Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 261820
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
120 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

REALLY ONLY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW LONG WILL EXTENSIVE
STRATUS SHIELD FROM NRN MN DOWN INTO SRN WI THAT EXTENDS BACK INTO
THE ERN DAKOTAS IN A MORE BROKEN SENSE STICKS AROUND. THE ANSWER
LOOKS TO LIE WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WAS APPROACHING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT BE
VERY NOTICEABLE IN THE WIND FIELD...BUT IT WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER
AIR...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO AROUND ZERO. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT
DOES NOT START MOVING INTO CENTRAL MN/NRN WI UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON...SO DELAYED CIG IMPROVEMENT FOR TODAY. IN FACT...AS WE
GET A LITTLE MIXING GOING WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD FIELD EXPAND AS WE
DEVELOP A STRATOCU FIELD OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR HIGHS...ONE THING YESTERDAY SHOWED US WAS THAT THE SNOW COVER
FROM SUNDAYS SNOW IS NOT VERY COLD ANY MORE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WERE
MUCH MORE UNIFORM BETWEEN THE SNOW COVERED VERSE NON-SNOW COVERED
AREAS THAN WHAT WE SAW MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN THE COLD PATCH OVER
THE SNOW WAS MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A FAIRLY
UNIFORM HIGH TEMPERATURE FIELD FOR TODAY...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPS
DOWN BETWEEN -8C AND -12C HIGHS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S...A
GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BEHIND THE FRONT...A 1035 MB HIGH WILL BE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER MN TONIGHT. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND SLACKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF
PRETTY QUICK TONIGHT. QUICK LOOK AT TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
BENEATH THE HIGH IN NRN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN SHOWS MOST
LOCATIONS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN THE
GOING FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...WHICH IS A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...A FEW LOWS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WHERE WE HAVE THE REMNANT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE
ARE COUPLE OF FAIRLY MINOR PRECIP EVENTS WE ARE WATCHING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS: THE FIRST IS IN WESTERN MN ON FRIDAY AND THE
SECOND IS SUNDAY.

THE FIRST PRECIP EVENT ON FRIDAY IS IN RESPONSE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH SLIDES FROM
NW-SSE ACROSS WESTERN MN. WE HAVE INCREASE THE POPS AND INCLUDED
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY AS A RESULT OF THIS FEATURE. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS A
LITTLE BETTER OF THE 26.00Z GUIDANCE THAN IT HAS THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE GFS. BUT OVERALL...THERE IS BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT ON A LIGHT SNOW.

THE SECOND PRECIP EVENT IS IN RESPONSE TO MUCH MORE FORMIDABLE
WAVE THAT PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI STILL REMAINS JUST A BIT TOO FAR
SOUTH TO BE CONCERNED WITH A LOT OF QPF...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TRAILING S-SE NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ANY
PRECIP THAT FALLS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN GIVEN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES. THE BIGGER WEATHER
STORY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONG WINDS...FIRST OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND THEN OUT OF THE W-NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOSE TO 50KTS AT THE TOP
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EVEN WITH MODEST MIXING WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO ACHIEVE GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

STRATOCU STILL ROTATING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH IN CANADA IS
PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHERE SKIES HAVE NOW
CLEARED. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. SCATTERING OF THE DECK ALREADY ONGOING NEAR MILLE LACS.
MINIMAL IMPACT TO AVIATION REGARDLESS HAS BASES HAVE LIFTED TO VFR
LEVELS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN
THE DAY.

KMSP...A COUPLE HOURS OF VFR OVERCAST SKIES...THEN SCATTERING OUT
THIS EVENING. CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WINDS DIMINISHING AS WELL. NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC -RA/-SN LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. PRECIP DEPARTING EAST IN THE MORNING...SKIES CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS TURNING NW 20-25G35KTS.
MON...MVFR PSBL...WINDS WEST 5-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...SPD



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