973
FXUS64 KTSA 311532
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1032 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A few areas of showers and storms continue this morning in
association with a mid level wave moving across E OK. Overall
coverage through 18z should remain low, but some increase in
coverage across far E OK and NW is likely after 18z with any
afternoon heating that the mid level wave interacts with as it
slowly moves east. That said, have adjusted PoPs some, mostly
lowering them across much of the area through 00z as most hi res
guidance suggests an overall lower coverage of showers/storms.
Ample cloud cover will keep temps down this afternooon, so the the
smaller diurnal rises reflected in max temps today look good.
Other than adjustments to PoPs, remaining first period elements
are in line and will be left as they are.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

After a relative lull on Saturday, PoPs/thunder chances increase
some on Sunday as a weak wave slides across. Higher rain/storm
chances are then expected Sunday night into Monday as a front
approaches from the north. Another relative lull in the action is
expected Tuesday before another potentially stronger shortwave
trough and associated cold front affect the Plains. The 12Z EC was
very amplified with this system and had a stronger cold front,
whereas the other global models were not near as aggressive.
Ensemble cluster analysis suggests that the 12Z EC solution had a
lower prob chance of verifying, and climatology would also argue
against it as well. Nevertheless, a front will push into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday with higher rain/storm
chances, and there`s definitely potential for an MCS to sweep
across the region during this time. If the stronger flow aloft
from the EC verifies, this MCS would have higher chances of being
severe. Mainly quiet weather is expected to close out the work
week.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Areas of light rain are ongoing across northwest AR this morning
with the rest of the area being dry. So far CIGS have not come
down much, but they are expected to overnight, with CIGS of 1-2
kft being common by daybreak. Low CIGS of 1-3 kft will persist
through the day Friday before breaking up in the evening.

Additional showers will develop across northwest AR overnight
through mid morning. Isolated showers will be possible for all
locations during much of the day tomorrow, elected to go with a
long period of vicinity showers in the TAF to cover this
possibility. An isolated thunderstorm could occur at any taf site,
but confidence was too low to include in the TAFs for now. Winds
will be light and variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  63  85  66 /  30  30  10  10
FSM   76  66  86  66 /  50  60  20  10
MLC   77  63  85  66 /  30  30  20  10
BVO   75  60  84  62 /  30  30  10  10
FYV   73  62  81  62 /  50  60  20  10
BYV   72  62  80  61 /  60  70  20   0
MKO   75  63  83  65 /  30  50  10  10
MIO   73  62  82  62 /  60  40  10  10
F10   75  62  84  65 /  30  30  10  10
HHW   77  65  84  67 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06