Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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808 FXUS65 KABQ 171722 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1122 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 233 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 Patchy fog in valleys and other low-lying areas early this morning will quickly dissipate after sunrise. Temperatures rise to near average today, then climb to the highest values of the season thus far this weekend. Southwest to west winds also trend stronger today through Monday afternoon, but are expected to remain below high wind levels. A dry Pacific front brings a modest cooldown Tuesday, keeping temps near seasonal averages through the end of the workweek. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 233 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 The tale of two low pressure systems continues to influence sensible weather as the disturbances push east. Unable to phase into each other, the more saturated northern system will eject into the Great Plains today, leaving its drier counterpart behind. The remains of their affair will bring much quieter weather in its aftermath as the southern system swings into West Texas, allowing a tilted ridge to form in its wake. Patchy fog may develop in the central valleys and across some of the highlands of the central mts thanks to the previous day`s rains. The cattywampus ridge scoots in on NM, raising pressure heights and leading to a rapid warmup areawide. Daytime highs today will see an increase of around 10F to 18F compared to Thursday`s readings, bringing all locales near to above normal. Recycled moisture may lead to a few crops of towering cu, with the best chance for convection favoring the south central mts. Overnight temps will follow suit, being generally a few to several degrees warmer than Thursday night`s readings with clear conditions. The tilted ridge straightens out on Saturday, its axis centering over NM. Pressure heights rise another few decameters, allowing for daytime highs to rise even further. This will allow the middle and lower RGV to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, while the southeastern plains (including KROW) flirt with the century mark. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 233 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 The subtropical jet will strengthen and lift into New Mexico on Sunday, resulting in an uptick of wind speeds. Clear skies and mixing up to 15kft will surely bring some stronger gusts down the the sfc during the afternoon hours Sunday and moreso Monday when gusts to 50 mph are possible in the typical windy areas just east of the central mtn chain. Temperatures will be similar Sunday and Monday as well, ranging from near average across the west to 10 degrees above average in the east. There`s a >70% chance that Roswell will hit at least 100 degrees both Sunday and Monday where moderate heat risk is expected. The good news is that efficient radiational cooling overnight will help temps drop 30-40 degrees each night, offering some relief from the heat. A dry cold front will pass over the area Monday night into Tuesday, dropping temps a few degrees. Around 1/3 of global models, mostly Canadian ensemble members, have a deeper and slower moving trough that would push the cold front through on Tuesday as opposed to Monday night. Long-term model guidance is in excellent agreement that New Mexico will be sandwiched in between the sub-tropical and polar jets mid- next week, preventing widespread windy conditions from developing. With near average 500mb heights, temps will be hovering right around seasonal averages. Apart from the localized fire weather concerns, its looking like beautiful late Spring weather will prevail Tuesday through at least Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period. Gusty west-northwest winds will prevail this afternoon across central and western NM, with occasional gusts to between 20-30kts. A few late day buildups may bring strong/erratic wind gusts near KLVS, KROW and possibly KTCC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 Light winds will help to mitigate critical fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday as a ridge of high pressure takes hold. The ridge will usher in markedly drier air which will strengthen its grasp on northern and central New Mexico by Sunday. Widespread low double digit and single digit relative humidity will be commonplace on Sunday afternoon alongside some of the season`s hottest temperatures. West to southwest winds will also strengthen, bringing critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern New Mexico. Recent rains, however, will help to limit fire danger by greening up fuels. Even drier air will take hold on Monday and the ridge will breakdown completely, bringing more widespread gusty winds. With much of the central mountains and westward not receiving much in the way of wetting rainfall, concerns for critical fire weather conditions will arise Monday. Warm, dry, and breezy conditions prevail Tuesday and Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions may return to parts of the highlands Thursday as gusty southwest winds mix with single digit relative humidity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 82 47 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 77 37 80 40 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 75 43 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 81 40 81 36 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 74 43 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 78 41 83 38 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 76 44 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 78 52 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 74 48 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 83 39 85 38 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 86 54 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 70 39 73 39 / 5 0 5 10 Los Alamos...................... 73 51 76 52 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 74 46 78 47 / 5 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 42 73 44 / 5 5 5 5 Red River....................... 65 37 69 37 / 5 10 10 10 Angel Fire...................... 67 33 72 33 / 0 0 5 5 Taos............................ 74 39 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 71 42 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 80 47 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 74 50 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 78 48 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 81 56 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 82 53 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 84 50 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 83 54 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 85 52 89 50 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 84 52 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 84 50 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 84 52 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 84 52 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 79 54 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 83 53 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 87 56 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 73 52 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 77 51 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 76 47 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 41 83 42 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 73 46 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 76 49 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 76 48 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 80 55 86 57 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 74 51 80 53 / 10 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 74 47 76 47 / 5 0 5 5 Raton........................... 78 44 81 46 / 5 10 5 5 Springer........................ 78 44 83 46 / 5 5 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 75 46 80 47 / 5 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 80 54 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 76 49 82 51 / 5 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 83 51 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 80 52 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 83 52 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 83 55 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 84 54 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 83 53 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 88 59 99 61 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 81 56 89 57 / 10 0 0 0 Elk............................. 79 53 87 55 / 20 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...11