Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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874 FXUS66 KMTR 040406 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 906 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New MARINE, BEACHES... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1256 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Temperatures remain at or slightly below seasonal averages today. Tomorrow sees a dramatic warmup with a Heat Advisory in effect for the inland areas through Thursday. Temperatures will moderate towards the latter part of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 851 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Today was the last "coolish" day of the week. Another cloudy start this morning with a patchy marine layer, persistent onshore flow, and filtered sunshine due to high clouds overhead, led to another seasonably cool day. Max temps were generally 5 to 15 degrees below seasonal average or in the upper 50s to lower 70s coast/bays and upper 60s to low 80s inland. Speaking of onshore flow, the SFO-SAC exceeded 4mb again today. Onshore winds were strong, but not as strong as yesterday. Peak gusts topped out in the mid 40 mph range - typical spots of gaps and passes. For the rest of tonight - not update needed. The real question tonight will be the extent of the marine layer. As noted by the Aviation section below, the most favored location will be around Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast. Otherwise, as high pressure builds in high clouds will continue to spill over the ridge. Did made adjustments to overnight lows through midweek, especially in the hills. The combination of hot daytime temperates and mild overnight lows will exacerbate any HeatRisk concerns. For those seeking relief by heading to the beach Wednesday and Thursday use caution as building surf will lead to hazardous conditions. A beach hazard statement is now in effect. MM && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1256 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The morning started pretty cloudy across the region as mid- to high level clouds stemming from a cold front coming through the Pacific Northwest came through the region. Several stations recorded coastal and orographically forced drizzle this morning, but accumulations topped out at a few hundredths of an inch. Current satellite imagery is showing breaks in the cloud cover as the high clouds move away, while as far as satellite imagery and observations show, lower clouds linger mainly along the coast of western San Mateo County and scattered throughout the coastal ranges. Breezy northwest winds will continue today with winds gusting to 20 to 30 miles per hour at the gaps and passes. Temperatures remain at or slightly below seasonal averages, with highs ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s along the coast, to the mid 60s to lower 70s at the Bayshore, and the mid 70s to lower 80s in the inland valleys. Low temperatures will hover between the low to mid 50s, with the upper 50s expected in the inland portions of the North and East Bays. Tuesday sees a pattern change as a ridge building in the eastern pacific impacts our state. High temperatures will warm quite dramatically with 10-20 degree increases expected across the region. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s at the immediate coast, to the upper 70s to mid 80s along the Bayshore, and in the 90s for the inland valleys with the warmest locations reaching 100. A Heat Advisory comes into effect Tuesday for the inland North Bay and East Bay, extending into Thursday. Moderate HeatRisk (corresponding to a risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive populations, such as children, the elderly, pregnant women, the ill, or those working outdoors) is expected for most of the inland Bay Area and Central Coast, with patches of Major HeatRisk (corresponding to a risk for heat-related illnesses for most people without adequate cooling or hydration) for the North Bay valleys. Here are some heat safety tips: * Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids. * Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing. * Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade. * Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles. * Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1256 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The heat event peaks on Wednesday with temperatures in the interior expected to remain in the mid 90s to lower 100s, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s expected at the coast. The Heat Advisory will extend to the South Bay and the inland Central Coast on Wednesday. The Southern Salinas Valley is now included in the second Heat Advisory as confidence in heat impacts has grown. Heat impacts will continue through Thursday, especially in the interior where moderate HeatRisk continues through the day, but most people should start to see a gradual cooldown as the ridge moves towards the north and east, allowing a weak trough to impact our region. A more noticeable cooldown begins on Friday, and by the upcoming weekend, high temperatures are expected to moderate to the mid 80s to lower 90s for the inland valleys and the upper 50s to mid 60s closer to the coast. CPC outlooks continue to show a lean towards temperatures above seasonal averages into the middle part of June. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 445 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A mix of low and high clouds are spanning the Bay Area and Central Coast this evening. Terminals north of the Monterey Bay are expected to remain VFR through the TAF period, but there is a small chance of MVFR stratus development at the favored locations, particularly SFO. Otherwise the main story remains strong NW winds in the afternoon, decreasing overnight and returning Tuesday afternoon. LLWS was removed from all TAFs due to a lack of reports last night and weaker winds aloft tonight. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with strong NW winds. Winds will gradually decrease overnight. The VFR conditions are expected to hold, though SFO has a 20% chance of developing an MVFR ceiling in the early morning. OAK and SJC are less likely to be impacted by any coastal stratus. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...After a brief improvement this afternoon, stratus is starting to return this evening and will likely lower to IFR or LIFR by early morning. The visibility may also drop, but shouldn`t be the limiting issue due to moderate surface winds. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 859 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A ridge extends NE from subtropical high pressure towards the Oregon coast. The gradient between this high pressure and lower pressure over the SW US is supporting a fresh to strong NW breeze tonight. Over the next few days, conditions will gradually worsen. The high pressure will push closer to the coast, tightening the gradient and causing winds to increase to a strong breeze on Tuesday. Meanwhile, large NW swell generated from a storm off the coast of Canada will arrive in the coastal waters of Northern and Central California. These rough seas will last through Thursday. Conditions will then gradually improve going into the weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 859 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening. A moderate-rough NW swell will arrive Wednesday and create large breaking waves and an increased risk for sneaker waves. Breaking waves will reach as high as 15-20 ft, especially along steep beaches. Sneaker waves can run over 100 ft up a dry beach, pulling people in the water from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Inexperienced swimmers should stay out of the water. Observe the ocean for 20 minutes before relaxing on the beach. The hot weather inland will lead to more people visiting the beach this week. Know where lifeguards are, obey their instructions, and never turn your back on the ocean! && .CLIMATE... Issued at 127 AM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Record high temperatures at the long term climate stations for June 4th and 5th: Station June 4th June 5th Santa Rosa 98 in 1949 102 in 1926 Kentfield 101 in 1981 102 in 1926 Napa 102 in 1981 105 in 1903 Richmond 90 in 1955 86 in 1983 Livermore 105 in 1960 104 in 1926 San Francisco 92 in 1949 95 in 1883 SFO Airport 92 in 1955, 1949 89 in 1972 Redwood City 100 in 1981 97 in 2002, 1972 Half Moon Bay 71 in 1955 74 in 1958 Oakland downtown 96 in 1981 87 in 2002 San Jose 98 in 1904 100 in 1926 Salinas Airport 92 in 1949 87 in 1949 King City 102 in 1981, 1957 105 in 1926 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for CAZ006-505-509-530. Heat Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to midnight PDT Thursday night for CAZ503-504-506-510-515. Heat Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to midnight PDT Thursday night for CAZ513-514-516-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea