578
FXUS64 KSJT 041710
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Temperatures will be well above normal for much of West Central
Texas today, as an 850 mb thermal ridge continues to build over our
area. West/southwest winds at the surface will bring hot,
downsloping air into West Central Texas. The dry line will push east
into our area this afternoon. Temperatures to the west of the dry
line are forecast to be in the 103 to 107 range. Temperatures will
be a bit cooler to the east of the dry line, but moisture will be
much higher, and heat indices could reach to near 108 in our
southeastern counties. A Heat Advisory has been issued for counties
south of the Big Country. This is not to say that the Big Country
won`t be hot today, because it definitely will be (record breaking
to be exact), but it`s looking like it will sit right below Advisory
thresholds or only hit it for a short period of time. The forecast
high today in Abilene is 3 degrees higher than the record for this
date (101 set in 2013). The forecast high in San Angelo is
equivalent to the record for this date (107 set in 1916). So we
could see another record breaking day today.

Precipitation chances will remain low today. Strong storms are
expected to our east/northeast this evening. There is a small chance
the storms could clip the northern Big Country, but storms don`t
look likely right now. We could see an boundary push through late
this evening and overnight, bringing gusty north winds for a few
hours after its passage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A generally hot and dry, but typical, pattern is in store for the
over west central Texas for the Wednesday through Sunday timeframe.
A 590 dam height ridge at the mid-levels will begin to set up over
New Mexico and far west Texas on Wednesday and persist through at
least Friday. West central Texas will be on the east side of this
ridge and shortwaves embedded in northwest flow aloft may help to
generate thunderstorm chances for the Big Country on Wednesday and
Friday.  A weak cold front should dip as far south as the Concho
Valley on Wednesday and could hold high temperatures down into the
mid 90s.  In the same token, cold pooling from thunderstorms over
southwest Oklahoma and north Texas on Friday could also provide some
relief from the heat. However, this will fully depend on how
mesoscale features develop that day. Otherwise, high temperatures
will be in the upper 90s to around 100 through Saturday.

Looking ahead to Sunday through early next week, global models show
a closed upper low near Baja California getting absorbed into a
deepening trough over the West Coast.  This would allow the mid-
level ridge to begin to break down over the central US.  Chances for
showers and thunderstorms should increase during this time period,
especially as a stronger front comes through on Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Except for visibility reductions to MVFR in haze at KJCT and
possibly KBBD toward morning, VFR conditions expected. Gusty
southwest winds weaken toward 00Z. A wind shift to the northeast
at 6 KTS expected at KABI around 10Z and KSJT 13Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    104  72  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 107  74 102  71 /   0   0  10   0
Junction   103  76 102  72 /  10   0  10  10
Brownwood   98  73  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 103  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona      103  73 102  72 /   0   0  10   0
Brady      100  74  96  70 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Coke-Coleman-
Concho-Crockett-Irion-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Runnels-San
Saba-Schleicher-Sterling-Sutton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...04