Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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255 FXUS64 KTSA 020135 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 835 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 830 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 All is quiet at the moment with mostly clear skies across the area. However, a line of storms is moving into northwest OK, and will track towards the area overnight. Most model guidance weakens these storms on approach such that any impacts would be quite minimal. But given good instability, modest shear, and the model tendency to underestimate storms in this flow regime, there is at least a marginal chance of a few stronger storms Sunday morning in northeast OK. Most likely, the rest of the area will be dry. Lows will bottom out in the 60s across the area. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The overall weather pattern will remain active well into next week, with most days having at least some potential for showers and thunderstorms. On Sunday, a low chance for showers and thunderstorms will spread south and east through the afternoon hours as an upper level disturbance moves through the region. Sunday night and into Monday morning, storms that are expected to develop during late afternoon and evening well to the west of the area will move eastward into eastern Oklahoma and eventually parts of western Arkansas. A better chance for thunderstorms will accompany a stronger disturbance Monday and into Monday night. Tuesday night and into Wednesday, a front will sag into the area, providing yet another focus for shower and thunderstorm development. Instability during the early to mid week period will be supportive of severe weather, and along with modest deep layer shear, a limited to elevated threat will exist, especially during the afternoon and evening time frames. A stronger push of dry air from the north late in the week should bring a couple of dry days to the region. That looks to come to an end once again next weekend, with northwest flow aloft across the region and increasing potential for overnight thunderstorm complexes moving eastward into the region. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Ensemble guidance suggests patchy fog redevelopment toward dawn will be more limited to northwest AR and west of KMLC. Have maintained a low probability of MVFR conditions with this issuance across northwest AR with VFR conditions elsewhere. Decaying convective complex likely to skirt northern OK sites with a greater likelihood of VFR ceilings through the morning. Winds will remain light east-southeast overnight then turn more southerly Sunday afternoon with occasional gusts for northeast OK terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 67 87 71 86 / 10 20 40 50 FSM 67 89 70 87 / 0 30 20 50 MLC 67 88 72 86 / 10 30 30 50 BVO 65 86 69 85 / 20 30 40 50 FYV 62 86 68 84 / 0 30 20 60 BYV 60 86 68 84 / 0 20 20 60 MKO 67 86 70 84 / 10 30 30 50 MIO 63 84 68 82 / 10 30 30 60 F10 67 86 72 84 / 10 30 40 50 HHW 67 86 71 84 / 0 30 20 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...24