Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 181729
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across all terminals today and
tonight. High level clouds will move in from the west through the
afternoon. Gusty southeast winds between 10-15 knots with gusts up
to 20 knots will develop across all terminals going through the
afternoon. The winds will diminish to below 10 knots by the
evening. There is a possibility for MVFR ceilings to affect KJCT
and KSOA during the early morning hours between 12-15z. Decided to
included MVFR ceilings in this TAF package, but will continue to
monitor the model data to adjust timing of the low clouds or the
possibility of removal of the ceilings depending on model trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail today and tonight, with
clear to partly cloudy skies. South winds will increase to 10-15
knots at KABI and KSJT by 15-16Z, with occasional gusts to around
20 knots. At KJCT and KBBD, light south winds will increase to
near 10 knots by midday. A few high clouds will move over the
area today and tonight. Patchy low cloud development is possible
by early Thursday morning along the I-10 corridor, potentially
affecting KJCT and KSOA with brief MVFR ceilings. With limited
confidence in occurrence and timing at the end of this TAF
forecast period, not including a mention at this time. Will
monitor subsequent model data, however, for possible inclusion
in later TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A shortwave upper ridge over Texas and the southern Plains today
will shift east into Louisiana and Arkansas tonight, as a shortwave
trough approaches Texas from the west. Our area will have a warming
trend in temperatures as south winds continue. With sunny skies
today, highs will be be in the lower to mid 80s. With surface
pressure gradient a little tighter, wind speeds will be a little
higher today across our area. Lows tonight will be in the 50s, with
clear to partly cloudy skies. The cooler readings (lower 50s) are
expected in low-lying areas and along river valleys of some of our
eastern and southern counties, where winds will once again become
light. With an increase in low-level moisture overnight, patchy low
cloud cover may develop over our far southern counties along the
I-10 corridor by early Thursday morning.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Warm again on Wednesday, although perhaps a couple degrees cooler
than today as low level moisture and cloud cover increases. Models
continue to show an upper level trough developing and swinging
across West Central Texas by late Thursday into Friday. Enough
lift to generate at least some isolated showers and storms and
have once again expanded the coverage area expected.

Stronger trough and an associated cold front will begin to
approach the area by Saturday afternoon, with the best chanced for
convection Saturday Night. GFS has come in wetter on the 00Z run,
while the 00Z keeps most of the showers and storms across the
eastern counties east into Central Texas. IN either case, best ran
chances will be across the Heartland, Hill Country, and eastern
Big Country with decreasing chances as you move west.

Temperatures behind the front for early next week will be a little
cooler, pretty close to seasonal normals with highs in the mid and
upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  57  80  63  79 /   0   0  20  20
San Angelo  55  81  62  81 /   0   0  20  20
Junction  52  80  63  80 /   0   5  20  20
Brownwood  53  81  62  79 /   0   0  20  30
Sweetwater  57  80  62  79 /   0   0  20  20
Ozona       54  79  62  78 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/40


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