Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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471 FXUS64 KSJT 020537 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1237 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Currently, we have temperatures in the 80s to near 90 degrees, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. This is yielding CAPEs in the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range across the area, along with effective bulk shear values of 35 to 50 knots for the most part. The dryline is well off to the west, and convection has developed over the higher terrain to our west. These storms are expected to move east toward our area during the evening hours, but skeptical about how much progress they will be able to make into our area, as they will be moving in during the evening hours as that instability starts to wane. But, considering the combination of instability/shear available, will include a mention of severe weather potential for our western areas this evening, with the best chances in Crockett County. The main concerns will be large to very large hail, and damaging wind gusts. For Sunday, similar conditions will yield another unstable atmosphere by mid to late afternoon. So, we will have another chance for isolated to widely scattered storms developing to the west of the area, and moving into our western counties during the late afternoon/evening hours, with some of these storms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 For Sunday night, the combination of an upper level disturbance, a dryline to the west and strong/locally extreme instability will result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the area during the evening. A few storms may be severe with the main hazards being large to very large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, expect hot and mainly dry conditions for much of this week due to an upper level ridge building across the Southern Plains and a 850 MB thermal ridge of 28-30 deg C. Highs will be upper 90s to around 105 Tuesday through Thursday. Please follow heat safety precautions. Expect slight cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday with highs in the 90s to around 100. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Satellite images indicate the MCS feature across the northern Edwards Plateau is providing mostly high level clouds across the southern and western portions of the CWA late tonight. Ceilings were near 3000ft at KBBD. Expect MVFR to VFR conditions to prevail across west central Texas the rest of tonight into early Sunday morning as low level moisture across the northern Edwards Plateau and northwest Hill Country allows low level clouds to develop. With the MCV moving eastward across the northern Edwards Plateau and northwest Hill Country the rest of tonight...isolated convection may develop across portions of the CWA early Sun morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 89 72 95 71 / 20 30 10 10 San Angelo 94 74 100 74 / 10 30 10 10 Junction 95 76 98 74 / 10 20 10 10 Brownwood 88 72 92 69 / 20 20 10 20 Sweetwater 90 73 97 72 / 20 30 10 0 Ozona 91 74 96 73 / 10 20 0 0 Brady 89 73 92 71 / 10 20 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...61