633
FXUS64 KSJT 040523
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1223 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Latest visible imagery shows an outflow boundary south of the Red
River, which may move into Haskell and Throckmorton counties.
This area is probably the best bet for a thunderstorm or two this
afternoon evening, but can not rule out isolated storms farther
south...from Brownwood to Junction and east...where there may be
differential heating from a stratus layer from earlier this
morning.

The focus for Tuesday transitions from storms to heat, as an
upper ridge develops over the region, and a dryline develops east
of a Sonora to San Angelo to Abilene to Haskell line in the
afternoon. Highs will approach 105 in the Concho Valley, although
heat indices are lower at upper 90s to 100. Farther east, heat
indices along and east of a Brownwood to Junction line range from
105 to 108. A heat advisory may be needed in either or both of
these areas Tuesday afternoon, with areas from Brownwood to
Junction and east have the greatest risk.

Record high temperatures are in jeopardy Tuesday. The record high
at Abilene of 101 in 2013 looks to be exceeded with a forecast
high of 104. San Angelo forecast of 105 will be close, with the
record high of 107 in 1916.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

High pressure aloft and general zonal flow aloft will sit over
much of West Central Texas through the weekend and into early
next week, allowing for above normal and potentially record
breaking heat for this week. A surface low will approach the area
from the west to southwest on Wednesday, shifting winds from the
southwest to east/southeast, resulting in increased moisture
across the area and accompanying higher apparent temperatures.
So, even though the actual temperature is forecast to be slightly
lower than Tuesday, the heat index (how hot it feels) will likely
be similar if not higher for some areas Wednesday and Thursday.
Looking at the current WBGT Heat Risk, we are seeing portions of
the Heartland and NW Hill Country forecast to reach the extreme
threshold for Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Heat advisories
and possibly even an excessive heat warning are likely to be
issued. The good news is that the ridging aloft will likely
suppress thunderstorm activity through Saturday with the next
chances for thunderstorms being Sunday and Monday next week mainly
across the Big Country.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Patchy low clouds are present to our southeast. These could make
there way into our 3 southern terminals (KJCT, KBBD, and KSOA)
over the next few hours. MVFR CIGs will be possible early this
morning for these areas. Skies should start to clear after
sunrise. Gusty winds will prevail for much of the late morning
and early afternoon, before weakening after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    102  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 105  74 102  73 /   0   0  10  10
Junction   104  75 102  73 /   0  10  10  10
Brownwood   99  73  94  72 /   0  10   0  10
Sweetwater 103  71  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona      103  74 102  73 /   0   0  10  10
Brady       99  74  96  72 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...AP