re-center over the Four Corners area. A
series of upper level disturbances will track around the eastern
periphery of the upper high and over the forecast area on Monday
and Tuesday. Monday and Monday night will see the best chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the Big Country and northern
Heartland where upper level disturbances tracking southward
interact with a stationary surface boundary over the Big Country.
Rain chance will then expand over the remainder of the forecast
area during the day on Tuesday.

The upper ridge axis associated with the upper high over the Four
Corners will expand to the southeast over Texas Wednesday through
the end of the week. This will bring dry weather and warmer
temperatures to the forecast area Wednesday through Friday.
Afternoon highs in the lower 90s during the first of the week will
warm into the mid to upper 90s by the end of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  74  92  73 /   5   5  30  20
San Angelo  94  73  91  71 /  10  10  30  20
Junction  93  73  91  72 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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