Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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510 FXUS63 KMPX 090759 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and windy today with slightly below normal temperatures. - Warming trend during the week with chances for rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, Thursday, and next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Today and tomorrow... Under surface high pressure clear to most clear skies with ample sun. This sun will help warm the boundary layer today to provide thermal profiles favorable for mixing. Therefore we will see another gusty day today with winds gusting up into the 25 to 35 mph range this afternoon. Also with no source for moisture advection today dew points will likely stay in the 40s. This means low RHs and gusty winds, which typically means a fire weather risk. Thankfully according to DNR fire danger maps, our rainfall over the past few weeks and lack of drought conditions is keeper fire risk low. Despite the ample sun today northerly flow aloft will help keep high temperatures slightly below normal in the upper 60s to mid 70s today. Similar setup on Monday although not as windy thanks to lighter winds aloft, so even with another good mixing day the winds are not looking to be as high. With the 850 mb flow shifting to the south on Monday though look for high temperatures to warm a few degrees into the 70s. Tuesday through Saturday... Tuesday will be warmer thanks to WAA despite increasing cloudiness tied to the arrival of our next system. Still tracking this shortwave trough that the past few days of discussions have mentioned. The associated surface low looks more likely to track to our north over far northern Minnesota or southern Canada. The better rain chances remain to the north as well closer to the low rather than along the cold front that will be over us. Agreement remains strong in the occurrence of rain, even though there is still a fair amount of spread in the QPF values over west central Minnesota. Farther south and east QPF values such more of a light rain event. This larger spread is related to how long the convection over South Dakota can hang on, as the high QPF members generally keep thunderstorms into western Minnesota. The likely timing of this rain moving through farther east is not favorable for thunderstorms earlier in the day. Depending on the timing of the frontal passage parts of eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin could see some thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening. WAA should continue through Thursday with upper 70s to mid 80s being the norm for high temperatures these days. Some locations breaking 90 is not unreasonable with NBM upper quartiles still showing it. Recent trends though suggest that unless the ridge builds in deeper this is unlikely. As mentioned in previous discussions, we look to be moving into a more prolonged warmer and wetter pattern starting later this week. This is thanks to a more active upper level pattern with the jet stream over/near us and multiple short waves passing through. This is reflected in the CPC outlooks where both the 6-10 and 8-14 favor above normal chances for temperature and precipitation. However when you look at individual ensemble members there remains quite a bit of spread. Overall the clustering for rain timing remains from late Wednesday into Thursday and the following weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions throughout with light winds near 05 kts overnight. On Sunday winds will increase during the morning, with gusts of 25 to possibly 30 kts mid day. Scattered cumulus will increase in coverage and become broken by evening, but bases should be above 4000 ft. Winds will start to decrease Sunday evening. KMSP...VFR conditions throughout. Light northwest winds overnight will increase again on Sunday. A few gusts near 30 kts are possible late Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. Clouds will increase during the day, but bases should remain above 4000 ft. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts. TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind S 10G20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...JRB