463
FXUS64 KEPZ 060545
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1145 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Hot temperatures are expected into Friday with afternoon highs
100 to 108 degrees in the lowlands. Moisture increases into the
weekend, bringing an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the mountains. Strong downdraft winds
are the main threat with this activity. Temperatures cool to near
normal early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Very hot temperatures are expected Thursday, and most likely
continue into Friday as an upper high pressure builds into the
region.  A Heat advisory along the Lower Rio Grande continues into
Thursday and will likely be extended Friday. Thursday looks to be
the hottest day with highs of 107 at El Paso. Friday highs will be
dependent on how much thunderstorm coverage will be present, but
highs may be only a degree or two less.

Temperatures subside this weekend. However, thunderstorm activity
will likely increase as weak disturbances move across, and a
monsoonal-like environment develops. There is the potential for very
strong downdrafts and microbursts into Friday, with very dry air
in the low/mid levels. Rain chances decrease by Tuesday as the
disturbances move east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Light and variable flow with high pressure aloft directly
overhead. Very warm tomorrow afternoon. Overnight surface winds
west 240-280 AOB 08 knots across W NM and southeast 140-170 AOB 08
knots across central NM and W TX. Prevailing flow from the SSE
tomorrow 5 to 10 knots. Cumulus developing over area mountains
tomorrow afternoon, but no ceilings expected at lowland terminals
(generally FEW- SCT130 SCT-BKN250).

$$

30-Dennhardt

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Fire weather conditions will continue to be elevated into next week.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected in the Sacramento mountains this
afternoon, with dry lightning, along with erratic and gusty winds.
Showers and thunderstorms chances increase Thursday and Friday with
the a good chance of thunderstorms in the mountains, and lower
chances in the low lands. Several disturbances along will continue
to bring showers and thunderstorms chances Saturday into Monday with
more isolated potential by Tuesday.

Minimum RHs this afternoon and Thursday will be 5-12% across most
of the area except for in the Sacramento Mountains where they will
be 15-25%. Friday minimum RH values increase to 10 to 15 percent
with 25 percent in the mountains. Ventilation rates will be good to
very good through Thursday, then very good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 107  80 105 /   0  10  20  20
Sierra Blanca            68  99  72  97 /   0  20  20  30
Las Cruces               70 105  72 103 /   0  10  10  20
Alamogordo               68 102  73 101 /   0  10  10  20
Cloudcroft               55  79  57  77 /   0  30  10  30
Truth or Consequences    71 102  72 100 /   0  10  10  30
Silver City              65  96  67  95 /   0  10  20  40
Deming                   65 104  68 103 /   0  10  20  30
Lordsburg                66 102  69 101 /   0  10  20  30
West El Paso Metro       75 104  77 102 /   0   0  20  20
Dell City                66 104  69 102 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Hancock             68 106  72 104 /   0  10  20  30
Loma Linda               70  98  73  95 /   0  10  10  30
Fabens                   70 106  74 104 /   0  10  20  20
Santa Teresa             68 103  72 101 /   0   0  20  20
White Sands HQ           76 103  77 102 /   0  10  20  30
Jornada Range            66 103  68 101 /   0  10  10  20
Hatch                    65 105  67 103 /   0  10  10  20
Columbus                 71 104  73 102 /   0  10  20  30
Orogrande                68 102  72 100 /   0  10  10  20
Mayhill                  59  92  61  89 /   0  30  10  40
Mescalero                58  91  60  88 /   0  20  10  30
Timberon                 57  89  58  87 /   0  20  10  30
Winston                  61  94  63  92 /   0  10  10  50
Hillsboro                68  99  69  98 /   0  10  20  40
Spaceport                63 102  65 100 /   0  10  10  20
Lake Roberts             61  97  63  95 /   0  10  10  40
Hurley                   63  99  65  97 /   0  10  20  30
Cliff                    62 104  65 103 /   0  10  10  30
Mule Creek               66  99  68  97 /   0  10  10  30
Faywood                  67  98  69  97 /   0  10  20  30
Animas                   66 102  69 100 /   0  20  30  40
Hachita                  66 102  69 100 /   0  10  30  30
Antelope Wells           66 101  69 100 /   0  20  40  40
Cloverdale               65  97  69  95 /   0  20  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for NMZ411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson