Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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366 FXUS63 KICT 191149 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 649 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms likely this afternoon and evening, mainly along and west of the Flint Hills between 4 PM and midnight. - Additional severe storm chances Tuesday afternoon-evening, mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike. - Additional off-and-on thunderstorm chances Thursday through early next week. - Above normal temperatures probable the next several days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 EARLY THIS MORNING...Stout 850-700mb warm/moist advection ahead of an approaching low amplitude shortwave is currently supporting a loosely organized thunderstorm complex over western Kansas. Thinking this activity could impact locations generally along/north of a line extending from Great Bend to Salina early this morning. A modest combination of effective deep layer shear and elevated instability could support 50 mph winds and small hail with the strongest storms. LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...A sharpening dryline over western Kansas ahead of an approaching low-amplitude shortwave will be the focus for thunderstorm development by late afternoon, mainly west of a line extending from Lincoln to Medicine Lodge. Despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures and only modest dryline convergence, decent mid-upper forcing should be enough to initiate isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Strong heating and seasonably rich low-level moisture amidst very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong instability, and deep layer shear (0-8km and 0-10km) of 50-65 kts oriented perpendicular to the dryline will support a couple of intense supercells initially, posing a threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes, especially if upscale growth is delayed a bit, and LCLs are lower than currently progged. Thereafter, impressive downdraft CAPE will likely support intense downdrafts, with eventual upscale growth into a few intense bow echoes likely further east through roughly the Flint Hills into the evening, aided by a strong low-level jet. Locally intense 80+ mph winds and large hail is possible with this activity, mainly along and west of the Flint Hills before midnight. Additionally, can`t rule out an isolated QLCS tornado or two associated with any intense bow echo. MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...Thunderstorm development is unlikely Monday afternoon-evening, due to large scale height rises and associated subsidence, which should tend to suppress widespread thunderstorm chances. However, convergence in vicinity of a triple point progged to be somewhere across central or south-central Kansas could prove sufficient for a stray thunderstorm or two to develop. Should this happen, strong buoyancy amidst strengthening deep layer shear would support supercells capable of all severe hazards. TUESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...A more synoptically evident severe weather event looks to take shape during this time period, as the parent western CONUS upper trough ejects onto the Great Plains, interacting with a very moist/unstable airmass in place across the region. Model consensus continues to highlight roughly the Flint Hills on east for the greatest severe weather potential, in vicinity of a dryline/cold front intersection. The best forcing looks to remain northeast of the region, which should keep storms a bit more isolated with southward extent. Should storms form, long hodographs oriented mostly perpendicular to the dryline in concert with strong to extreme instability would support intense supercells capable of all severe hazards. WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...After a break Wednesday, model consensus supports the potential for a continued off-and-on active pattern thunderstorm-wise across the Heartland Thursday through early next week, as another longwave trough takes shape across the western CONUS, ejecting various pieces of upper energy northeast onto Mid-America. Details on timing, amplitude, and placement of synoptic features continues to remain unclear at this time, which will have a big impact on severe weather implications. Stay tuned for later forecasts. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning over central Kansas, generally along and north of a line extending from Great Bend to Salina. Did not include mention in the 12z TAFs at this time, but will monitor for needed amendments. Otherwise, our attention turns to scattered to numerous thunderstorms moving in from the west late this afternoon and evening. Some of the storms will be severe, capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Covered this threat with PROB30 groups at all sites. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ADK