098
FXUS64 KTSA 311946
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
246 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Mid level shortwave moving across northeast OK this afternoon,
with focus of showers and thunderstorms expected to be mainly on
the east side of the circulation. Coverage of storms should
increase some over the next few hours, but nothing in the way of
organized severe weather is expected. Localized heavy rain is a
possibility given the high PWAT values in place. As the low moves
off to the east this evening, expect a decrease in coverage from
west to east, with most of not all precip ending by 06z. Temps
have remained relatively cool throughout today with light winds,
lending some potential to fog development later tonight.

Storms forming currently over the Rocky Mountain Front should
organize to some degree and roll across the high plains, but he
environment this far east not favorable for this to have much
impact on our weather into tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A relatively quiet day in the recent unsettled pattern
anticipated Saturday, though there is some suggestion in model
data of a weak remnant circulation associated with any more
organized clusters of storms maintained overnight tonight, could
drift over the region. Most CAM solutions do develop at least
isolated storms across parts of the area, but coverage would
likely remain quite limited. A somewhat higher chance of a storm
complex maintaining into eastern OK Sunday morning continues to
be suggested, albeit in a weakening state.

The unsettled pattern continues early next week, with an overall
trend toward hotter and more humid conditions. Some potential
continues for a few more days for storm complexes to organize to
the west and move into the area, with Sunday night into Monday
still looking like the period of highest probability at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Mid level trough moving across the area will likely result in
an increase in SHRA/TSRA activity, mainly across far NE OK and NW
AR later this afternoon and evening. Coverage likely to remain low
enough to only include a VCTS at the AR sites from 21z-01z with
this issuance. MVFR cigs likely to prevail through at least the
first 6-9 hours of the valid period, with a period of VFR
conditions thereafter. Fog potential will increase late tonight,
especially across the E OK sites where higher rainfall as
occurred most recently. Will include tempo groups from 09z-13z
with MVFR cigs, IFR vsbys at KRVS and KBVO, and MVFR vsbys
elsewhere. MVFR cigs are expected to lift by late morning with VFR
elements prevailing for the remainder of the period at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  85  67  87 /  20  10  10  30
FSM   66  86  68  88 /  50  10  10  30
MLC   64  85  67  86 /  20  20  10  30
BVO   59  83  63  86 /  20  10  10  30
FYV   62  83  63  86 /  60  10  10  30
BYV   63  82  63  87 /  70  10  10  30
MKO   63  83  67  84 /  30  10  10  30
MIO   62  82  63  84 /  40  10  10  30
F10   62  83  66  84 /  10  20  10  30
HHW   65  83  68  84 /  20  20  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...23